Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#84
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#81
Pace70.9#145
Improvement+3.0#25

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#135
First Shot-0.1#173
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#99
Layup/Dunks+7.8#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#291
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement-2.1#328

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#38
First Shot+6.3#30
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#229
Layups/Dunks+0.5#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#22
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement+5.2#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.5% 55.1% 49.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.1 12.6
.500 or above 99.8% 99.8% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.2% 98.2%
Conference Champion 74.4% 75.4% 66.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round54.5% 55.1% 49.1%
Second Round10.3% 10.8% 6.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.2% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 310 - 311 - 6
Quad 412 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 47 @Boise St. L 77-101 24%     0 - 1 -9.9 +8.0 -16.4
  Sat, Nov 15 183 @Fresno St. L 74-75 70%     0 - 2 +0.4 +1.5 -1.0
  Wed, Nov 19 122 UC Irvine W 79-72 75%     1 - 2 +6.9 +11.2 -4.3
  Tue, Nov 25 160 South Dakota St. W 75-52 74%     2 - 2 +23.1 +3.4 +19.7
  Wed, Nov 26 237 Samford W 89-45 85%     3 - 2 +39.9 +8.6 +29.2
  Wed, Dec 3 52 @San Diego St. L 66-77 26%     3 - 3 +2.4 -0.8 +3.3
  Sat, Dec 6 124 @Bowling Green W 82-71 55%     4 - 3 +16.4 +11.2 +4.9
  Wed, Dec 10 163 Idaho St. W 73-69 82%     5 - 3 +0.9 +0.3 +0.6
  Sat, Dec 13 150 UC Santa Barbara W 68-53 73%     6 - 3 +15.6 -4.7 +20.9
  Wed, Dec 17 212 Weber St. W 80-67 89%    
  Mon, Dec 29 126 California Baptist W 74-66 76%    
  Thu, Jan 1 199 @Tarleton St. W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 219 @Abilene Christian W 71-64 75%    
  Thu, Jan 8 316 Southern Utah W 83-64 96%    
  Sat, Jan 10 264 Utah Tech W 78-63 92%    
  Sat, Jan 17 176 Texas Arlington W 74-63 84%    
  Wed, Jan 21 316 @Southern Utah W 80-67 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 126 @California Baptist W 71-69 56%    
  Thu, Jan 29 199 @Tarleton St. W 76-70 71%    
  Thu, Feb 5 219 Abilene Christian W 74-61 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 176 Texas Arlington W 74-63 84%    
  Thu, Feb 12 264 @Utah Tech W 75-66 80%    
  Thu, Feb 19 126 California Baptist W 74-66 75%    
  Sat, Feb 21 176 @Texas Arlington W 71-66 67%    
  Thu, Feb 26 199 Tarleton St. W 79-67 86%    
  Sat, Feb 28 219 Abilene Christian W 74-61 88%    
  Thu, Mar 5 316 @Southern Utah W 80-67 88%    
  Sat, Mar 7 264 @Utah Tech W 75-66 80%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 6.4 13.0 17.9 17.6 12.5 5.0 74.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.9 5.4 3.3 1.0 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 5.0 7.8 12.0 16.3 19.0 17.7 12.5 5.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.0    5.0
17-1 100.0% 12.5    12.5
16-2 99.7% 17.6    17.2 0.4
15-3 94.6% 17.9    15.9 2.0 0.0
14-4 79.4% 13.0    9.7 3.1 0.1
13-5 53.1% 6.4    3.4 2.6 0.4
12-6 21.7% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 6.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 74.4% 74.4 64.3 9.1 1.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.0% 74.0% 73.1% 0.9% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 3.2%
17-1 12.5% 70.9% 70.8% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.2 4.2 0.3 0.0 3.6 0.4%
16-2 17.7% 63.4% 63.4% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 2.1 7.5 1.6 0.0 6.5 0.1%
15-3 19.0% 59.4% 59.4% 12.3 0.6 7.0 3.4 0.3 7.7
14-4 16.3% 52.3% 52.3% 12.6 0.2 3.9 3.8 0.6 0.0 7.8
13-5 12.0% 44.5% 44.5% 12.9 0.0 1.6 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.7
12-6 7.8% 38.7% 38.7% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.0 4.8
11-7 5.0% 32.4% 32.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 3.4
10-8 2.5% 23.1% 23.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.9
9-9 1.3% 17.8% 17.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
8-10 0.5% 18.0% 18.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.2% 14.1% 14.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 54.5% 54.4% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 8.8 25.2 14.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 45.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 9.8 0.8 2.0 5.1 5.4 5.3 12.8 17.5 44.4 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 3.2% 11.0 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 4.0% 10.8 0.8 3.2