Missouri
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.0 #56
Expected Predictive Rating +12.4 #46
Pace 67.5 #223
Improvement -0.3 #198

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #51 B B+ D+ C+ B-
Defense #81 B- B C+ C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #46 1.34 #24 +7.3 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #241 0.71 #249 -1.6 #261
Three Pointers 38% #239 1.07 #100 -0.2 #189
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #48 +5.5 #48
Freethrows 0.35 #40 66% #338 0.23 #127
Second Chance 35.3% #54 1.21 #24 0.43 #27
Turnovers 17.8% #272
Total Offense +6.6 #51

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #352 1.03 #41 +7.1 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #58 0.71 #100 -1.0 #265
Three Pointers 46% #54 1.06 #249 -3.5 #315
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #91 +2.7 #91
Freethrows 0.28 #102 74% #270 0.21 #133
Second Chance 28.0% #91 0.96 #64 0.27 #62
Turnovers 17.0% #141
Total Defense +3.3 #81

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #79 -2.3% #26
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #54 -3.0% #127
Possession Length 16.6 #109 18.7 #338
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #61 0.13 #62
Improvement -2.4 #306 +2.2 #59

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.6% 45.5% 26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.4% 45.3% 26.1%
Average Seed 9.5 9.4 9.8
.500 or above 93.7% 97.6% 84.8%
.500 or above in Conference 35.9% 44.6% 16.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 4.3%
First Four11.5% 12.0% 10.4%
First Round33.0% 38.8% 20.0%
Second Round12.0% 14.3% 6.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.4% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Home) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 55 - 11
Quad 23 - 38 - 14
Quad 31 - 010 - 14
Quad 49 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 276 @Howard W 88 - 67 89% +14  1 - 0 +18 +15 A A+ F+ +2 C- A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 246 Southeast Missouri St. W 89 - 84 94% +2  2 - 0 -3 +6 A+ D F -9 F A- A
 Sun, Nov 9 353 VMI W 106 - 68 98% +11  3 - 0 +22 +16 D+ A+ B +3 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 72 Minnesota W 83 - 60 69% +3  4 - 0 +28 +24 A+ A+ A- +6 B B+ B-
 Mon, Nov 17 345 Prairie View W 91 - 73 98% +19  5 - 0 +3 +4 C+ C+ C- -3 B C D-
 Thu, Nov 20 287 South Dakota W 102 - 68 96% +14  6 - 0 +24 +16 A+ B+ F +6 B F+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 359 South Carolina St. W 98 - 66 99% +24  7 - 0 +14 +17 F+ A+ B -3 B B- F+
 Fri, Nov 28 321 Cleveland St. W 86 - 59 97% +19  8 - 0 +14 +3 C+ A+ F +12 B+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 81 @Notre Dame L 71 - 76 49% +1  8 - 1 +5 +5 C+ C- D- +0 C A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 17 @Kansas L 60 - 80 15% -8  8 - 2 +1 +2 C C+ D+ -3 B+ D C
 Thu, Dec 11 318 Alabama St. W 85 - 77 97% +11  9 - 2 -4 +16 A+ A+ C -20 F F F
 Sun, Dec 14 248 Bethune-Cookman W 82 - 60 94% +15  10 - 2 +14 +9 B+ A+ F +6 A- F+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 6 Illinois L 48 - 91 16% -17  10 - 3 -22 -12 D- D- F+ -16 B- F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 5 Florida W 76 - 74 22% +1  11 - 3 1 - 0 +20 +15 A+ A- C+ +5 A- A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 27 @Kentucky W 73 - 68 22% -0  12 - 3 2 - 0 +23 +12 A+ D C +12 B+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 64 @Mississippi L 69 - 76 43% +1  12 - 4 2 - 1 +5 +6 A+ D+ D+ -2 B C+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 25 Auburn W 84 - 74 40% +4  13 - 4 3 - 1 +23 +16 A+ C- C- +7 A+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 47 @LSU L 70 - 78 34% -7  13 - 5 3 - 2 +6 +11 D+ A+ F+ -6 A F D-
 Tue, Jan 20 29 Georgia L 72 - 74 43% -2  13 - 6 3 - 3 +10 +6 B D+ B- +4 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 54 Oklahoma W 88 - 87 OT 61% -0  14 - 6 4 - 3 +8 +10 C A+ C- -2 D A+ B
 Tue, Jan 27 16 @Alabama L 64 - 90 15% -12  14 - 7 4 - 4 -5 -5 F+ A D +2 B A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 73 Mississippi St. W 77 - 72 69%
 Sat, Feb 7 90 @South Carolina W 73 - 72 53%
 Wed, Feb 11 30 @Texas A&M L 76 - 84 23%
 Sat, Feb 14 33 Texas L 78 - 79 46%
 Wed, Feb 18 12 Vanderbilt L 76 - 82 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 21 @Arkansas L 77 - 87 17%
 Tue, Feb 24 20 Tennessee L 71 - 75 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 73 @Mississippi St. L 74 - 75 46%
 Tue, Mar 3 54 @Oklahoma L 76 - 79 39%
 Sat, Mar 7 21 Arkansas L 80 - 84 35%
Totals 18 - 13 8 - 10 +10 +7 B B+ D+ +3 B- B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 0.3 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.1 3.0 5th
6th 0.4 3.1 1.1 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 4.0 0.2 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 6.6 1.9 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.5 5.9 6.6 0.4 13.4 9th
10th 0.1 4.4 10.2 2.6 0.1 17.3 10th
11th 0.0 2.3 9.6 5.2 0.3 17.4 11th
12th 0.6 6.1 5.1 0.5 12.3 12th
13th 0.1 1.9 4.4 0.8 0.0 7.1 13th
14th 0.3 2.2 0.9 0.0 3.4 14th
15th 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.3 15th
16th 0.2 0.1 0.3 16th
Total 1.1 5.5 13.9 20.4 23.2 19.1 10.6 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 15.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.3% 98.0% 2.4% 95.6% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.0%
11-7 4.7% 95.0% 1.2% 93.8% 8.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 94.9%
10-8 10.6% 86.9% 0.7% 86.2% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 0.5 1.4 86.8%
9-9 19.1% 72.0% 0.4% 71.6% 9.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 5.5 2.7 5.3 71.9%
8-10 23.2% 36.5% 0.2% 36.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.5 0.1 14.8 36.3%
7-11 20.4% 10.3% 0.1% 10.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.1 18.3 10.2%
6-12 13.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.8 0.7%
5-13 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 5.5 0.1%
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.6% 0.3% 39.2% 9.5 60.4 39.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%