Oregon
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#48
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#99
Pace71.7#123
Improvement-1.4#302

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#29
First Shot+6.3#35
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#176
Layup/Dunks+6.0#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement+1.1#71

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#79
First Shot+3.9#76
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#198
Layups/Dunks+5.5#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#154
Freethrows-0.2#210
Improvement-2.5#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 3.1% 4.1% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 8.5% 10.8% 4.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.5% 45.0% 27.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.2% 40.6% 23.1%
Average Seed 8.4 8.2 8.9
.500 or above 80.8% 87.1% 69.7%
.500 or above in Conference 64.2% 68.6% 56.6%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.1% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.3% 2.6%
First Four6.2% 6.8% 5.3%
First Round35.4% 41.6% 24.7%
Second Round19.3% 23.1% 12.7%
Sweet Sixteen6.5% 8.0% 4.0%
Elite Eight2.7% 3.3% 1.7%
Final Four0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Michigan (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 25 - 38 - 10
Quad 36 - 213 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 94   Georgia W 82-71 68%     1 - 0 +16.2 +1.0 +13.5
  Nov 10, 2023 195   Montana W 75-61 91%     2 - 0 +9.3 +1.7 +8.3
  Nov 17, 2023 225   Tennessee St. W 92-67 93%     3 - 0 +18.9 +13.9 +4.7
  Nov 20, 2023 338   @ Florida A&M W 67-54 95%     4 - 0 +4.4 +0.1 +5.7
  Nov 24, 2023 125   Santa Clara L 82-88 76%     4 - 1 -3.2 +5.9 -8.8
  Nov 25, 2023 9   Alabama L 91-99 26%     4 - 2 +8.9 +13.4 -3.8
  Dec 02, 2023 55   Michigan W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 09, 2023 150   UTEP W 79-67 88%    
  Dec 12, 2023 198   California Baptist W 77-62 92%    
  Dec 17, 2023 95   Syracuse W 80-75 68%    
  Dec 21, 2023 108   Kent St. W 79-70 80%    
  Dec 28, 2023 32   USC W 75-74 52%    
  Dec 30, 2023 26   UCLA W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 04, 2024 65   @ Washington L 78-79 45%    
  Jan 06, 2024 64   @ Washington St. L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 13, 2024 153   California W 79-67 87%    
  Jan 18, 2024 38   @ Colorado L 72-77 34%    
  Jan 21, 2024 40   @ Utah L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 25, 2024 86   Arizona St. W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 27, 2024 2   Arizona L 79-85 29%    
  Feb 01, 2024 32   @ USC L 72-77 31%    
  Feb 03, 2024 26   @ UCLA L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 08, 2024 65   Washington W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 10, 2024 64   Washington St. W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 17, 2024 157   @ Oregon St. W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 22, 2024 98   @ Stanford W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 24, 2024 153   @ California W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 28, 2024 157   Oregon St. W 76-63 86%    
  Mar 02, 2024 2   @ Arizona L 76-88 14%    
  Mar 07, 2024 38   Colorado W 75-74 54%    
  Mar 09, 2024 40   Utah W 77-75 58%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.0 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.2 3.3 0.9 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.6 3.6 0.7 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.4 2.4 5.3 3.8 0.8 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.0 3.7 0.7 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 3.0 0.6 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.4 6.7 9.1 11.2 12.4 12.9 11.8 9.9 7.4 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.1% 0.5    0.4 0.1
17-3 72.6% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 47.2% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.2
15-5 19.6% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.1% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 2.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 3.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.8% 99.4% 15.7% 83.7% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
15-5 4.9% 97.1% 14.3% 82.8% 6.4 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 96.6%
14-6 7.4% 90.8% 11.8% 79.0% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.7 89.5%
13-7 9.9% 76.4% 8.9% 67.4% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.0 2.3 74.1%
12-8 11.8% 57.4% 7.0% 50.4% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 1.7 0.1 5.0 54.2%
11-9 12.9% 35.1% 6.4% 28.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.1 0.3 8.4 30.7%
10-10 12.4% 16.4% 4.7% 11.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.4 12.3%
9-11 11.2% 5.8% 4.5% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 1.3%
8-12 9.1% 3.1% 2.9% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.9 0.2%
7-13 6.7% 2.0% 2.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.6
6-14 4.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 4.3
5-15 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.4
4-16 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.2
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 38.5% 6.6% 31.9% 8.4 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.0 4.1 5.0 6.0 7.1 5.9 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 61.5 34.2%