Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #201
Expected Predictive Rating -4.2 #230
Pace 61.1 #352
Improvement +7.5 #2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #273 C D+ D D C
Defense #122 C+ C C- C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #209 1.07 #279 -2.3 #265
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.70 #268 -0.7 #216
Three Pointers 42% #149 1.14 #30 +3.2 #78
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #167 +0.3 #167
Freethrows 0.27 #288 66% #349 0.18 #330
Second Chance 30.4% #190 0.87 #353 0.27 #286
Turnovers 18.7% #317
Total Offense -3.9 #273

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #161 1.11 #111 +0.4 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #60 0.79 #247 -2.1 #324
Three Pointers 36% #310 0.96 #101 +3.7 #46
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #118 +2.0 #118
Freethrows 0.31 #208 74% #266 0.23 #224
Second Chance 32.1% #255 1.02 #139 0.33 #204
Turnovers 15.4% #239
Total Defense +1.5 #122

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #196 -0.9% #96
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #166 -3.1% #125
Possession Length 19.6 #349 17.2 #150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #247 0.20 #263
Improvement -0.3 #196 +7.8 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 5.9% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 44.3% 50.6% 24.2%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 80.9% 52.7%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round5.2% 5.7% 3.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 76.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 34 - 84 - 12
Quad 412 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 139 @Saint Joseph's L 65 - 76 26% -1  0 - 1 -7 -5 F B- D -2 B- A- D
 Tue, Nov 11 214 @Colgate L 83 - 90 41% -7  0 - 2 -7 +9 A C D+ -17 F C- B+
 Sat, Nov 15 76 Syracuse L 50 - 80 17% -10  0 - 3 -22 -15 D+ F F -10 C- D D-
 Tue, Nov 18 332 NJIT W 75 - 43 85% +13  1 - 3 +18 -2 C- D+ C +21 A+ A- A-
 Fri, Nov 21 192 Penn L 68 - 84 60% -9  1 - 4 -21 -5 D- C- B -17 D+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 225 Old Dominion W 75 - 71 66% +1  2 - 4 -3 +5 B- B- D+ -7 C- C- D+
 Tue, Nov 25 355 @Morgan St. W 71 - 66 80% +7  3 - 4 -6 -2 C- F F -3 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 233 @American L 73 - 75 45% +1  3 - 5 -3 +4 B+ F B- -7 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 208 La Salle L 64 - 69 51% -8  3 - 6 -8 -6 F B+ C -2 D+ C D-
 Tue, Dec 16 274 Howard L 66 - 74 75% -7  3 - 7 -17 -5 C+ F D -13 F F+ A
 Fri, Dec 19 291 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 67 77% +11  4 - 7 -2 -2 A+ D+ F -0 D D A+
 Sun, Dec 21 336 Maine W 74 - 56 86% +9  5 - 7 +4 +16 A+ D F -8 C+ F B-
 Mon, Dec 29 154 @College of Charleston L 63 - 72 29% +1  5 - 8 0 - 1 -6 -0 C+ D F -7 D- F C+
 Wed, Dec 31 115 @UNC Wilmington L 53 - 65 21% -8  5 - 9 0 - 2 -6 -9 F B F +1 B+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 134 Hofstra L 67 - 70 46% -8  5 - 10 0 - 3 -4 +4 C D A+ -9 C- F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 223 Stony Brook W 56 - 37 66% +7  6 - 10 1 - 3 +12 -8 F B+ F +24 A+ D D
 Sat, Jan 10 135 William & Mary W 64 - 58 46% +5  7 - 10 2 - 3 +5 -6 A+ F+ F +11 A+ A B-
 Thu, Jan 15 199 @Monmouth W 73 - 51 38% +14  8 - 10 3 - 3 +23 +15 A+ A F+ +11 A- C+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 168 @Towson L 58 - 59 33% +7  8 - 11 3 - 4 +1 -5 B+ F+ F +6 A D C
 Sat, Jan 24 252 Northeastern W 83 - 78 71% +6  9 - 11 4 - 4 -3 +4 B F A+ -8 C+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 237 Hampton W 58 - 51 68% +3  10 - 11 5 - 4 -0 -9 F C D- +10 B A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 288 N.C. A&T W 74 - 66 76%
 Thu, Feb 5 222 @Campbell L 70 - 72 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 183 @Elon L 68 - 72 35%
 Thu, Feb 12 199 Monmouth W 66 - 63 60%
 Mon, Feb 16 223 @Stony Brook L 64 - 66 44%
 Thu, Feb 19 252 @Northeastern L 71 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 168 Towson W 62 - 61 55%
 Thu, Feb 26 222 Campbell W 73 - 69 65%
 Tue, Mar 3 134 @Hofstra L 63 - 70 27%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 8 -2 -4 C D+ D +1 C+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 4.2 1.5 0.2 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 7.4 3.4 0.4 13.7 3rd
4th 0.6 8.3 5.9 0.6 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 4.5 9.0 1.1 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.7 9.7 2.8 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.1 3.9 6.8 0.3 11.1 7th
8th 0.6 6.5 1.3 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.1 3.1 3.7 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.6 2.8 0.6 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.3 2.2 7.8 15.5 22.9 23.2 16.9 8.4 2.4 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 32.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1
13-5 18.8% 0.5    0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 28.2% 28.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
13-5 2.4% 20.5% 20.5% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.9
12-6 8.4% 10.2% 10.2% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 7.6
11-7 16.9% 7.8% 7.8% 15.1 0.2 0.9 0.2 15.5
10-8 23.2% 5.8% 5.8% 15.2 0.1 0.9 0.3 21.9
9-9 22.9% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.4 0.4 22.1
8-10 15.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 15.2
7-11 7.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.7
6-12 2.2% 2.2
5-13 0.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 15.0 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.0 5.0 95.0
Lose Out 0.2%