Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 #252
Expected Predictive Rating -2.4 #211
Pace 66.5 #247
Improvement -0.2 #194

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #292 D+ C- D- C+ C-
Defense #188 D- C B+ F D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #105 1.03 #318 -1.0 #218
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #63 0.76 #175 +2.4 #64
Three Pointers 32% #340 1.00 #210 -4.9 #327
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #285 -3.5 #284
Freethrows 0.33 #97 71% #217 0.24 #120
Second Chance 33.6% #96 0.90 #339 0.30 #210
Turnovers 19.8% #345
Total Offense -4.4 #292

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #15 1.23 #274 -6.1 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #291 0.74 #138 +1.6 #75
Three Pointers 37% #288 1.20 #360 -1.4 #249
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #340 -5.9 #340
Freethrows 0.43 #364 74% #254 0.31 #364
Second Chance 28.3% #98 1.11 #277 0.31 #167
Turnovers 19.9% #25
Total Defense -0.7 #188

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #265 2.0% #343
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.8% #278 9.3% #332
Possession Length 18.6 #299 16.9 #104
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #191 0.23 #343
Improvement +0.9 #135 -1.1 #254

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.5% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 11.5% 17.5% 4.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.6% 15.0% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 41.1% 29.6% 55.2%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round1.8% 2.3% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 12
Quad 48 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 243 Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 71 59% +4  1 - 0 -6 -3 C C F -3 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 13% -1  1 - 1 -3 +1 D D C- -5 D- B D+
 Tue, Nov 18 271 @Texas St. L 49 - 63 42% -11  1 - 2 -17 -18 F B F -1 D- B+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 341 Texas San Antonio W 61 - 50 73% +7  2 - 2 -1 -9 F B F +10 B C A
 Tue, Nov 25 133 William & Mary L 58 - 92 26% -12  2 - 3 -32 -17 D- F+ F -13 F C- B-
 Tue, Dec 2 281 @Pepperdine W 71 - 63 46% +8  3 - 3 +4 +8 C+ C- B+ -3 D+ A- C
 Sat, Dec 6 154 New Mexico St. W 77 - 69 41% +5  4 - 3 +5 +9 A+ B F -3 C- B A
 Tue, Dec 16 2 @Arizona L 62 - 96 1% -21  4 - 4 -7 -1 C C+ D- -4 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 14 @BYU L 67 - 85 2% -5  4 - 5 +4 +2 C- A- F +2 D- F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 306 @Texas Southern W 75 - 68 51% -2  5 - 5 +2 -0 D D+ F +2 D- C+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 223 Utah Tech L 64 - 79 56% -14  5 - 6 0 - 1 -22 -9 C D- F -14 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 108 Utah Valley W 85 - 68 28% +5  6 - 6 1 - 1 +18 +14 A+ D+ A+ +4 D+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 187 @Tarleton St. W 84 - 80 28% +7  7 - 6 2 - 1 +5 +9 C A+ F+ -4 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 157 @Texas Arlington L 72 - 82 22% -6  7 - 7 2 - 2 -7 +9 A- B- C- -16 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 140 California Baptist L 58 - 74 37% -13  7 - 8 2 - 3 -18 -9 D+ F B+ -11 D- B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 282 @Southern Utah L 52 - 74 46% -11  7 - 9 2 - 4 -26 -23 F F F -3 F+ C- A-
 Thu, Jan 29 223 Utah Tech W 72 - 70 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 282 Southern Utah W 75 - 70 68%
 Thu, Feb 5 108 @Utah Valley L 66 - 78 13%
 Sat, Feb 7 140 @California Baptist L 62 - 71 19%
 Thu, Feb 12 157 Texas Arlington L 65 - 67 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 187 Tarleton St. L 74 - 75 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 282 Southern Utah W 75 - 70 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 223 @Utah Tech L 69 - 73 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 108 @Utah Valley L 66 - 78 13%
 Thu, Mar 5 140 @California Baptist L 62 - 71 19%
 Sat, Mar 7 157 Texas Arlington L 65 - 67 42%
Totals 11 - 16 6 - 11 -5 -4 D+ C- D- -1 D- C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.5 0.1 4.7 3rd
4th 0.4 4.4 7.5 3.5 0.3 16.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 7.3 11.4 4.5 0.3 0.0 24.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 9.1 12.2 4.1 0.3 27.4 6th
7th 0.9 4.2 8.9 9.0 2.8 0.2 25.9 7th
Total 0.9 4.2 10.7 19.0 22.7 20.1 12.9 6.3 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 88.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 29.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.6% 18.5% 18.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.6% 8.4% 8.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
9-9 6.3% 5.1% 5.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 6.0
8-10 12.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 12.5
7-11 20.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.1 0.4 19.6
6-12 22.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 22.5
5-13 19.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 18.8
4-14 10.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.6
3-15 4.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.3 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%