Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +23.5 #3
Expected Predictive Rating +29.3 #4
Pace 67.7 #215
Improvement -0.2 #197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #5 A A+ C+ B+ A
Defense #4 A- A+ A- A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #26 1.35 #21 +8.3 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #363 1.07 #2 -4.2 #350
Three Pointers 48% #46 1.08 #96 +4.9 #40
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #7 +9.0 #7
Freethrows 0.37 #17 73% #165 0.27 #26
Second Chance 40.5% #5 1.23 #19 0.50 #3
Turnovers 15.7% #129
Total Offense +11.9 #5

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #326 0.93 #6 +7.4 #11
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #74 0.68 #60 -0.4 #217
Three Pointers 44% #98 0.93 #72 +0.6 #152
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #12 +7.6 #12
Freethrows 0.22 #10 71% #99 0.15 #12
Second Chance 22.8% #7 0.78 #5 0.18 #3
Turnovers 20.2% #21
Total Defense +11.6 #4

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.5% #5 -1.8% #47
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.6% #18 -13.3% #11
Possession Length 15.4 #33 19.4 #364
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #82 0.13 #57
Improvement +1.1 #127 -1.4 #264

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 21.3% 22.7% 13.2%
#1 Seed 70.0% 72.1% 57.4%
Top 2 Seed 97.0% 97.8% 92.1%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.3 1.3 1.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 94.1% 95.8% 84.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.5% 99.5% 99.2%
Sweet Sixteen81.3% 81.6% 79.3%
Elite Eight57.5% 58.1% 54.1%
Final Four36.3% 37.3% 30.4%
Championship Game21.6% 22.3% 17.3%
National Champion12.7% 13.3% 9.2%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 37 - 3
Quad 1b8 - 115 - 3
Quad 26 - 021 - 3
Quad 33 - 024 - 3
Quad 46 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 33 Texas W 75 - 60 81% +5  1 - 0 +29 +9 B- C C +21 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 274 Western Carolina W 95 - 54 99% +23  2 - 0 +32 +8 D+ A+ B- +20 A+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 335 @Army W 114 - 59 99% +23  3 - 0 +47 +25 A+ A+ C+ +17 A+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 196 Indiana St. W 100 - 62 99% +19  4 - 0 +33 +17 A- A+ C- +13 A A+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 17 Kansas W 78 - 66 70% +3  5 - 0 +30 +20 A A+ B +11 A+ B C-
 Fri, Nov 21 349 Niagara W 100 - 42 100% +30  6 - 0 +43 +29 A+ A+ C+ +19 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 276 Howard W 93 - 56 99% +29  7 - 0 +28 +18 A+ B- B+ +9 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 21 Arkansas W 80 - 71 73% +1  8 - 0 +26 +12 C+ A+ C +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 5 Florida W 67 - 66 70% +5  9 - 0 +19 +8 A B+ D+ +11 A+ A A
 Sat, Dec 6 7 @Michigan St. W 66 - 60 50% +0  10 - 0 +30 +14 B- B A+ +17 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 169 Lipscomb W 97 - 73 99% +5  11 - 0 +20 +9 B A+ F +8 B- A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 15 Texas Tech L 81 - 82 70% +4  11 - 1 +17 +15 A+ B- C+ +3 D+ A B-
 Wed, Dec 31 111 Georgia Tech W 85 - 79 97% +0  12 - 1 1 - 0 +7 +12 A- C+ C- -6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 105 @Florida St. W 91 - 87 92% +0  13 - 1 2 - 0 +11 +22 A+ A D+ -11 F F A
 Tue, Jan 6 19 @Louisville W 84 - 73 62% -2  14 - 1 3 - 0 +31 +14 A+ F+ B +16 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 37 SMU W 82 - 75 88% +4  15 - 1 4 - 0 +18 +12 A+ C C +6 D A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 69 @California W 71 - 56 87% +3  16 - 1 5 - 0 +26 +11 C+ A+ B- +17 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 84 @Stanford W 80 - 50 90% +15  17 - 1 6 - 0 +40 +21 A- A+ B+ +22 A+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 68 Wake Forest W 90 - 69 94% +9  18 - 1 7 - 0 +26 +27 A- A+ A+ +1 C A+ C-
 Mon, Jan 26 19 Louisville W 83 - 52 80% +12  19 - 1 8 - 0 +45 +22 A+ A+ C- +26 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 59 @Virginia Tech W 80 - 69 85%
 Tue, Feb 3 132 Boston College W 81 - 56 99%
 Sat, Feb 7 28 @North Carolina W 80 - 74 71%
 Tue, Feb 10 92 @Pittsburgh W 79 - 64 92%
 Sat, Feb 14 32 Clemson W 75 - 63 87%
 Mon, Feb 16 76 Syracuse W 84 - 65 96%
 Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 77 - 78 46%
 Tue, Feb 24 81 @Notre Dame W 77 - 64 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 22 Virginia W 78 - 68 82%
 Mon, Mar 2 24 @North Carolina St. W 79 - 74 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 28 North Carolina W 83 - 71 86%
Totals 28 - 3 17 - 1 +24 +12 A A+ C+ +12 A- A+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.5 10.3 25.5 34.5 22.2 94.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.1 0.3 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 12.5 25.7 34.5 22.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 22.2    22.2
17-1 100.0% 34.5    34.4 0.1
16-2 99.0% 25.5    22.3 3.0 0.1
15-3 82.6% 10.3    5.6 3.9 0.8 0.0
14-4 40.7% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 94.1% 94.1 84.7 7.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 22.2% 100.0% 60.0% 40.0% 1.2 18.9 3.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 34.5% 100.0% 53.6% 46.4% 1.2 26.9 7.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 25.7% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 1.4 16.8 8.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.5% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.6 6.1 5.5 0.9 0.1 100.0%
14-4 3.8% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 1.9 1.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.1% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 2.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.2% 100.0% 42.1% 57.9% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 51.7% 48.4% 1.3 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.9% 100.0% 1.1 90.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 100.0% 1.1 89.7 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 100.0% 1.1 85.3 14.7