Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#264
Expected Predictive Rating-6.9#266
Pace68.0#223
Improvement+1.9#70

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#270
First Shot-1.1#206
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#338
Layup/Dunks+0.8#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#166
Freethrows-2.2#306
Improvement+1.8#59

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#230
First Shot-0.1#180
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#292
Layups/Dunks-6.1#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#46
Freethrows+1.4#99
Improvement+0.1#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.5% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 6.6% 12.3% 4.0%
.500 or above in Conference 22.5% 28.1% 20.0%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 24.6% 19.7% 26.9%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round1.6% 2.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 33 - 73 - 15
Quad 47 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 278 @South Dakota W 81-79 OT 41%     1 - 0 -1.2 -7.8 +6.3
  Fri, Nov 7 3 @Arizona L 67-93 1%     1 - 1 -0.5 +5.5 -5.6
  Sun, Nov 9 61 @Arizona St. L 66-81 6%     1 - 2 -2.9 -3.0 +0.4
  Wed, Nov 12 320 Manhattan L 75-79 65%     1 - 3 -13.4 +0.4 -14.2
  Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81-75 2OT 94%     2 - 3 -16.7 -5.4 -11.6
  Sat, Nov 15 110 @Hawaii L 62-68 13%     2 - 4 +0.5 -4.0 +4.5
  Tue, Nov 25 177 Portland St. L 63-68 45%     2 - 5 -9.2 -9.9 +0.7
  Sat, Nov 29 268 UC Riverside W 77-69 62%     3 - 5 -0.7 +7.1 -6.9
  Wed, Dec 3 74 @Santa Clara L 80-90 7%     3 - 6 +0.8 +4.5 -2.8
  Sat, Dec 20 212 @Weber St. L 71-76 31%    
  Mon, Dec 22 59 @Creighton L 62-80 5%    
  Mon, Dec 29 316 Southern Utah W 77-70 73%    
  Thu, Jan 1 219 @Abilene Christian L 65-70 32%    
  Thu, Jan 8 126 @California Baptist L 64-75 16%    
  Sat, Jan 10 84 @Utah Valley L 63-78 8%    
  Thu, Jan 15 176 Texas Arlington L 68-69 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 199 Tarleton St. W 73-72 50%    
  Wed, Jan 21 126 @California Baptist L 64-75 16%    
  Sat, Jan 24 316 Southern Utah W 77-70 72%    
  Thu, Jan 29 219 @Abilene Christian L 65-70 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 199 @Tarleton St. L 69-75 29%    
  Thu, Feb 5 176 Texas Arlington L 68-69 45%    
  Thu, Feb 12 84 Utah Valley L 66-75 20%    
  Sat, Feb 14 126 California Baptist L 67-72 33%    
  Thu, Feb 19 176 @Texas Arlington L 65-72 26%    
  Sat, Feb 21 199 @Tarleton St. L 69-75 30%    
  Thu, Feb 26 219 Abilene Christian W 68-67 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 316 @Southern Utah W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Mar 7 84 Utah Valley L 66-75 20%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.0 4.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 16.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.7 8.3 4.5 0.9 0.0 23.1 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 6.2 9.2 7.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 28.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 3.4 4.8 4.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 16.6 7th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.6 7.0 10.8 13.8 14.9 14.0 11.9 9.0 6.3 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 91.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 59.1% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 37.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 10.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 13.0% 13.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 24.3% 24.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.0% 18.9% 18.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
12-6 2.1% 13.1% 13.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.8
11-7 3.7% 6.5% 6.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.5
10-8 6.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.6 0.1 0.2 6.0
9-9 9.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.7
8-10 11.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.7
7-11 14.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.9
6-12 14.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.8
5-13 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.7
4-14 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.8
3-15 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
2-16 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%