Howard
Mid-Eastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 #276
Expected Predictive Rating -6.9 #277
Pace 72.3 #87
Improvement +0.0 #183

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #336 D- C+ D C C+
Defense #153 C D B- C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 0.95 #359 -0.1 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #174 0.63 #336 -1.3 #240
Three Pointers 33% #333 0.95 #267 -5.4 #334
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #348 -6.8 #348
Freethrows 0.31 #143 72% #200 0.23 #154
Second Chance 31.9% #148 1.11 #87 0.36 #103
Turnovers 19.1% #330
Total Offense -6.9 #336

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #79 1.16 #182 -2.4 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #309 0.66 #44 +2.4 #20
Three Pointers 41% #173 1.02 #187 -0.3 #192
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #189 -0.3 #189
Freethrows 0.33 #276 72% #164 0.24 #268
Second Chance 32.9% #281 1.18 #330 0.39 #327
Turnovers 18.0% #79
Total Defense +0.4 #153

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #103 1.7% #329
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.3% #356 -1.2% #165
Possession Length 17.7 #204 16.3 #30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #203 0.21 #312
Improvement -2.0 #288 +1.9 #66

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.4% 37.2% 28.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 86.1% 92.4% 74.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 96.9% 84.7%
Conference Champion 27.3% 36.0% 10.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four25.2% 25.9% 23.9%
First Round21.0% 23.6% 16.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 31 - 02 - 4
Quad 414 - 916 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 56 Missouri L 67 - 88 11% -14  0 - 1 -14 -6 C- D- C -8 D+ F A-
 Sun, Nov 9 288 Grambling St. L 70 - 73 65% -1  0 - 2 -13 -0 B+ A F -13 D- F A
 Thu, Nov 13 350 Alcorn St. W 72 - 64 80% +5  1 - 2 -7 -4 D A+ F -3 D A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 19 329 @Stetson L 60 - 64 54% -10  1 - 3 -11 -15 F F C+ +4 B C+ A
 Sat, Nov 22 349 Niagara W 80 - 70 71% -4  2 - 3 -2 -4 F+ C F +1 C- F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 3 @Duke L 56 - 93 1% -29  2 - 4 -10 -4 F C A- -6 D- B- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 286 @Mount St. Mary's L 75 - 79 41% -5  2 - 5 -8 +2 F A- A+ -10 F D- C
 Tue, Dec 9 293 N.C. A&T W 73 - 69 54% +8  3 - 5 -3 -2 B+ F F -1 A F B+
 Sat, Dec 13 235 Hampton W 61 - 57 41% +3  4 - 5 -0 -10 D F D+ +10 A+ B+ D+
 Tue, Dec 16 201 @Drexel W 74 - 66 26% +7  5 - 5 +8 +7 B- A- F +2 C C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 20 121 @UNC Wilmington W 67 - 66 13% +4  6 - 5 +7 -0 D+ B+ F +7 A+ F A-
 Tue, Dec 30 61 @Northwestern L 60 - 80 5% -5  6 - 6 -8 -2 C C+ F -8 F+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 359 @South Carolina St. L 57 - 58 70% -7  6 - 7 0 - 1 -13 -20 F C- F+ +7 C- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 332 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 57 - 69 54% +2  6 - 8 0 - 2 -20 -20 F D+ F +1 C- C+ B
 Mon, Jan 12 357 Delaware St. W 84 - 58 84% +14  7 - 8 1 - 2 +9 +16 C A+ A+ -4 C- F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 343 @NC Central W 83 - 69 59% +5  8 - 8 2 - 2 +5 +7 D A+ D -2 F B B
 Sat, Jan 24 356 Morgan St. L 77 - 78 84% +3  8 - 9 2 - 3 -18 -15 F A+ F -3 A F B
 Sat, Jan 31 298 Norfolk St. W 73 - 69 66%
 Mon, Feb 2 364 @Coppin St. W 78 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 359 South Carolina St. W 79 - 67 86%
 Mon, Feb 9 71 Yale L 69 - 80 14%
 Sat, Feb 14 332 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69 - 62 75%
 Mon, Feb 16 357 @Delaware St. W 70 - 65 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 343 NC Central W 75 - 67 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 356 @Morgan St. W 78 - 73 66%
 Mon, Mar 2 364 Coppin St. W 81 - 65 94%
 Thu, Mar 5 298 @Norfolk St. L 70 - 72 43%
Totals 15 - 12 9 - 5 -6 -7 D- C+ D +0 C D B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 6.7 13.6 6.8 27.3 1st
2nd 0.1 5.0 16.3 6.4 0.7 28.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 11.7 4.8 0.1 18.5 3rd
4th 0.6 6.7 5.8 0.2 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.8 0.5 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.5 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.4 14.0 23.1 28.0 20.2 7.5 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 90.9% 6.8    5.4 1.4 0.0
10-4 67.5% 13.6    6.5 6.0 1.1 0.0
9-5 23.9% 6.7    0.7 2.3 2.8 0.9 0.1
8-6 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 27.3% 27.3 12.6 9.7 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 7.5% 52.3% 52.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 3.6
10-4 20.2% 45.3% 45.3% 15.9 0.0 0.6 8.5 11.0
9-5 28.0% 36.5% 36.5% 16.0 0.3 10.0 17.8
8-6 23.1% 29.2% 29.2% 16.0 0.1 6.7 16.3
7-7 14.0% 21.8% 21.8% 16.0 0.0 3.0 10.9
6-8 5.4% 19.2% 19.2% 16.0 1.0 4.3
5-9 1.6% 19.3% 19.3% 16.0 0.3 1.3
4-10 0.3% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 34.4% 34.4% 0.0% 15.9 65.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 14.7 3.9 28.8 65.4 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%