California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#126
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#76
Pace65.1#297
Improvement-2.1#315

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#130
First Shot+1.5#133
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#191
Layup/Dunks+5.8#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#309
Freethrows+1.7#88
Improvement+0.6#122

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#135
First Shot+1.0#132
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#196
Layups/Dunks-0.5#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#113
Freethrows-0.3#198
Improvement-2.8#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 23.6% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 98.5% 99.3% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 90.7% 86.5%
Conference Champion 22.6% 23.7% 18.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 1.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.5% 23.6% 18.6%
Second Round2.0% 2.1% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 35 - 37 - 8
Quad 416 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 262 South Carolina Upstate W 87-75 84%     1 - 0 +3.5 +10.5 -7.1
  Fri, Nov 7 122 @UC Irvine W 69-61 36%     2 - 0 +13.9 +3.2 +10.6
  Fri, Nov 14 354 Western Illinois W 69-59 95%     3 - 0 -6.7 -3.6 -1.9
  Tue, Nov 18 268 UC Riverside W 80-57 85%     4 - 0 +14.3 -4.4 +16.9
  Fri, Nov 21 284 Grambling St. W 72-59 87%     5 - 0 +3.3 +2.8 +1.6
  Tue, Nov 25 248 San Diego W 76-61 75%     6 - 0 +10.1 -1.2 +11.1
  Sat, Nov 29 159 @Oregon St. W 75-69 47%     7 - 0 +9.2 +6.9 +2.5
  Mon, Dec 1 62 @Colorado L 70-78 18%     7 - 1 +3.8 +2.2 +1.4
  Wed, Dec 3 9 BYU L 44-66 7%     7 - 2 -2.7 +1.1 -14.6
  Sat, Dec 6 120 @Utah L 85-91 36%     7 - 3 +0.1 +12.3 -12.2
  Fri, Dec 12 241 @Eastern Washington W 88-83 64%     8 - 3 +3.5 +10.8 -7.3
  Tue, Dec 16 203 Southern W 79-71 78%    
  Sat, Dec 20 279 Sacramento St. W 80-68 86%    
  Mon, Dec 29 84 @Utah Valley L 66-74 24%    
  Thu, Jan 1 176 @Texas Arlington W 68-67 52%    
  Sat, Jan 3 199 @Tarleton St. W 73-71 57%    
  Thu, Jan 8 264 Utah Tech W 75-64 84%    
  Sat, Jan 10 316 Southern Utah W 80-66 91%    
  Thu, Jan 15 219 @Abilene Christian W 68-65 60%    
  Wed, Jan 21 264 Utah Tech W 75-64 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 84 Utah Valley L 69-71 44%    
  Sat, Jan 31 176 @Texas Arlington W 68-67 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 199 Tarleton St. W 76-68 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 219 Abilene Christian W 71-62 78%    
  Thu, Feb 12 316 @Southern Utah W 77-69 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 264 @Utah Tech W 72-67 67%    
  Thu, Feb 19 84 @Utah Valley L 66-74 25%    
  Thu, Feb 26 176 Texas Arlington W 71-65 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 199 Tarleton St. W 76-68 75%    
  Thu, Mar 5 219 Abilene Christian W 71-62 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 316 @Southern Utah W 77-69 78%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.8 6.0 6.2 3.7 1.3 0.2 22.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 7.3 11.7 10.4 5.8 1.7 0.2 39.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.8 6.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 20.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 5.1 8.2 11.8 14.1 15.9 14.7 11.8 7.8 3.8 1.3 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3
16-2 95.9% 3.7    3.3 0.3
15-3 78.9% 6.2    4.7 1.5 0.0
14-4 50.8% 6.0    3.7 2.2 0.1
13-5 25.7% 3.8    1.7 1.8 0.3
12-6 7.8% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.6% 22.6 15.3 6.5 0.8 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 54.0% 54.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.3% 55.8% 55.8% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.8% 46.2% 46.2% 12.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1
15-3 7.8% 38.5% 38.5% 12.4 0.1 1.7 1.1 0.1 4.8
14-4 11.8% 33.8% 33.8% 12.7 0.0 1.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.8
13-5 14.7% 28.1% 28.1% 12.9 0.0 1.0 2.3 0.8 0.0 10.6
12-6 15.9% 22.2% 22.2% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.1 0.1 12.4
11-7 14.1% 17.0% 17.0% 13.5 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 11.7
10-8 11.8% 12.7% 12.7% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.3
9-9 8.2% 9.2% 9.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.5
8-10 5.1% 6.8% 6.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.8
7-11 2.8% 5.6% 5.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
6-12 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.6 9.3 4.8 1.0 0.1 77.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.6 3.7 11.1 11.1 66.7 7.4