Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.4 #258
Expected Predictive Rating -5.9 #255
Pace 66.4 #249
Improvement +2.0 #92

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #207 C D- C+ D+ C-
Defense #291 D+ C D- A+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #221 1.20 #125 -0.1 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #117 0.75 #181 +1.1 #118
Three Pointers 40% #211 0.98 #230 -1.4 #231
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #190 -0.5 #189
Freethrows 0.26 #310 73% #177 0.19 #297
Second Chance 22.1% #353 1.04 #197 0.23 #343
Turnovers 15.7% #133
Total Offense -1.5 #207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #24 1.22 #264 -5.2 #344
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #176 0.74 #149 +0.1 #174
Three Pointers 34% #347 1.11 #299 +2.0 #109
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #280 -3.2 #278
Freethrows 0.20 #5 66% #9 0.14 #3
Second Chance 29.0% #118 1.12 #284 0.33 #200
Turnovers 12.7% #346
Total Defense -3.9 #291

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #252 1.0% #261
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.0% #175 5.5% #284
Possession Length 16.9 #130 17.9 #272
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #180 0.13 #50
Improvement +2.3 #67 -0.3 #214

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 27.1% 20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 94.4% 98.6% 92.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 99.7% 97.5%
Conference Champion 30.5% 59.2% 18.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.5% 11.4% 11.5%
First Round17.1% 21.5% 15.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Away) - 28.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 417 - 717 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 85 @Dayton L 71 - 77 9% -4  0 - 1 +4 +10 C+ B+ C -6 D+ D- D
 Tue, Nov 11 356 @Morgan St. W 81 - 79 71% +6  1 - 1 -9 +0 A+ F F -10 D+ F+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 324 Wagner W 71 - 70 OT 77% -1  2 - 1 -12 -15 F B F +3 B B- B-
 Wed, Nov 19 65 @George Washington L 52 - 89 7% -24  2 - 2 -25 -18 F F D+ -6 F A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 357 Delaware St. W 71 - 57 86% +8  3 - 2 -3 -1 C F C -1 C+ C F
 Wed, Dec 3 89 @Georgetown L 81 - 90 9% -11  3 - 3 +0 +16 B B- A+ -16 F C- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 323 @Bucknell W 73 - 66 55% +4  4 - 3 +0 +5 B- F D -4 C B- D+
 Tue, Dec 9 185 Buffalo L 79 - 83 48% +1  4 - 4 -9 +5 B C- C -14 F B- C
 Fri, Dec 12 335 Army L 60 - 63 80% -5  4 - 5 -17 -18 F+ F C+ +1 B B- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 67 @South Florida L 69 - 94 7% -15  4 - 6 -14 -2 D C D+ -10 F+ D+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 364 @Coppin St. W 93 - 59 86% +18  5 - 6 +17 +10 D A+ C+ +6 C A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 336 Maine W 69 - 62 80% +6  6 - 6 1 - 0 -7 +0 C- F A -7 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 320 New Hampshire W 75 - 74 75% -3  7 - 6 2 - 0 -12 +6 A- F A+ -18 F F D
 Thu, Jan 15 344 @Bryant L 74 - 79 OT 63% -1  7 - 7 2 - 1 -14 +0 B- F D+ -14 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 362 @Binghamton W 78 - 60 77% +9  8 - 7 3 - 1 +5 +7 C+ D- A -1 C- C F
 Thu, Jan 22 339 NJIT W 87 - 74 80% +14  9 - 7 4 - 1 -1 +9 B- D+ A+ -10 F+ C- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 319 Umass Lowell W 79 - 56 75% +12  10 - 7 5 - 1 +11 +5 D+ C- C +7 A- A- F
 Thu, Jan 29 198 @Vermont L 68 - 74 29%
 Sat, Jan 31 309 @Albany W 73 - 72 50%
 Thu, Feb 5 362 Binghamton W 78 - 64 90%
 Thu, Feb 12 336 @Maine W 67 - 64 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 320 @New Hampshire W 72 - 71 55%
 Thu, Feb 19 198 Vermont W 72 - 71 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 309 Albany W 76 - 70 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 344 Bryant W 73 - 64 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 319 @Umass Lowell W 76 - 75 53%
 Tue, Mar 3 339 @NJIT W 74 - 71 61%
Totals 16 - 11 11 - 5 -5 -1 C D- C+ -4 D+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.5 9.6 10.9 5.2 1.0 30.5 1st
2nd 0.0 2.3 12.2 18.4 11.1 2.0 45.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 5.6 5.9 1.2 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 3.1 0.5 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.4 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.1 11.4 18.8 23.0 20.7 12.9 5.2 1.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
14-2 100.0% 5.2    4.7 0.5
13-3 84.5% 10.9    7.5 3.4 0.0
12-4 46.5% 9.6    4.3 5.0 0.3 0.0
11-5 15.1% 3.5    0.7 1.9 0.8 0.1
10-6 1.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 30.5% 30.5 18.2 10.9 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 1.0% 40.3% 40.3% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6
14-2 5.2% 37.7% 37.7% 15.4 0.1 1.0 0.9 3.2
13-3 12.9% 32.3% 32.3% 15.8 0.0 0.9 3.3 8.7
12-4 20.7% 25.9% 25.9% 15.9 0.0 0.6 4.8 15.4
11-5 23.0% 22.1% 22.1% 15.9 0.3 4.8 17.9
10-6 18.8% 17.7% 17.7% 16.0 0.1 3.3 15.5
9-7 11.4% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4 10.0
8-8 5.1% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 0.6 4.5
7-9 1.6% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.1 1.4
6-10 0.3% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 15.8 77.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.2 15.7 47.0 37.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%