Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#79
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#53
Pace66.7#257
Improvement-4.2#353

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#23
First Shot+7.7#20
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#115
Layup/Dunks+4.5#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
Freethrows+2.6#48
Improvement-2.8#349

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#221
First Shot-3.1#275
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#70
Layups/Dunks-0.3#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#290
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#290
Freethrows+1.7#77
Improvement-1.4#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 2.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.8% 64.8% 55.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 2.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.9 11.1 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.6% 98.9%
Conference Champion 75.3% 82.0% 74.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
First Round56.8% 64.6% 55.8%
Second Round12.2% 17.5% 11.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 4.1% 2.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 10.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 02 - 1
Quad 38 - 310 - 4
Quad 413 - 123 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 204 @Navy W 97-68 75%     1 - 0 +29.2 +18.7 +8.3
  Tue, Nov 11 169 @Quinnipiac W 97-60 69%     2 - 0 +39.2 +24.9 +13.6
  Sat, Nov 15 197 Stony Brook W 86-79 88%     3 - 0 +1.6 +18.5 -16.3
  Tue, Nov 18 115 Rhode Island L 77-86 75%     3 - 1 -8.7 +9.5 -18.7
  Fri, Nov 21 276 Green Bay W 73-67 89%     4 - 1 -0.1 +5.6 -4.9
  Sun, Nov 23 170 College of Charleston W 74-63 78%     5 - 1 +10.2 +5.9 +5.1
  Mon, Nov 24 65 Akron W 97-94 46%     6 - 1 +11.4 +28.8 -17.2
  Sun, Nov 30 186 @Vermont W 77-74 72%     7 - 1 +4.3 +12.2 -7.5
  Sun, Dec 7 189 Illinois-Chicago W 80-66 87%     8 - 1 +9.2 +10.0 +0.2
  Wed, Dec 10 328 Albany W 93-82 94%     9 - 1 +0.9 +10.6 -10.2
  Mon, Dec 29 15 @Alabama L 82-95 11%    
  Mon, Jan 5 218 @Brown W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 261 @Princeton W 79-69 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 164 Cornell W 93-82 84%    
  Mon, Jan 19 137 Columbia W 83-74 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 256 @Penn W 85-75 81%    
  Fri, Jan 30 245 Dartmouth W 87-72 92%    
  Sat, Jan 31 200 Harvard W 80-67 88%    
  Fri, Feb 6 218 Brown W 78-64 90%    
  Mon, Feb 9 299 @Howard W 83-71 86%    
  Fri, Feb 13 245 @Dartmouth W 84-75 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 200 @Harvard W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 256 Penn W 88-72 92%    
  Fri, Feb 27 164 @Cornell W 90-85 66%    
  Sat, Feb 28 137 @Columbia W 80-77 60%    
  Sat, Mar 7 261 Princeton W 82-66 92%    
Projected Record 21 - 5 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 6.9 16.2 22.1 19.5 9.2 75.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.4 6.2 3.7 0.8 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 4.1 8.1 13.7 19.9 22.9 19.5 9.2 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 9.2    9.2
13-1 100.0% 19.5    19.2 0.3
12-2 96.4% 22.1    19.6 2.4 0.0
11-3 81.3% 16.2    11.2 4.7 0.3
10-4 50.5% 6.9    2.9 3.2 0.8 0.0
9-5 17.3% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
8-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 75.3% 75.3 62.3 11.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 9.2% 75.3% 74.2% 1.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 3.9 1.5 0.0 2.3 4.1%
13-1 19.5% 69.1% 68.8% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.4 7.2 0.6 0.0 6.0 1.0%
12-2 22.9% 61.6% 61.6% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 2.6 9.5 2.0 0.0 8.8 0.1%
11-3 19.9% 54.6% 54.6% 0.0% 12.2 0.8 7.1 2.8 0.2 9.0 0.0%
10-4 13.7% 47.6% 47.6% 12.5 0.1 3.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.2
9-5 8.1% 42.8% 42.8% 12.7 0.0 1.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.6
8-6 4.1% 31.7% 31.7% 12.9 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.8
7-7 1.7% 12.8% 12.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
6-8 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.7
5-9 0.2% 0.2
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 56.8% 56.7% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 12.9 30.6 10.5 1.2 0.0 43.2 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 8.1 4.6 9.8 12.7 11.7 11.4 17.9 14.7 16.6 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 14.6% 10.9 2.1 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 17.6% 10.8 2.9 14.7