Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.4 #52
Expected Predictive Rating +6.6 #83
Pace 70.8 #129
Improvement +3.7 #37

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #170 C C B- D+ C
Defense #7 B+ B B+ B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #230 1.25 #85 +0.6 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #214 0.80 #110 -0.3 #192
Three Pointers 45% #104 0.94 #280 +0.2 #166
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #159 +0.4 #159
Freethrows 0.28 #252 67% #333 0.19 #294
Second Chance 30.8% #170 1.00 #234 0.31 #198
Turnovers 15.2% #103
Total Offense -0.3 #170

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #276 0.94 #8 +5.7 #28
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #99 0.76 #170 -0.8 #240
Three Pointers 42% #148 0.94 #77 +1.1 #139
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #31 +6.1 #31
Freethrows 0.26 #50 67% #20 0.17 #30
Second Chance 23.4% #9 1.09 #255 0.26 #40
Turnovers 20.0% #24
Total Defense +10.6 #7

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #173 -1.0% #89
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.5% #167 -11.0% #27
Possession Length 16.1 #63 18.4 #322
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #39 0.08 #5
Improvement +2.9 #46 +0.8 #140

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 22.2% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.0% 21.6% 5.6%
Average Seed 10.2 9.9 10.3
.500 or above 46.5% 75.2% 43.8%
.500 or above in Conference 20.9% 49.1% 18.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four4.0% 10.3% 3.4%
First Round5.2% 16.4% 4.2%
Second Round2.0% 6.1% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.2% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 8.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 13
Quad 24 - 36 - 15
Quad 33 - 010 - 16
Quad 46 - 116 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 274 Western Carolina W 94 - 63 96% +20  1 - 0 +22 +3 A C F +15 B+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 270 Georgia St. W 74 - 64 95% +6  2 - 0 +1 -6 D C- F +6 C C- A
 Tue, Nov 11 85 Dayton W 74 - 62 74% +9  3 - 0 +16 -5 A F F +19 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 286 Mount St. Mary's W 72 - 55 96% +0  4 - 0 +7 -7 D F+ C +13 B+ B A
 Fri, Nov 21 19 Louisville L 64 - 74 25% -1  4 - 1 +7 -3 B- F+ C +11 A+ A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 339 NJIT W 104 - 80 98% +16  5 - 1 +10 +8 B+ C C+ -3 C F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 242 Eastern Michigan L 56 - 64 94% -9  5 - 2 -15 -15 F D D+ -1 B F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 187 Tarleton St. W 76 - 58 92% +8  6 - 2 +13 +0 B B+ F +13 B- B- A+
 Fri, Dec 5 83 @Xavier L 74 - 79 52% -4  6 - 3 +5 +2 F A A+ +3 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 29 Georgia L 65 - 84 33% -1  6 - 4 -4 -8 D- D+ C +5 A- D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 318 Alabama St. W 88 - 51 97% +21  7 - 4 +25 +9 C+ D- A+ +16 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 32 Clemson L 65 - 68 35% -13  7 - 5 +11 +4 C A- C +7 C A B+
 Mon, Dec 29 169 Lipscomb W 89 - 62 90% +16  8 - 5 +23 +13 B- A+ A+ +10 A- C- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 4 Houston L 60 - 67 22% +1  8 - 6 0 - 1 +11 +2 B+ D+ C +9 A C+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 57 @West Virginia L 60 - 62 40% -3  8 - 7 0 - 2 +11 +1 C C A +9 D- A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 49 @Central Florida L 72 - 73 37% -1  8 - 8 0 - 3 +13 +8 D+ A+ A+ +5 D B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 80 Colorado W 77 - 68 73% +13  9 - 8 1 - 3 +13 +1 B- F B +12 B+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 9 Iowa St. W 79 - 70 25% +7  10 - 8 2 - 3 +26 +20 A B+ A+ +7 A+ B- A-
 Wed, Jan 21 2 @Arizona L 51 - 77 7% -7  10 - 9 2 - 4 +1 -4 F+ C+ F+ +4 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 24 77 @Arizona St. L 68 - 82 49% -4  10 - 10 2 - 5 -3 -1 C- D D -2 C- B- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 48 Baylor W 67 - 57 59% +9  11 - 10 3 - 5 +18 -3 D+ C- A- +21 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 4 @Houston L 59 - 73 9%
 Thu, Feb 5 57 West Virginia W 65 - 62 63%
 Sun, Feb 8 49 Central Florida W 75 - 72 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 87 @Kansas St. W 75 - 74 53%
 Sun, Feb 15 104 Utah W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 17 @Kansas L 63 - 74 16%
 Tue, Feb 24 15 @Texas Tech L 66 - 77 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 63 Oklahoma St. W 79 - 74 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 14 BYU L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Mar 7 45 @TCU L 67 - 71 35%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 11 +10 +0 C C B- +11 B+ B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.9 2.5 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.7 5.9 6.5 0.9 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.5 6.7 11.0 2.6 0.1 20.8 9th
10th 0.1 4.7 13.7 4.8 0.2 23.5 10th
11th 1.4 7.9 4.7 0.2 14.3 11th
12th 0.1 3.6 4.3 0.5 0.0 8.5 12th
13th 0.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 4.6 13th
14th 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.0 1.9 14th
15th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 0.2 16th
Total 0.3 2.4 9.3 18.1 26.3 22.7 13.6 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 94.0% 2.0% 92.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.9%
11-7 1.5% 80.5% 2.4% 78.2% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 80.1%
10-8 5.5% 50.5% 1.7% 48.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 0.0 2.7 49.7%
9-9 13.6% 17.1% 0.1% 17.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 0.1 11.3 17.1%
8-10 22.7% 2.6% 0.3% 2.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 22.1 2.3%
7-11 26.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 26.2 0.1%
6-12 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 18.1
5-13 9.3% 9.3
4-14 2.4% 2.4
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.2% 0.3% 7.0% 10.2 92.8 7.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%