Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.6#2
Expected Predictive Rating+28.1#3
Pace67.7#229
Improvement-0.8#227

Offense
Total Offense+11.0#10
First Shot+6.8#27
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#13
Layup/Dunks+4.5#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#41
Freethrows+1.1#112
Improvement-0.3#211

Defense
Total Defense+11.6#2
First Shot+11.7#3
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#197
Layups/Dunks+6.1#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#267
Freethrows+5.8#2
Improvement-0.5#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 12.8% 12.9% 6.4%
#1 Seed 49.0% 49.2% 31.7%
Top 2 Seed 81.4% 81.6% 64.0%
Top 4 Seed 97.6% 97.7% 93.9%
Top 6 Seed 99.7% 99.7% 99.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.8 1.8 2.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
Conference Champion 64.4% 64.6% 52.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.1% 98.1% 96.3%
Sweet Sixteen77.9% 78.0% 71.0%
Elite Eight53.5% 53.6% 42.1%
Final Four32.3% 32.4% 20.7%
Championship Game18.5% 18.6% 13.1%
National Champion9.9% 10.0% 7.3%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 37 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 113 - 4
Quad 27 - 120 - 4
Quad 33 - 023 - 4
Quad 46 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 41 Texas W 75-60 84%     1 - 0 +26.8 +9.5 +18.1
  Sat, Nov 8 296 Western Carolina W 95-54 99%     2 - 0 +30.6 +9.9 +17.2
  Tue, Nov 11 332 @Army W 114-59 99%     3 - 0 +47.5 +27.6 +14.9
  Fri, Nov 14 181 Indiana St. W 100-62 99%     4 - 0 +33.6 +18.4 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 18 17 Kansas W 78-66 71%     5 - 0 +28.9 +20.3 +9.3
  Fri, Nov 21 353 Niagara W 100-42 99.8%    6 - 0 +41.9 +28.7 +17.8
  Sun, Nov 23 299 Howard W 93-56 99%     7 - 0 +26.4 +15.9 +10.2
  Thu, Nov 27 21 Arkansas W 80-71 75%     8 - 0 +24.6 +13.5 +11.1
  Tue, Dec 2 13 Florida W 67-66 77%     9 - 0 +15.9 +7.4 +8.6
  Sat, Dec 6 12 @Michigan St. W 66-60 56%     10 - 0 +27.0 +11.6 +15.9
  Tue, Dec 16 142 Lipscomb W 85-61 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 24 Texas Tech W 77-69 76%    
  Wed, Dec 31 130 Georgia Tech W 83-59 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 104 @Florida St. W 86-70 93%    
  Tue, Jan 6 10 @Louisville W 79-78 53%    
  Sat, Jan 10 38 SMU W 83-69 89%    
  Wed, Jan 14 81 @California W 79-67 87%    
  Sat, Jan 17 92 @Stanford W 82-68 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 42 Wake Forest W 82-68 90%    
  Mon, Jan 26 10 Louisville W 82-75 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 63 @Virginia Tech W 80-69 84%    
  Tue, Feb 3 148 Boston College W 81-56 99%    
  Sat, Feb 7 23 @North Carolina W 76-72 65%    
  Tue, Feb 10 107 @Pittsburgh W 78-62 92%    
  Sat, Feb 14 35 Clemson W 76-63 88%    
  Mon, Feb 16 68 Syracuse W 81-63 95%    
  Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 74-78 34%    
  Tue, Feb 24 55 @Notre Dame W 75-65 81%    
  Sat, Feb 28 26 Virginia W 79-68 83%    
  Mon, Mar 2 29 @North Carolina St. W 79-73 69%    
  Sat, Mar 7 23 North Carolina W 79-69 83%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.6 14.2 20.8 17.1 7.3 64.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 7.4 5.9 1.5 0.1 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.8 9.1 15.2 20.5 22.3 17.1 7.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.3    7.3 0.0
17-1 99.7% 17.1    16.4 0.6
16-2 93.3% 20.8    16.5 4.0 0.2
15-3 69.0% 14.2    7.1 5.6 1.3 0.1
14-4 30.1% 4.6    1.1 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 5.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 64.4% 64.4 48.5 12.3 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.3% 100.0% 64.7% 35.3% 1.1 6.3 1.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 17.1% 100.0% 57.2% 42.8% 1.2 13.4 3.6 0.1 100.0%
16-2 22.3% 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% 1.4 14.8 6.9 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-3 20.5% 100.0% 44.0% 56.0% 1.6 9.5 9.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.2% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 2.0 3.9 7.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.1% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 2.6 0.9 3.4 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.8% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 3.3 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.2% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 3.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.0% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.3% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.1% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 44.8% 55.2% 1.8 49.0 32.4 11.9 4.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 84.0 16.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 86.7 13.3