Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.9 #71
Expected Predictive Rating +9.2 #65
Pace 65.9 #261
Improvement -1.4 #252

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #39 B A- B B- C+
Defense #159 C C C- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #51 1.12 #216 +2.3 #105
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.91 #23 +1.5 #99
Three Pointers 36% #286 1.23 #6 +1.2 #137
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #53 +5.0 #53
Freethrows 0.32 #131 79% #9 0.25 #71
Second Chance 34.7% #68 1.25 #13 0.43 #24
Turnovers 14.3% #59
Total Offense +7.7 #39

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.19 #234 +1.9 #114
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #195 0.79 #243 -0.2 #200
Three Pointers 46% #51 0.99 #142 -1.9 #272
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #184 -0.1 #184
Freethrows 0.29 #153 70% #83 0.20 #124
Second Chance 30.4% #175 1.07 #227 0.33 #204
Turnovers 15.1% #258
Total Defense +0.2 #159

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #135 -0.5% #125
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.9% #57 0.6% #193
Possession Length 17.9 #232 17.8 #261
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #324 0.14 #79
Improvement -4.2 #352 +2.8 #38

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.5% 66.2% 56.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 95.2% 96.4% 81.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round65.5% 66.2% 56.5%
Second Round11.8% 12.0% 8.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.3% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Home) - 92.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 310 - 312 - 4
Quad 411 - 123 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 178 @Navy W 97 - 68 73% +14  1 - 0 +31 +20 A A+ B+ +8 C C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 176 @Quinnipiac W 97 - 60 73% +18  2 - 0 +39 +24 A+ A+ C- +14 B+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 238 Stony Brook W 86 - 79 92% +7  3 - 0 -0 +18 A+ B- C- -17 F D- C+
 Tue, Nov 18 109 Rhode Island L 77 - 86 76% -0  3 - 1 -8 +10 C- A+ C+ -19 F D+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 244 Green Bay W 73 - 67 88% +6  4 - 1 +1 +4 B- B- D+ -2 A+ F D
 Sun, Nov 23 160 College of Charleston W 74 - 63 78% +9  5 - 1 +11 +7 A- D+ C+ +5 B+ A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 62 Akron W 97 - 94 46% +6  6 - 1 +12 +31 A+ B+ A+ -19 F F B-
 Sun, Nov 30 198 @Vermont W 77 - 74 76% +3  7 - 1 +3 +13 C C A+ -9 F C B
 Sun, Dec 7 138 Illinois-Chicago W 80 - 66 82% +4  8 - 1 +12 +13 D- A+ A+ +0 A B+ F+
 Wed, Dec 10 309 Albany W 93 - 82 93% +6  9 - 1 +2 +12 B- D C+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 16 @Alabama L 78 - 102 11% -19  9 - 2 -3 +13 C+ A+ A- -17 C F+ F+
 Mon, Jan 5 264 @Brown W 70 - 53 84% +3  10 - 2 1 - 0 +14 +1 C+ B F +14 A+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 10 212 @Princeton L 60 - 76 78% -2  10 - 3 1 - 1 -16 -7 F B B- -10 F D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 174 Cornell W 102 - 68 87% +21  11 - 3 2 - 1 +30 +19 A- A- A+ +10 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 170 Columbia W 91 - 74 86% +9  12 - 3 3 - 1 +13 +23 A+ A+ C -9 B F D
 Sat, Jan 24 194 @Penn W 77 - 60 75% +5  13 - 3 4 - 1 +18 +8 C B F +11 B A- C
 Fri, Jan 30 237 Dartmouth W 87 - 72 92%
 Sat, Jan 31 177 Harvard W 78 - 66 87%
 Fri, Feb 6 264 Brown W 79 - 62 94%
 Mon, Feb 9 276 @Howard W 80 - 69 86%
 Fri, Feb 13 237 @Dartmouth W 84 - 75 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 177 @Harvard W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 194 Penn W 85 - 72 89%
 Fri, Feb 27 174 @Cornell W 92 - 86 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 170 @Columbia W 81 - 75 71%
 Sat, Mar 7 212 Princeton W 80 - 66 90%
Totals 21 - 5 11 - 3 +8 +8 B A- B +0 C C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.8 12.1 25.6 32.9 21.8 95.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.1 0.1 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.9 13.2 25.6 32.9 21.8 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 21.8    21.8
12-2 100.0% 32.9    32.9 0.0
11-3 99.8% 25.6    24.3 1.3
10-4 91.8% 12.1    8.5 3.4 0.2
9-5 56.5% 2.8    0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1
8-6 8.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 95.2% 95.2 88.0 6.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 21.8% 73.3% 73.2% 0.1% 11.3 0.1 0.4 10.0 5.4 0.1 5.8 0.3%
12-2 32.9% 69.2% 69.1% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 4.6 16.3 1.8 0.0 10.1 0.1%
11-3 25.6% 62.3% 62.3% 12.2 0.9 11.8 3.1 0.1 9.7
10-4 13.2% 57.9% 57.9% 12.4 0.1 4.6 2.7 0.2 5.5
9-5 4.9% 51.7% 51.7% 12.6 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.2 2.4
8-6 1.3% 42.9% 42.9% 12.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7
7-7 0.3% 30.6% 30.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-8 0.1% 0.1
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 65.5% 65.5% 0.0% 11.9 34.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.3% 100.0% 11.3 0.5 2.8 66.5 29.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5% 0.4% 11.5 0.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6% 0.4% 11.0 0.4