Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.0 #48
Expected Predictive Rating +9.2 #67
Pace 70.1 #147
Improvement -3.9 #326

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #34 B A- B+ B- F+
Defense #93 C+ B- C- B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.34 #22 -2.0 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #29 0.87 #45 +5.4 #9
Three Pointers 40% #208 1.10 #73 +0.9 #143
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #64 +4.3 #63
Freethrows 0.33 #100 72% #179 0.24 #110
Second Chance 40.3% #8 1.10 #100 0.44 #17
Turnovers 13.7% #33
Total Offense +8.1 #34

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 23% #363 1.18 #209 +9.0 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% #1 0.82 #285 -8.3 #365
Three Pointers 38% #258 1.00 #157 +1.7 #115
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #106 +2.4 #103
Freethrows 0.24 #32 74% #277 0.18 #44
Second Chance 28.4% #101 0.99 #100 0.28 #88
Turnovers 15.5% #233
Total Defense +2.9 #93

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.6% #349 -6.9% #1
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.4% #20 2.4% #226
Possession Length 16.4 #89 17.8 #251
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #29 0.17 #183
Improvement -4.4 #354 +0.5 #159

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 19.2% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.7% 19.0% 6.2%
Average Seed 10.1 9.9 10.5
.500 or above 45.5% 62.4% 32.9%
.500 or above in Conference 2.0% 4.2% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.4% 5.6% 19.2%
First Four6.2% 9.2% 4.0%
First Round8.8% 14.8% 4.4%
Second Round3.6% 6.3% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 13
Quad 24 - 38 - 16
Quad 32 - 09 - 16
Quad 46 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96 - 81 92% +6  1 - 0 +10 +13 A+ C- B -5 D- A- D+
 Sun, Nov 9 46 Washington W 78 - 69 60% +4  2 - 0 +17 +7 A- D+ A- +10 B+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 187 Tarleton St. W 94 - 81 92% +10  3 - 0 +8 +15 B A+ C+ -7 F F+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 55 Creighton W 81 - 74 54% +5  4 - 0 +17 +14 D- A+ C+ +4 C B A+
 Tue, Nov 25 18 St. John's L 81 - 96 27% -12  4 - 1 +2 +14 C B+ A -11 F+ D C+
 Wed, Nov 26 41 San Diego St. W 91 - 81 47% +4  5 - 1 +22 +25 A+ B- A+ -3 C A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 294 Sacramento St. W 110 - 88 97% +7  6 - 1 +11 +23 A+ A+ C -13 C+ F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 100 @Memphis L 71 - 78 61% -2  6 - 2 +1 +5 D B- B- -4 A- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 298 Norfolk St. W 97 - 67 97% +16  7 - 2 +19 +13 B B C+ +4 A- B+ D
 Fri, Dec 19 350 Alcorn St. W 113 - 56 98% +29  8 - 2 +42 +22 A+ C C- +14 A+ B- D
 Sun, Dec 21 260 Southern W 111 - 67 95% +15  9 - 2 +36 +36 A+ A- A+ -0 A- F F+
 Sat, Jan 3 45 @TCU L 63 - 69 37% -7  9 - 3 0 - 1 +9 +5 D- A A- +3 A B C+
 Wed, Jan 7 9 Iowa St. L 60 - 70 27% -3  9 - 4 0 - 2 +7 -3 F A+ B+ +10 A+ B+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 4 Houston L 55 - 77 24% -11  9 - 5 0 - 3 -4 -2 C B- D+ -5 B+ C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 13 63 @Oklahoma St. W 94 - 79 47% +13  10 - 5 1 - 3 +27 +28 A+ A+ C -1 C+ C- C+
 Fri, Jan 16 17 @Kansas L 62 - 80 18% -11  10 - 6 1 - 4 +3 +4 C+ B- D -2 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 15 Texas Tech L 73 - 92 34% -16  10 - 7 1 - 5 -4 +8 B- A+ C+ -13 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 45 TCU L 90 - 97 60% -4  10 - 8 1 - 6 +2 +13 A+ A D+ -10 C A D+
 Wed, Jan 28 52 @Cincinnati L 57 - 67 41% -9  10 - 9 1 - 7 +3 -2 D+ C A+ +6 B+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 57 @West Virginia L 70 - 72 43%
 Wed, Feb 4 80 Colorado W 84 - 77 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 9 @Iowa St. L 72 - 84 13%
 Tue, Feb 10 14 BYU L 78 - 83 33%
 Sat, Feb 14 19 Louisville L 79 - 85 27%
 Tue, Feb 17 87 @Kansas St. W 83 - 82 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 77 Arizona St. W 85 - 78 73%
 Tue, Feb 24 2 Arizona L 76 - 86 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 49 @Central Florida L 80 - 83 40%
 Wed, Mar 4 4 @Houston L 67 - 80 11%
 Sat, Mar 7 104 Utah W 86 - 77 81%
Totals 15 - 15 5 - 13 +11 +8 B A- B+ +3 C+ B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.6 8th
9th 0.2 2.5 2.8 0.4 5.9 9th
10th 0.1 3.6 7.2 1.3 0.1 12.2 10th
11th 0.0 2.1 9.9 4.2 0.2 16.4 11th
12th 0.6 8.8 8.7 0.7 0.0 18.8 12th
13th 0.2 4.1 10.2 1.8 0.0 16.3 13th
14th 0.0 1.4 8.2 3.5 0.1 13.2 14th
15th 0.4 3.6 4.3 0.3 8.5 15th
16th 0.2 1.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 5.0 16th
Total 0.2 2.0 7.9 17.6 25.1 24.3 14.9 6.0 1.7 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.3% 100.0% 100.0% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 1.7% 92.8% 0.6% 92.3% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 92.8%
8-10 6.0% 67.9% 0.5% 67.4% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.9 67.7%
7-11 14.9% 27.8% 0.3% 27.5% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.8 0.2 10.8 27.6%
6-12 24.3% 6.4% 0.2% 6.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.1 22.8 6.3%
5-13 25.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 24.9 0.6%
4-14 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 17.6
3-15 7.9% 7.9
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 11.8% 0.2% 11.7% 10.1 88.2 11.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%