Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#271
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#213
Pace62.7#337
Improvement+0.4#158

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#273
First Shot-1.4#216
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#332
Layup/Dunks-4.4#320
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#108
Freethrows+2.0#76
Improvement-0.1#190

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#234
First Shot+2.6#90
After Offensive Rebounds-4.5#360
Layups/Dunks-1.1#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#53
Freethrows-0.5#212
Improvement+0.4#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 5.3% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 35.9% 51.2% 26.6%
.500 or above in Conference 61.9% 77.2% 52.7%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.9% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 1.0%
First Round3.2% 4.6% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 37.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 11
Quad 413 - 615 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 160 South Dakota St. L 66-75 28%     0 - 1 -8.9 -5.8 -3.1
  Thu, Nov 6 28 @Auburn L 57-95 3%     0 - 2 -20.6 -8.0 -14.0
  Tue, Nov 11 199 @Tarleton St. L 62-76 27%     0 - 3 -13.6 -13.2 +0.4
  Sat, Nov 15 288 @Boston University W 91-79 43%     1 - 3 +8.0 +20.6 -11.5
  Wed, Nov 19 336 Maine W 72-65 78%     2 - 3 -6.8 +6.3 -12.2
  Fri, Nov 21 13 @Florida L 45-80 2%     2 - 4 -14.1 -13.6 -2.9
  Fri, Nov 28 256 @Penn L 65-77 36%     2 - 5 -14.2 -8.3 -6.3
  Sat, Nov 29 114 Hofstra L 58-78 19%     2 - 6 -16.7 -10.4 -7.2
  Sun, Nov 30 239 La Salle W 66-60 44%     3 - 6 +1.7 -0.3 +2.7
  Thu, Dec 4 348 Rider W 68-66 81%     4 - 6 1 - 0 -13.0 -0.8 -12.0
  Sun, Dec 7 294 Fairfield W 74-63 67%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +0.6 +2.8 -1.1
  Wed, Dec 10 261 @Princeton W 59-56 37%     6 - 6 +0.6 -0.6 +1.8
  Sun, Dec 14 186 @Vermont L 59-66 25%     6 - 7 -5.7 -4.2 -2.9
  Mon, Dec 29 257 @Sacred Heart L 70-74 38%    
  Fri, Jan 2 298 Mount St. Mary's W 70-65 66%    
  Sun, Jan 4 320 Manhattan W 76-69 73%    
  Fri, Jan 9 165 @Siena L 61-70 22%    
  Sun, Jan 11 293 @St. Peter's L 63-65 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 169 Quinnipiac L 70-72 43%    
  Mon, Jan 19 156 @Marist L 59-68 21%    
  Thu, Jan 22 171 @Iona L 68-76 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 293 St. Peter's W 66-62 66%    
  Sun, Feb 1 257 Sacred Heart W 73-71 59%    
  Thu, Feb 5 298 @Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 348 @Rider W 65-62 61%    
  Thu, Feb 12 156 Marist L 62-65 39%    
  Sun, Feb 15 169 @Quinnipiac L 67-75 23%    
  Fri, Feb 20 165 Siena L 64-67 41%    
  Sun, Feb 22 171 Iona L 71-73 44%    
  Fri, Feb 27 340 @Canisius W 64-62 59%    
  Sun, Mar 1 353 @Niagara W 67-63 65%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.5 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 5.7 5.1 1.4 0.1 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.9 5.5 1.5 0.1 15.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.2 5.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.1 4.8 1.4 0.1 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.5 1.2 0.1 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.2 7.2 10.6 13.3 14.8 14.4 12.2 9.0 5.9 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 88.9% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 55.2% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 25.7% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 22.9% 22.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 12.9% 12.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.6% 13.1% 13.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
15-5 3.3% 14.3% 14.3% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.8
14-6 5.9% 10.4% 10.4% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 5.3
13-7 9.0% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 8.4
12-8 12.2% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 11.6
11-9 14.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.1 0.4 14.0
10-10 14.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 14.5
9-11 13.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.2
8-12 10.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.5
7-13 7.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.1
6-14 4.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.2
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 96.2 0.0%