N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#310
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#259
Pace72.7#91
Improvement-1.1#258

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#311
First Shot-4.3#297
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#243
Layup/Dunks-4.5#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#332
Freethrows+3.9#16
Improvement+0.4#149

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#285
First Shot-4.5#324
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#106
Layups/Dunks-4.9#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows-1.5#277
Improvement-1.5#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.4 15.2
.500 or above 4.6% 9.3% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 5.9% 8.8% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 50.3% 43.2% 53.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 31.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 47 - 69 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 87 @South Carolina L 72-91 6%     0 - 1 -9.9 -1.5 -7.0
  Mon, Nov 10 360 South Carolina St. W 85-62 80%     1 - 1 +5.3 -6.8 +8.9
  Tue, Nov 18 359 @Morgan St. W 79-73 61%     2 - 1 -5.6 +0.1 -5.7
  Fri, Nov 28 127 @Davidson L 74-90 10%     2 - 2 -10.8 +8.2 -20.0
  Tue, Dec 2 194 @Charlotte L 57-74 19%     2 - 3 -16.4 -12.3 -5.2
  Sat, Dec 6 350 @NC Central W 69-54 52%     3 - 3 +5.7 -8.2 +13.4
  Tue, Dec 9 299 Howard L 69-73 46%     3 - 4 -11.6 -3.9 -7.8
  Fri, Dec 12 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82-79 72%     4 - 4 -11.7 +4.0 -15.7
  Tue, Dec 16 281 @UNC Greensboro L 73-78 32%    
  Mon, Dec 29 108 UNC Wilmington L 67-77 19%    
  Wed, Dec 31 209 Northeastern L 73-75 41%    
  Sat, Jan 3 197 @Stony Brook L 67-76 20%    
  Thu, Jan 8 190 Elon L 77-81 36%    
  Thu, Jan 15 121 @William & Mary L 74-89 9%    
  Mon, Jan 19 229 @Hampton L 67-75 24%    
  Thu, Jan 22 114 Hofstra L 68-77 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 139 Towson L 66-73 26%    
  Thu, Jan 29 220 @Monmouth L 70-78 23%    
  Sat, Jan 31 272 @Drexel L 67-73 29%    
  Thu, Feb 5 170 @College of Charleston L 68-79 16%    
  Sat, Feb 7 228 Campbell L 75-77 43%    
  Fri, Feb 13 229 Hampton L 68-73 34%    
  Thu, Feb 19 170 College of Charleston L 71-76 33%    
  Sat, Feb 21 190 @Elon L 74-84 19%    
  Thu, Feb 26 108 @UNC Wilmington L 64-80 8%    
  Sat, Feb 28 121 William & Mary L 77-86 22%    
  Tue, Mar 3 228 @Campbell L 72-80 24%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.6 1.7 0.1 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.9 3.4 0.4 13.2 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 5.1 7.9 5.0 0.8 0.0 20.4 12th
13th 2.2 7.0 11.0 10.5 5.2 1.1 0.0 37.1 13th
Total 2.2 7.2 12.4 16.1 16.6 14.6 11.5 8.4 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 29.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
9-9 3.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
8-10 5.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.0
7-11 8.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.4
6-12 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-13 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
4-14 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.6
3-15 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.1
2-16 12.4% 12.4
1-17 7.2% 7.2
0-18 2.2% 2.2
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%