SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#38
Expected Predictive Rating+15.5#28
Pace73.0#82
Improvement-1.8#301

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#38
First Shot+5.2#56
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#50
Layup/Dunks+4.2#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#302
Freethrows+1.6#90
Improvement-0.1#195

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#60
First Shot+4.1#53
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#149
Layups/Dunks+3.0#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
Freethrows+1.6#85
Improvement-1.7#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.6% 3.7% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 14.9% 15.1% 6.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.2% 66.6% 48.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.4% 65.8% 47.3%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 8.9
.500 or above 97.9% 98.0% 90.7%
.500 or above in Conference 69.0% 69.3% 55.5%
Conference Champion 2.2% 2.2% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 2.1%
First Four8.9% 8.9% 11.9%
First Round61.5% 61.9% 42.6%
Second Round32.5% 32.7% 22.3%
Sweet Sixteen9.2% 9.3% 6.0%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.0% 1.3%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 27 - 311 - 11
Quad 34 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 199 Tarleton St. W 96-76 94%     1 - 0 +14.4 +17.2 -3.5
  Thu, Nov 6 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-58 95%     2 - 0 +4.7 -2.8 +7.7
  Tue, Nov 11 99 Murray St. W 102-91 83%     3 - 0 +12.9 +13.4 -2.1
  Sat, Nov 15 54 Butler W 87-85 69%     4 - 0 +9.0 +10.1 -1.3
  Tue, Nov 18 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106-60 99%     5 - 0 +30.3 +13.0 +11.4
  Fri, Nov 21 153 Arkansas St. W 100-69 91%     6 - 0 +28.4 +13.0 +11.5
  Mon, Nov 24 255 Radford W 89-72 96%     7 - 0 +8.8 +2.5 +4.6
  Fri, Nov 28 80 @Mississippi St. W 87-81 OT 57%     8 - 0 +16.4 +8.3 +7.3
  Wed, Dec 3 11 @Vanderbilt L 69-88 19%     8 - 1 +2.2 +6.2 -4.6
  Sun, Dec 7 45 Texas A&M W 93-80 OT 53%     9 - 1 +24.3 +8.6 +13.5
  Sat, Dec 13 34 LSU L 77-89 47%     9 - 2 +0.8 +16.4 -16.6
  Sun, Dec 21 283 Central Arkansas W 87-65 98%    
  Sun, Dec 28 269 Cal St. Fullerton W 95-74 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 23 North Carolina L 78-79 49%    
  Wed, Jan 7 35 @Clemson L 71-75 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 2 @Duke L 69-83 11%    
  Wed, Jan 14 63 Virginia Tech W 82-76 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 26 Virginia W 79-78 50%    
  Tue, Jan 20 42 @Wake Forest L 78-81 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 104 Florida St. W 89-78 84%    
  Sat, Jan 31 10 @Louisville L 78-88 19%    
  Tue, Feb 3 29 North Carolina St. W 82-81 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 107 @Pittsburgh W 77-72 68%    
  Tue, Feb 10 55 Notre Dame W 76-71 69%    
  Sat, Feb 14 68 @Syracuse W 77-76 54%    
  Tue, Feb 17 10 Louisville L 81-85 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 148 Boston College W 80-66 90%    
  Wed, Feb 25 81 @California W 78-76 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 92 @Stanford W 81-78 62%    
  Wed, Mar 4 33 Miami (FL) W 80-78 56%    
  Sat, Mar 7 104 @Florida St. W 86-81 68%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 3.4 1.1 0.1 6.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.1 1.9 0.2 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.0 3.5 0.4 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 5.0 1.2 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.3 2.7 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.4 4.0 4.3 0.6 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 5.5 1.5 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.1 10th
11th 0.2 2.4 3.8 0.6 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.4 0.1 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.8 0.2 4.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.8 5.3 8.7 12.3 14.6 15.0 14.0 11.1 7.7 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 87.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 75.8% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 45.9% 0.8    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 14.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.8% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.1% 99.9% 8.9% 91.0% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 7.7% 99.7% 6.3% 93.3% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 11.1% 98.1% 3.9% 94.3% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.2 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.1%
11-7 14.0% 93.7% 2.6% 91.1% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.9 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.9 93.5%
10-8 15.0% 83.7% 1.5% 82.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.9 3.9 1.3 0.0 2.4 83.5%
9-9 14.6% 64.4% 0.8% 63.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.9 2.4 0.0 5.2 64.1%
8-10 12.3% 37.9% 0.5% 37.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.4 0.1 7.6 37.6%
7-11 8.7% 13.6% 0.3% 13.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 7.5 13.3%
6-12 5.3% 2.6% 0.1% 2.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 2.4%
5-13 2.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.2%
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 66.2% 2.4% 63.8% 8.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.5 6.8 9.1 10.9 11.8 11.9 7.4 0.2 33.8 65.4%