Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#208
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#238
Pace64.5#306
Improvement+0.6#144

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#203
First Shot-1.0#201
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#198
Layup/Dunks-7.2#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#58
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#43
Freethrows-1.3#265
Improvement+1.2#85

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#233
First Shot-1.7#234
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#202
Layups/Dunks+1.0#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#66
Freethrows-2.3#315
Improvement-0.6#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 14.5% 20.6% 7.3%
.500 or above in Conference 26.4% 30.3% 21.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.3% 10.9% 16.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 54.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 84 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 66 @Oregon L 63-67 9%     0 - 1 +7.3 -1.9 +9.0
  Tue, Nov 11 140 Stephen F. Austin L 69-81 44%     0 - 2 -13.6 -1.0 -13.0
  Fri, Nov 14 303 East Texas A&M W 71-64 77%     1 - 2 -3.9 -0.8 -2.6
  Mon, Nov 17 18 @Tennessee L 66-91 3%     1 - 3 -5.8 +4.4 -10.7
  Thu, Nov 20 199 Tarleton St. L 74-90 59%     1 - 4 -21.6 -5.8 -14.8
  Mon, Nov 24 162 Kennesaw St. L 84-89 OT 38%     1 - 5 -5.0 -1.2 -3.1
  Tue, Nov 25 185 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63-78 OT 33%     1 - 6 -13.6 -18.0 +6.2
  Wed, Nov 26 300 Oral Roberts W 81-62 67%     2 - 6 +11.2 +13.6 +0.2
  Wed, Dec 3 240 Texas St. W 77-72 66%     3 - 6 -2.4 +4.6 -6.9
  Sat, Dec 13 153 Arkansas St. W 77-76 48%     4 - 6 -1.6 +3.8 -5.4
  Sat, Dec 20 292 @Pepperdine W 68-67 55%    
  Wed, Dec 31 83 @Tulsa L 67-80 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 75 Memphis L 68-76 23%    
  Wed, Jan 7 100 @Wichita St. L 63-74 15%    
  Sun, Jan 11 194 Charlotte W 69-67 58%    
  Wed, Jan 14 286 @Texas San Antonio W 72-71 53%    
  Wed, Jan 21 158 Temple L 74-75 49%    
  Sun, Jan 25 83 Tulsa L 70-77 25%    
  Wed, Jan 28 280 @East Carolina W 71-70 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 194 @Charlotte L 66-70 37%    
  Wed, Feb 4 145 North Texas L 64-65 46%    
  Sun, Feb 8 119 @UAB L 69-78 20%    
  Wed, Feb 11 117 Florida Atlantic L 73-76 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 280 East Carolina W 73-67 72%    
  Sun, Feb 22 206 @Tulane L 71-74 39%    
  Wed, Feb 25 86 South Florida L 72-79 28%    
  Sun, Mar 1 158 @Temple L 71-77 29%    
  Wed, Mar 4 145 @North Texas L 61-68 26%    
  Sun, Mar 8 286 Texas San Antonio W 75-68 72%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.3 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.5 0.3 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.8 3.9 0.8 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.5 1.5 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.4 3.2 6.7 2.8 0.2 13.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.0 3.7 0.4 14.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.6 3.6 0.5 0.0 13.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 10.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.4 13th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.5 9.0 12.3 14.9 15.0 13.6 10.2 7.4 4.7 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 85.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 43.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 6.4% 6.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 4.2% 4.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.2% 6.6% 6.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.4% 4.8% 4.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3
11-7 4.7% 2.9% 2.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5
10-8 7.4% 1.2% 1.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
9-9 10.2% 0.9% 0.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.1
8-10 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 13.5
7-11 15.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.0
6-12 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
5-13 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.3
4-14 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 2.4% 2.4
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.4 0.0%