UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#108
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#77
Pace62.4#342
Improvement-0.5#213

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#87
First Shot-0.4#181
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#16
Layup/Dunks-1.3#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#247
Freethrows+1.7#85
Improvement+0.6#127

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#164
First Shot+0.1#165
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#198
Layups/Dunks+3.7#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#308
Freethrows+2.7#44
Improvement-1.1#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 23.2% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 94.5% 90.5%
Conference Champion 33.1% 34.0% 24.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.6% 23.2% 16.8%
Second Round2.9% 3.0% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 91.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 37 - 48 - 6
Quad 416 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 131 @Kent St. L 77-86 46%     0 - 1 -4.2 +2.3 -6.2
  Sat, Nov 15 262 South Carolina Upstate W 73-60 87%     1 - 1 +4.5 +7.7 -1.4
  Tue, Nov 18 280 East Carolina W 85-60 89%     2 - 1 +15.5 +13.4 +3.2
  Fri, Nov 21 255 @Radford W 81-73 72%     3 - 1 +5.8 +6.5 -0.6
  Wed, Nov 26 258 SE Louisiana W 70-57 87%     4 - 1 +4.7 +4.3 +1.9
  Fri, Nov 28 204 Navy W 87-57 82%     5 - 1 +24.2 +19.4 +7.0
  Sat, Nov 29 357 Gardner-Webb W 88-62 96%     6 - 1 +8.8 +7.7 +1.4
  Wed, Dec 3 161 Marshall W 70-69 74%     7 - 1 -1.9 +3.8 -5.6
  Sat, Dec 6 325 @Louisiana W 70-63 84%     8 - 1 +0.3 +3.7 -2.7
  Sat, Dec 13 213 @Valparaiso W 73-70 66%     9 - 1 +2.7 +9.4 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 20 299 Howard W 78-64 91%    
  Mon, Dec 29 310 @N.C. A&T W 77-67 81%    
  Wed, Dec 31 272 Drexel W 74-61 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 229 Hampton W 74-63 84%    
  Thu, Jan 8 209 @Northeastern W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 197 @Stony Brook W 71-68 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 228 Campbell W 79-68 83%    
  Thu, Jan 22 121 @William & Mary L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 229 @Hampton W 71-66 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 139 @Towson L 66-67 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 121 William & Mary W 79-75 63%    
  Mon, Feb 9 170 @College of Charleston W 72-70 55%    
  Thu, Feb 12 190 Elon W 80-71 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 114 Hofstra W 71-68 62%    
  Thu, Feb 19 220 Monmouth W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 228 @Campbell W 76-71 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 310 N.C. A&T W 80-64 92%    
  Sat, Feb 28 170 College of Charleston W 75-67 75%    
  Tue, Mar 3 190 @Elon W 77-74 59%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.9 8.5 9.3 6.7 3.0 0.7 33.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.7 7.5 5.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.7 6.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.2 0.3 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.1 5.5 8.5 11.9 15.0 15.7 15.1 11.5 7.0 3.1 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.5% 3.0    3.0 0.1
16-2 95.4% 6.7    5.9 0.7 0.0
15-3 80.7% 9.3    6.7 2.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 56.6% 8.5    4.2 3.5 0.9 0.1
13-5 25.0% 3.9    1.1 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.1% 33.1 21.7 8.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 52.5% 50.2% 2.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4.6%
17-1 3.1% 42.0% 42.0% 11.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8
16-2 7.0% 39.8% 39.8% 12.0 0.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.2
15-3 11.5% 35.0% 35.0% 12.3 0.2 2.4 1.3 0.1 7.5
14-4 15.1% 28.4% 28.4% 12.6 0.1 1.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.8
13-5 15.7% 24.1% 24.1% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 11.9
12-6 15.0% 19.3% 19.3% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.7 0.0 12.1
11-7 11.9% 14.6% 14.6% 13.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 10.2
10-8 8.5% 9.7% 9.7% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 7.7
9-9 5.5% 6.8% 6.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.2
8-10 3.1% 4.1% 4.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
7-11 1.6% 4.2% 4.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.8% 4.8% 4.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 8.6 9.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 77.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.4 1.0 1.0 1.9 3.8 13.3 11.4 56.2 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 7.0% 11.0 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 5.7% 11.0 5.7