N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 #293
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #263
Pace 72.4 #84
Improvement +1.7 #108

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #260 D+ C D A- D-
Defense #300 D+ B F+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.11 #230 -3.2 #291
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #39 0.80 #116 +3.8 #29
Three Pointers 37% #270 0.92 #296 -3.8 #310
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #279 -3.3 #278
Freethrows 0.37 #11 74% #134 0.28 #15
Second Chance 30.8% #169 1.07 #144 0.33 #151
Turnovers 18.5% #303
Total Offense -3.1 #260

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #98 1.15 #169 -1.8 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.84 #301 -0.8 #239
Three Pointers 38% #272 1.15 #334 -0.8 #215
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #281 -3.4 #282
Freethrows 0.34 #290 67% #21 0.23 #222
Second Chance 26.9% #60 0.96 #74 0.26 #46
Turnovers 12.1% #358
Total Defense -4.4 #300

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #328 0.5% #214
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.9% #242 6.1% #293
Possession Length 17.9 #227 16.2 #29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #95 0.26 #360
Improvement +3.1 #40 -1.5 #269

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 1.4% 4.3% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 3.3% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 65.5% 45.0% 70.8%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Away) - 20.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 13
Quad 47 - 610 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 90 @South Carolina L 72 - 91 7% -14  0 - 1 -10 -2 C F C- -7 D- D B
 Mon, Nov 10 359 South Carolina St. W 85 - 62 84% +14  1 - 1 +5 -7 D- F+ F +9 C A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 356 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 64% +4  2 - 1 -5 +1 C B F -6 D- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 136 @Davidson L 74 - 90 13% -9  2 - 2 -11 +9 A- D+ C+ -22 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 165 @Charlotte L 57 - 74 17% -13  2 - 3 -14 -13 F D F -2 D- C- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 343 @NC Central W 69 - 54 55% -1  3 - 3 +6 -10 F C F +16 A+ A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 9 276 Howard L 69 - 73 46% -8  3 - 4 -10 -2 F A+ F+ -9 F A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 12 332 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 79 72% -2  4 - 4 -11 +5 C B+ D -16 C F F
 Tue, Dec 16 305 @UNC Greensboro W 71 - 65 42% +6  5 - 4 +1 -2 F D+ D +3 B C+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 121 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 25% +1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -9 -1 C- D- B+ -8 F+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 256 Northeastern L 74 - 85 53% -4  5 - 6 0 - 2 -19 -0 F+ C+ C+ -20 F+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 238 @Stony Brook L 80 - 81 28% -4  5 - 7 0 - 3 -2 +12 D+ A+ D+ -14 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 193 Elon L 64 - 69 41% -6  5 - 8 0 - 4 -10 -13 F B+ F+ +3 A B- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 133 @William & Mary L 89 - 97 13% -7  5 - 9 0 - 5 -3 +12 A+ C F+ -14 F B- F+
 Mon, Jan 19 235 @Hampton L 61 - 82 27% -5  5 - 10 0 - 6 -22 -6 D- F C+ -18 D+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 129 Hofstra W 79 - 78 27% -5  6 - 10 1 - 6 -0 +8 C- A+ C+ -8 C+ A F
 Sat, Jan 24 163 Towson W 80 - 73 35% +4  7 - 10 2 - 6 +4 +7 A+ D+ F -3 D- A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 186 @Monmouth L 69 - 78 21%
 Sat, Jan 31 201 @Drexel L 66 - 74 23%
 Thu, Feb 5 160 @College of Charleston L 73 - 83 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 207 Campbell L 80 - 82 43%
 Fri, Feb 13 235 Hampton L 71 - 74 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 160 College of Charleston L 76 - 80 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 193 @Elon L 76 - 84 22%
 Thu, Feb 26 121 @UNC Wilmington L 67 - 80 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 133 William & Mary L 80 - 86 28%
 Tue, Mar 3 207 @Campbell L 77 - 85 24%
Totals 10 - 17 5 - 13 -7 -3 D+ C D -4 D+ B F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.2 2.4 2.9 0.1 5.6 10th
11th 0.2 3.0 6.3 1.4 0.0 11.0 11th
12th 0.2 2.9 9.4 13.0 5.1 0.2 30.8 12th
13th 6.9 15.7 15.7 6.7 0.6 0.0 45.6 13th
Total 7.1 18.6 25.3 22.8 14.8 7.5 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 2.9
7-11 7.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.4
6-12 14.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.7
5-13 22.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.8
4-14 25.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.3
3-15 18.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.6
2-16 7.1% 7.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.6%