Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.5 #329
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #307
Pace 69.0 #171
Improvement +4.3 #22

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #307 D+ D D C- C-
Defense #329 D D C- B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #329 1.20 #129 -3.1 #290
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #159 0.73 #206 +0.1 #172
Three Pointers 46% #73 0.92 #306 +0.4 #158
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #254 -2.6 #253
Freethrows 0.29 #230 69% #287 0.20 #248
Second Chance 25.1% #320 0.96 #304 0.24 #333
Turnovers 18.4% #298
Total Offense -5.1 #307

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #189 1.34 #351 -3.5 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #237 0.88 #340 -0.4 #215
Three Pointers 43% #126 1.04 #213 -1.3 #242
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #329 -5.2 #329
Freethrows 0.27 #90 72% #173 0.20 #99
Second Chance 30.9% #200 1.23 #348 0.38 #315
Turnovers 15.2% #255
Total Defense -5.4 #329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #263 0.5% #217
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.1% #245 9.6% #334
Possession Length 18.3 #266 16.3 #34
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #286 0.19 #248
Improvement +3.0 #44 +1.3 #100

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 18.6% 29.9% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.6% 4.6% 19.4%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 45.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 49 - 109 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 109 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 6% -17  0 - 1 -24 -9 D F F -13 D- F C
 Mon, Nov 10 40 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 2% -18  0 - 2 -25 -11 F C- D+ -10 D- B+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 274 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 25% -8  0 - 3 -14 -14 F C- C+ +0 F B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 276 Howard W 64 - 60 46% +10  1 - 3 -5 -8 F+ F F +3 A A F
 Sat, Nov 22 353 VMI W 99 - 80 71% +9  2 - 3 +3 +23 A+ B B- -19 F D F
 Tue, Nov 25 151 Wright St. L 62 - 79 22% -15  2 - 4 -20 -9 D C+ D- -12 F D- B+
 Sat, Nov 29 282 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 37% +3  2 - 5 -9 -7 D+ C- F -2 D+ C+ C
 Sun, Nov 30 203 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 16% -12  2 - 6 -18 -3 F D+ B -17 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 75 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 4% -4  2 - 7 -11 -16 D- D F +4 B D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 90 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 4% -15  2 - 8 -22 -12 F D- A- -13 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 54 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 2% -25  2 - 9 -40 -13 F C- F -28 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 1 330 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 39% +0  3 - 9 1 - 0 -5 -3 B F F -1 B- D C+
 Sat, Jan 3 219 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 17% -13  3 - 10 1 - 1 -20 +2 B+ D+ F -23 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 169 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 26% +11  4 - 10 2 - 1 +4 +9 A+ F B+ -6 D- B- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 172 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 26% -7  4 - 11 2 - 2 -16 -4 D- B- C -12 C- D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 328 West Georgia W 95 - 86 61% +4  5 - 11 3 - 2 -4 +11 A+ D F -16 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 199 Queens L 81 - 87 32% -8  5 - 12 3 - 3 -12 +1 C D+ D+ -13 D B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 169 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 OT 12% -5  5 - 13 3 - 4 -3 -6 C- F F +4 B- A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 23 172 @Austin Peay L 65 - 73 12% -0  5 - 14 3 - 5 -6 -2 D D- B- -4 C F B-
 Thu, Jan 29 348 @North Florida L 84 - 85 46%
 Sat, Jan 31 330 North Alabama W 76 - 73 61%
 Thu, Feb 5 303 @Bellarmine L 75 - 80 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 263 @Eastern Kentucky L 73 - 81 23%
 Thu, Feb 12 285 Jacksonville L 69 - 70 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 232 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72 - 81 19%
 Thu, Feb 19 219 Central Arkansas L 72 - 76 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 348 North Florida W 87 - 82 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 285 @Jacksonville L 66 - 72 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 232 Florida Gulf Coast L 75 - 78 38%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -10 -5 D+ D D -5 D D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.2 2.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 6.4 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 8.2 4.0 0.4 14.4 6th
7th 0.3 7.2 6.4 0.6 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.1 3.8 9.1 1.6 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 8.4 4.0 0.1 13.5 9th
10th 0.1 4.9 6.5 0.5 12.0 10th
11th 0.1 2.2 5.9 1.5 0.0 9.7 11th
12th 0.9 2.8 1.6 0.0 5.4 12th
Total 1.0 5.1 13.4 20.5 22.6 18.7 11.4 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.3% 5.9% 5.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-8 5.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 5.2
9-9 11.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.3
8-10 18.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 18.4
7-11 22.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 22.5
6-12 20.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 20.5
5-13 13.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
4-14 5.1% 5.1
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%