Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +22.1 #4
Expected Predictive Rating +23.7 #7
Pace 70.5 #137
Improvement -1.6 #256

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #11 A A- B C+ C+
Defense #6 B+ B A+ B+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #106 1.34 #22 +5.5 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.76 #178 -0.2 #188
Three Pointers 39% #228 1.30 #1 +4.2 #50
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #5 +9.5 #5
Freethrows 0.34 #85 69% #281 0.23 #138
Second Chance 39.9% #9 1.09 #95 0.43 #22
Turnovers 14.7% #50
Total Offense +10.9 #11

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #356 1.17 #187 +6.1 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #30 0.68 #57 -1.4 #290
Three Pointers 45% #68 0.89 #36 +0.9 #141
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #38 +5.5 #38
Freethrows 0.24 #31 71% #111 0.17 #29
Second Chance 26.5% #53 0.95 #82 0.25 #43
Turnovers 23.3% #4
Total Defense +11.3 #6

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #154 -3.2% #15
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 18.0% #4 -7.9% #50
Possession Length 15.8 #45 18.7 #349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #48 0.12 #41
Improvement -1.6 #285 +0.0 #187

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.9% 5.2% 1.6%
#1 Seed 30.6% 31.9% 18.8%
Top 2 Seed 70.7% 72.4% 54.4%
Top 4 Seed 98.3% 98.7% 94.5%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.1 2.0 2.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 12.8% 13.8% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.6% 98.7% 97.8%
Sweet Sixteen74.5% 74.6% 73.6%
Elite Eight46.5% 46.8% 43.5%
Final Four26.3% 26.6% 23.2%
Championship Game14.6% 14.9% 11.4%
National Champion7.4% 7.6% 5.1%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 90.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 5
Quad 29 - 119 - 5
Quad 32 - 021 - 5
Quad 47 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 344 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88 - 50 100% +24  1 - 0 +23 +7 A F B+ +16 A+ C- A+
 Thu, Nov 6 271 Grambling St. W 102 - 62 99% +16  2 - 0 +31 +20 A A- A- +8 B- B+ A-
 Mon, Nov 10 73 Mississippi St. W 96 - 80 90% +11  3 - 0 +24 +21 A+ A+ B +2 C- F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 329 Stonehill W 96 - 57 100% +18  4 - 0 +26 +22 A+ C B- +4 F+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 18 St. John's W 83 - 82 67% +2  5 - 0 +19 +20 C A+ A+ -1 A- D+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 58 Creighton W 78 - 60 88% +10  6 - 0 +27 +10 C A+ A- +18 B A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 68 Syracuse W 95 - 64 90% +11  7 - 0 +39 +23 A+ C A+ +15 A- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 352 Alcorn St. W 132 - 68 100% +36  8 - 0 +48 +35 A+ A+ C+ +5 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 8 @Purdue W 81 - 58 43% +9  9 - 0 +47 +22 A+ C C +26 A+ A- A+
 Thu, Dec 11 21 Iowa W 66 - 62 79% -1  10 - 0 +18 +9 C+ C A+ +9 C+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 321 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 53 100% +15  11 - 0 +12 +3 C D B +9 B C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 255 Long Beach St. W 91 - 60 99% +29  12 - 0 +23 +9 A B+ C+ +12 A- A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 304 Houston Christian W 89 - 61 99% +12  13 - 0 +17 +13 F+ A+ A- +5 C A B
 Fri, Jan 2 57 West Virginia W 80 - 59 92% +10  14 - 0 1 - 0 +27 +25 A+ A C +5 B+ B B+
 Wed, Jan 7 47 @Baylor W 70 - 60 76% +3  15 - 0 2 - 0 +25 +3 D+ B C- +21 A+ D- A
 Sat, Jan 10 56 Oklahoma St. W 83 - 71 92% +3  16 - 0 3 - 0 +19 +9 C B A +9 B A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 12 @Kansas L 63 - 84 51% -15  16 - 1 3 - 1 +1 +7 B+ C D- -8 F+ A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 52 @Cincinnati L 70 - 79 80% -7  16 - 2 3 - 2 +4 +13 C+ A B- -9 C- D D-
 Tue, Jan 20 44 Central Florida W 87 - 57 89% +15  17 - 2 4 - 2 +39 +23 B+ A+ A+ +18 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 56 @Oklahoma St. W 84 - 71 82% +18  18 - 2 5 - 2 +26 +16 B+ A+ F +10 B A- A
 Thu, Jan 29 71 Colorado W 97 - 67 93% +22  19 - 2 6 - 2 +35 +27 A+ A+ B+ +9 A- A+ C+
 Sun, Feb 1 92 @Kansas St. W 95 - 61 88% +23  20 - 2 7 - 2 +43 +25 A+ C B- +18 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 47 Baylor W 84 - 70 90%
 Tue, Feb 10 51 @TCU W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 12 Kansas W 77 - 71 73%
 Mon, Feb 16 6 Houston W 73 - 69 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 15 @BYU W 80 - 79 52%
 Tue, Feb 24 105 @Utah W 86 - 71 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 19 Texas Tech W 80 - 72 76%
 Mon, Mar 2 2 @Arizona L 76 - 81 32%
 Sat, Mar 7 76 Arizona St. W 87 - 70 95%
Totals 27 - 4 14 - 4 +22 +11 A A- B +11 B+ B A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.7 7.0 4.2 12.8 1st
2nd 0.1 3.3 16.5 11.1 0.7 31.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 15.0 10.8 0.7 29.1 3rd
4th 0.7 6.5 6.9 0.3 14.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.5 0.6 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.8 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.4 14.4 25.9 29.1 18.8 4.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 86.1% 4.2    2.5 1.5 0.1
15-3 37.1% 7.0    1.7 3.9 1.4
14-4 5.7% 1.7    0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 4.3 5.8 2.3 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 4.8% 100.0% 32.6% 67.4% 1.3 3.5 1.3 0.1 100.0%
15-3 18.8% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 1.5 10.4 7.5 0.9 0.0 100.0%
14-4 29.1% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 1.8 10.6 14.1 4.0 0.4 100.0%
13-5 25.9% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.2 4.9 11.7 7.6 1.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.4% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 2.8 1.1 4.7 5.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 5.4% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 3.4 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.3% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 4.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 100.0%
9-9 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 1.1 86.6 13.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 100.0% 1.4 63.6 33.9 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 100.0% 1.4 64.0 33.6 2.4