UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.6 #121
Expected Predictive Rating +5.6 #90
Pace 63.9 #310
Improvement -1.6 #260

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #132 D+ B- C+ B- D+
Defense #128 C+ C+ D B+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #269 1.10 #258 -2.9 #286
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #108 0.68 #301 +0.3 #160
Three Pointers 41% #185 0.97 #241 -1.2 #222
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #293 -3.8 #290
Freethrows 0.35 #41 71% #239 0.25 #79
Second Chance 35.4% #52 1.06 #153 0.37 #73
Turnovers 15.2% #109
Total Offense +1.4 #132

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #346 1.26 #299 +3.4 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #72 0.80 #254 -1.9 #322
Three Pointers 46% #52 0.89 #39 +0.4 #158
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #120 +2.0 #120
Freethrows 0.23 #15 74% #288 0.17 #23
Second Chance 26.8% #58 1.09 #251 0.29 #107
Turnovers 13.6% #330
Total Defense +1.2 #128

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #273 -2.1% #34
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.2% #286 -1.8% #149
Possession Length 18.9 #318 17.6 #217
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #312 0.18 #222
Improvement -2.6 #313 +1.0 #129

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.5% 26.4% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 71.8% 81.5% 62.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.5% 26.4% 22.6%
Second Round1.5% 1.7% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Away) - 49.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 38 - 48 - 6
Quad 416 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 143 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 44% -8  0 - 1 -5 +3 F B+ A+ -7 F B- F+
 Sat, Nov 15 307 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 90% +8  1 - 1 +1 +7 D+ A+ D+ -3 B- D C
 Tue, Nov 18 262 East Carolina W 85 - 60 85% +12  2 - 1 +16 +14 A+ C C- +3 B- B+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 253 @Radford W 81 - 73 68% +8  3 - 1 +6 +5 B- B- F +1 C- B B
 Wed, Nov 26 265 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 86% -1  4 - 1 +4 +5 D C- A- +1 B- B F
 Fri, Nov 28 178 Navy W 87 - 57 75% +21  5 - 1 +26 +21 A+ A+ F +7 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 98% +12  6 - 1 +5 +6 B- D A- -1 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 168 Marshall W 70 - 69 72% +1  7 - 1 -3 +3 F C+ A+ -6 B+ F+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 314 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 80% +3  8 - 1 +1 +4 D C C -2 C- C- D
 Sat, Dec 13 167 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 50% -2  9 - 1 +5 +10 D- A+ B+ -5 A- F F
 Sat, Dec 20 276 Howard L 66 - 67 87% -4  9 - 2 -10 -5 F B+ C- -5 C C- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 293 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 75% -1  10 - 2 1 - 0 +5 +5 C C- D- -1 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 201 Drexel W 65 - 53 78% +8  11 - 2 2 - 0 +6 +2 F+ B- A+ +6 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 235 Hampton W 49 - 45 82% +4  12 - 2 3 - 0 -3 -18 F D+ D+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 256 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 68% +1  13 - 2 4 - 0 +7 +7 F B- C -1 C B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 238 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 65% -8  14 - 2 5 - 0 +3 +6 C+ B+ C -3 C+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 207 Campbell W 78 - 75 79% -4  15 - 2 6 - 0 -3 +3 C- F A+ -6 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 133 @William & Mary L 70 - 77 42% -11  15 - 3 6 - 1 -2 -3 F C- C +0 B B D-
 Sat, Jan 24 235 @Hampton W 75 - 67 64% +3  16 - 3 7 - 1 +7 +16 C A+ B+ -8 D D- F+
 Thu, Jan 29 163 @Towson W 65 - 64 50%
 Thu, Feb 5 133 William & Mary W 79 - 75 64%
 Mon, Feb 9 160 @College of Charleston L 72 - 73 49%
 Thu, Feb 12 193 Elon W 78 - 70 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 129 Hofstra W 73 - 69 64%
 Thu, Feb 19 186 Monmouth W 72 - 65 76%
 Sat, Feb 21 207 @Campbell W 77 - 75 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 293 N.C. A&T W 80 - 67 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 160 College of Charleston W 75 - 69 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 193 @Elon W 75 - 73 56%
Totals 23 - 6 14 - 4 +3 +1 D+ B- C+ +1 C+ C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 4.7 15.7 21.8 17.9 9.5 2.0 71.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 6.8 5.7 0.9 0.0 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.5 2.8 0.4 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.3 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.9 7.8 14.6 21.7 22.7 17.9 9.5 2.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0
16-2 100.0% 9.5    9.5
15-3 99.9% 17.9    17.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 95.9% 21.8    18.1 3.6 0.2
13-5 72.1% 15.7    7.9 6.3 1.3 0.1
12-6 32.2% 4.7    0.8 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.1
11-7 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 71.8% 71.8 55.8 12.1 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.0% 42.2% 42.2% 11.9 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2
16-2 9.5% 34.2% 34.2% 12.5 0.1 1.7 1.3 0.1 6.2
15-3 17.9% 28.8% 28.8% 12.8 0.0 1.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 12.8
14-4 22.7% 27.1% 27.1% 13.1 1.1 3.6 1.5 0.0 16.6
13-5 21.7% 22.5% 22.5% 13.2 0.5 2.7 1.6 0.0 16.8
12-6 14.6% 19.5% 19.5% 13.5 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.1 11.8
11-7 7.8% 12.7% 12.7% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 6.8
10-8 2.9% 11.2% 11.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.5
9-9 0.7% 5.8% 5.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 13.0 75.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 11.9 23.5 68.2 7.1 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%