Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #187
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #200
Pace 75.6 #33
Improvement -2.6 #294

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #195 C C+ C- B C-
Defense #192 D- D A- F+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #35 1.06 #289 +1.6 #118
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #60 0.81 #100 +3.3 #42
Three Pointers 28% #362 1.08 #95 -5.8 #337
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #204 -0.9 #203
Freethrows 0.34 #68 77% #44 0.26 #37
Second Chance 32.2% #138 1.11 #91 0.36 #98
Turnovers 17.4% #251
Total Offense -1.2 #195

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #209 1.31 #339 -2.7 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #330 0.90 #351 +0.9 #121
Three Pointers 47% #39 1.08 #271 -4.5 #335
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #345 -6.2 #345
Freethrows 0.40 #361 71% #128 0.29 #355
Second Chance 31.0% #201 1.21 #342 0.37 #308
Turnovers 21.0% #12
Total Defense -0.7 #192

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #239 1.3% #291
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.0% #190 10.7% #342
Possession Length 17.6 #197 15.6 #8
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #46 0.15 #130
Improvement -2.4 #307 -0.1 #203

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 8.7% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 32.3% 48.3% 21.6%
.500 or above in Conference 18.0% 31.5% 9.0%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.7% 14.3% 33.3%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round6.5% 8.5% 5.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 34 - 55 - 11
Quad 48 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 37 @SMU L 76 - 96 5% -7  0 - 1 -3 +6 D C D -8 D- A+ C
 Wed, Nov 5 47 @LSU L 60 - 96 8% -19  0 - 2 -22 -6 F C+ B -17 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 77 62% +13  1 - 2 +3 +14 A- A+ C+ -11 D- D B-
 Tue, Nov 11 206 Merrimack W 76 - 62 65% +5  2 - 2 +8 -2 B D+ F +10 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 48 @Baylor L 81 - 94 8% -10  2 - 3 +1 +9 A A+ F -8 F+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 230 @Rice W 90 - 74 46% +3  3 - 3 +15 +10 A+ F+ D+ +4 C- A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 1 52 @Cincinnati L 58 - 76 8% -8  3 - 4 -5 -3 C+ B- F -1 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88 - 64 95% +9  4 - 4 +3 +3 C- D- F -1 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 315 Florida A&M W 78 - 54 83% +14  5 - 4 +12 -7 D- A+ F +16 A+ C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 157 @Texas Arlington W 69 - 63 31% +6  6 - 4 1 - 0 +9 +6 B- B- A+ +4 C- C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 108 Utah Valley L 85 - 91 40% -2  6 - 5 1 - 1 -5 +7 D+ C A+ -11 F+ C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 140 California Baptist W 81 - 76 OT 49% +1  7 - 5 2 - 1 +3 +4 B+ F+ F+ -1 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 252 Abilene Christian L 80 - 84 72% -7  7 - 6 2 - 2 -12 +2 F A+ C+ -14 F F A
 Thu, Jan 15 282 @Southern Utah L 105 - 106 OT 58% -5  7 - 7 2 - 3 -5 +7 B- A- F -12 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 223 @Utah Tech L 71 - 75 45% -6  7 - 8 2 - 4 -5 -2 F D- A -3 F+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 21 157 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 71 31% -1  7 - 9 2 - 5 -4 -1 C D F -3 D C C
 Thu, Jan 29 108 Utah Valley L 77 - 80 40%
 Sat, Jan 31 223 Utah Tech W 80 - 75 67%
 Thu, Feb 5 140 @California Baptist L 70 - 76 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 282 @Southern Utah W 80 - 78 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 252 @Abilene Christian W 75 - 74 50%
 Thu, Feb 19 282 Southern Utah W 83 - 75 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 223 Utah Tech W 80 - 75 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 108 @Utah Valley L 74 - 83 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 140 @California Baptist L 70 - 76 29%
 Thu, Mar 5 157 Texas Arlington W 72 - 71 54%
Totals 12 - 14 7 - 10 -2 -1 C C+ C- -1 D- D A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.7 0.3 7.4 3rd
4th 0.5 5.0 11.5 7.0 0.9 24.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 7.8 13.1 6.5 0.7 29.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.3 10.2 4.1 0.2 0.0 22.0 6th
7th 0.3 1.6 4.8 5.3 1.7 0.0 13.8 7th
Total 0.3 1.6 5.9 12.5 20.2 22.3 19.2 11.4 5.1 1.3 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 69.2% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 21.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 35.9% 35.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 1.3% 28.4% 28.4% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
10-8 5.1% 16.9% 16.9% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 4.2
9-9 11.4% 12.8% 12.8% 14.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 10.0
8-10 19.2% 9.0% 9.0% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.1 17.4
7-11 22.3% 5.0% 5.0% 15.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 21.2
6-12 20.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.1 0.6 19.5
5-13 12.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.2
4-14 5.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.8
3-15 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 14.7 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%