California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.3 #140
Expected Predictive Rating +4.8 #94
Pace 63.5 #317
Improvement -0.9 #227

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #188 D+ C+ C C B-
Defense #109 B- B D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #14 1.02 #326 +1.6 #117
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #231 0.73 #218 -1.3 #241
Three Pointers 35% #302 0.98 #232 -3.5 #302
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #276 -3.2 #275
Freethrows 0.31 #178 72% #193 0.22 #177
Second Chance 37.6% #17 0.94 #317 0.35 #106
Turnovers 17.0% #216
Total Offense -0.8 #188

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.06 #65 +0.4 #153
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #130 0.78 #214 -0.7 #236
Three Pointers 37% #290 0.98 #131 +2.8 #73
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #97 +2.5 #98
Freethrows 0.32 #245 74% #255 0.24 #262
Second Chance 25.9% #36 0.97 #81 0.25 #34
Turnovers 14.6% #290
Total Defense +2.1 #109

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #61 0.1% #168
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.0% #311 -5.0% #80
Possession Length 18.5 #288 17.5 #212
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #306 0.17 #179
Improvement -1.6 #263 +0.7 #145

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 28.8% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 98.8% 93.0%
Conference Champion 33.7% 50.5% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.0% 28.8% 20.4%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 46 - 9
Quad 416 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 307 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 75 88% +8  1 - 0 +0 +9 A- D A -9 D+ C B+
 Fri, Nov 7 120 @UC Irvine W 69 - 61 33% +3  2 - 0 +14 +2 C C+ F +11 A- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 360 Western Illinois W 69 - 59 95% +6  3 - 0 -8 -2 F D- A -5 D A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 18 292 UC Riverside W 80 - 57 86% +15  4 - 0 +13 -4 F C D+ +14 A- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 288 Grambling St. W 72 - 59 86% +13  5 - 0 +3 +2 A D F +2 C A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 208 San Diego W 76 - 61 66% +2  6 - 0 +12 +0 D A+ F +12 B A+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 182 @Oregon St. W 75 - 69 50% +2  7 - 0 +7 +5 B- F+ A +2 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 80 @Colorado L 70 - 78 20% +2  7 - 1 +2 +2 D- C- C -0 B C C
 Wed, Dec 3 14 BYU L 44 - 66 6% -18  7 - 2 -3 +1 D- C+ A+ -15 D+ F D-
 Sat, Dec 6 104 @Utah L 85 - 91 27% -4  7 - 3 +2 +12 D A+ D+ -10 B- D- D+
 Fri, Dec 12 241 @Eastern Washington W 88 - 83 60% +5  8 - 3 +4 +12 B- A F+ -9 C- D D
 Tue, Dec 16 260 Southern W 75 - 67 82% +4  9 - 3 -0 +1 D- D- B+ -1 B- C B
 Sat, Dec 20 294 Sacramento St. W 74 - 67 86% +2  10 - 3 -4 -2 F A+ D- -1 B F C
 Mon, Dec 29 108 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 30% -0  10 - 4 0 - 1 -0 -3 A+ F F +3 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 157 @Texas Arlington L 51 - 63 43% -4  10 - 5 0 - 2 -9 -12 D+ D- F +2 A B- F+
 Sat, Jan 3 187 @Tarleton St. L 76 - 81 OT 51% -1  10 - 6 0 - 3 -4 -1 C A+ F -3 D A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 223 Utah Tech W 84 - 72 78% +7  11 - 6 1 - 3 +5 +18 D A+ A -11 D A D+
 Sat, Jan 10 282 Southern Utah W 58 - 55 85% +6  12 - 6 2 - 3 -7 -10 F B+ A +4 A+ F B
 Thu, Jan 15 252 @Abilene Christian W 74 - 58 63% +13  13 - 6 3 - 3 +14 +9 D+ C A- +6 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 223 Utah Tech W 73 - 64 78% +5  14 - 6 4 - 3 +2 +6 D- A+ A -3 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 108 Utah Valley W 78 - 71 OT 52% +0  15 - 6 5 - 3 +8 +1 B- D+ D +7 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 157 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 66 43%
 Thu, Feb 5 187 Tarleton St. W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 252 Abilene Christian W 71 - 62 81%
 Thu, Feb 12 282 @Southern Utah W 74 - 69 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 223 @Utah Tech W 71 - 69 58%
 Thu, Feb 19 108 @Utah Valley L 67 - 73 31%
 Thu, Feb 26 157 Texas Arlington W 67 - 63 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 187 Tarleton St. W 76 - 70 71%
 Thu, Mar 5 252 Abilene Christian W 71 - 62 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 282 @Southern Utah W 74 - 69 68%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 7 +1 -1 D+ C+ C +2 B- B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.6 9.1 13.1 7.2 1.5 33.7 1st
2nd 0.5 4.6 12.3 12.3 4.1 0.2 34.1 2nd
3rd 0.7 4.9 10.3 7.2 1.3 0.0 24.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 8.4 16.1 22.1 22.7 17.2 7.4 1.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.5    1.5
14-4 96.8% 7.2    6.1 1.1
13-5 76.1% 13.1    7.9 5.0 0.3
12-6 39.9% 9.1    3.3 4.4 1.4 0.0
11-7 11.7% 2.6    0.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.7% 33.7 19.0 11.7 2.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.5% 41.3% 41.3% 12.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.9
14-4 7.4% 39.9% 39.9% 12.7 0.0 1.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.5
13-5 17.2% 33.2% 33.2% 13.1 1.0 3.4 1.2 0.1 11.5
12-6 22.7% 28.0% 28.0% 13.3 0.6 3.5 2.2 0.2 16.4
11-7 22.1% 21.7% 21.7% 13.5 0.2 2.2 2.1 0.2 17.4
10-8 16.1% 15.6% 15.6% 13.8 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.5 13.6
9-9 8.4% 8.9% 8.9% 14.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 7.7
8-10 3.3% 8.0% 8.0% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.1
7-11 1.0% 5.2% 5.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 13.3 76.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.2 9.6 65.6 24.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%