Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#199
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#109
Pace71.2#138
Improvement+0.0#188

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#213
First Shot-0.9#196
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#229
Layup/Dunks+0.1#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#323
Freethrows+1.9#79
Improvement-0.9#250

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#199
First Shot-0.6#196
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks+3.9#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#273
Freethrows-1.7#289
Improvement+0.8#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 6.8% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 50.3% 51.9% 22.4%
.500 or above in Conference 51.0% 52.0% 33.6%
Conference Champion 4.7% 4.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 9.0% 16.7%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round6.4% 6.6% 2.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Away) - 94.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 44 - 11
Quad 410 - 314 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 38 @SMU L 76-96 6%     0 - 1 -4.9 +6.3 -10.5
  Wed, Nov 5 34 @LSU L 60-96 5%     0 - 2 -20.2 -4.2 -17.0
  Sat, Nov 8 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85-77 64%     1 - 2 +1.7 +13.1 -11.3
  Tue, Nov 11 271 Merrimack W 76-62 73%     2 - 2 +5.2 -3.9 +8.4
  Fri, Nov 14 32 @Baylor L 81-94 5%     2 - 3 +3.3 +9.6 -5.8
  Thu, Nov 20 208 @Rice W 90-74 41%     3 - 3 +15.8 +11.3 +3.6
  Mon, Dec 1 78 @Cincinnati L 58-76 12%     3 - 4 -7.5 -4.9 -2.4
  Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 81-64 95%    
  Fri, Dec 19 343 Florida A&M W 80-68 86%    
  Mon, Dec 29 176 @Texas Arlington L 68-72 34%    
  Thu, Jan 1 84 Utah Valley L 70-76 28%    
  Sat, Jan 3 126 California Baptist L 71-73 43%    
  Thu, Jan 8 219 Abilene Christian W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Jan 15 316 @Southern Utah W 78-74 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 264 @Utah Tech L 72-73 50%    
  Wed, Jan 21 176 @Texas Arlington L 68-72 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 219 Abilene Christian W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 84 Utah Valley L 70-76 29%    
  Sat, Jan 31 264 Utah Tech W 75-69 71%    
  Thu, Feb 5 126 @California Baptist L 68-76 25%    
  Sat, Feb 7 316 @Southern Utah W 78-74 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 219 @Abilene Christian L 68-70 43%    
  Thu, Feb 19 316 Southern Utah W 81-71 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 264 Utah Tech W 75-69 70%    
  Thu, Feb 26 84 @Utah Valley L 67-79 14%    
  Sat, Feb 28 126 @California Baptist L 68-76 25%    
  Thu, Mar 5 176 Texas Arlington W 71-69 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.8 4.5 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.8 7.4 5.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 21.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.5 7.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 22.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.8 7.1 4.4 1.2 0.1 19.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.2 4.3 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 7th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.8 9.4 12.2 13.3 13.7 12.3 9.9 7.0 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.2% 0.4    0.3 0.0
15-3 87.1% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 59.7% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.0
13-5 29.3% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.1
12-6 7.9% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.4% 27.3% 27.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.0% 26.8% 26.8% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.3% 28.3% 28.3% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7
13-5 4.4% 20.0% 20.0% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 3.5
12-6 7.0% 17.5% 17.5% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.8
11-7 9.9% 11.4% 11.4% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 8.8
10-8 12.3% 7.6% 7.6% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 11.3
9-9 13.7% 4.6% 4.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 13.0
8-10 13.3% 2.5% 2.5% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.0
7-11 12.2% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.9
6-12 9.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.4
5-13 6.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.7
4-14 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.3 1.8 0.6 93.4 0.0%