Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #206
Expected Predictive Rating +0.3 #154
Pace 62.5 #341
Improvement +6.0 #10

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #245 D+ D- C+ B B
Defense #168 C+ F+ B- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #178 1.03 #322 -2.6 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #328 0.75 #180 -3.2 #328
Three Pointers 49% #36 0.93 #286 +1.9 #120
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #288 -3.9 #292
Freethrows 0.33 #108 77% #28 0.25 #59
Second Chance 23.9% #339 0.96 #301 0.23 #344
Turnovers 15.7% #131
Total Offense -2.7 #245

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.07 #74 -0.4 #190
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #103 0.80 #260 -1.3 #288
Three Pointers 35% #330 0.96 #97 +4.0 #40
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #108 +2.4 #109
Freethrows 0.33 #283 72% #181 0.24 #279
Second Chance 41.7% #365 1.00 #110 0.42 #350
Turnovers 18.2% #74
Total Defense -0.1 #168

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #58 0.1% #170
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.9% #323 -4.7% #88
Possession Length 18.3 #274 18.4 #317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #158 0.12 #40
Improvement +3.3 #34 +2.7 #41

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 14.8% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 97.6% 99.2% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 48.6% 55.2% 29.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round13.7% 14.7% 10.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 34 - 74 - 10
Quad 415 - 420 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 180 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 45% -2  0 - 1 -10 -8 F F C -2 C+ D- B+
 Thu, Nov 6 25 @Auburn L 57 - 95 3% -18  0 - 2 -19 -8 F D- B -13 B F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 187 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 35% -5  0 - 3 -13 -13 F F+ F +1 D+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 283 @Boston University W 91 - 79 55% +10  1 - 3 +8 +21 A+ C+ F -12 D- F D
 Wed, Nov 19 336 Maine W 72 - 65 85% +3  2 - 3 -7 +7 D A- B- -13 C+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 5 @Florida L 45 - 80 1% -24  2 - 4 -11 -13 F D+ C- -1 A F B
 Fri, Nov 28 194 @Penn L 65 - 77 36% -4  2 - 5 -11 -6 F D- A+ -5 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 129 Hofstra L 58 - 78 33% -12  2 - 6 -18 -13 D F C+ -6 C- B- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 202 La Salle W 66 - 60 50% +4  3 - 6 +3 -1 D D B- +5 C D A+
 Thu, Dec 4 352 Rider W 68 - 66 89% +1  4 - 6 1 - 0 -14 -4 C F C -10 D- F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 272 Fairfield W 74 - 63 73% +10  5 - 6 2 - 0 +2 +2 C+ F C+ +1 C- A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 10 212 @Princeton W 59 - 56 40% +2  6 - 6 +3 -0 D F A+ +4 A+ F C
 Sun, Dec 14 198 @Vermont L 59 - 66 37% -7  6 - 7 -7 -3 F+ C F+ -5 A- D- D-
 Mon, Dec 29 277 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 53% +8  7 - 7 3 - 0 +4 +8 C+ D- C -3 C- D C
 Fri, Jan 2 286 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 76% +6  8 - 7 4 - 0 -0 -0 D D+ C- -0 A D+ B+
 Sun, Jan 4 326 Manhattan W 73 - 66 84% +4  9 - 7 5 - 0 -6 -5 C- F B -1 C+ C D
 Fri, Jan 9 173 @Siena W 63 - 59 32% +9  10 - 7 6 - 0 +6 +10 C+ D+ A- -3 B- F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 226 @St. Peter's L 63 - 76 42% -9  10 - 8 6 - 1 -14 +1 F C+ C -16 F F A
 Sat, Jan 17 176 Quinnipiac W 83 - 71 56% +12  11 - 8 7 - 1 +8 +13 A- B C- -5 A- D- D
 Mon, Jan 19 159 @Marist W 68 - 55 29% +6  12 - 8 8 - 1 +16 +8 B+ F C +9 A+ C- B
 Thu, Jan 22 225 @Iona L 60 - 61 42% -1  12 - 9 8 - 2 -2 -2 D+ B- F -0 B C C
 Sat, Jan 24 226 St. Peter's W 67 - 59 65% +11  13 - 9 9 - 2 +1 +1 C- D+ B- +1 A+ F A+
 Sun, Feb 1 277 Sacred Heart W 76 - 69 74%
 Thu, Feb 5 286 @Mount St. Mary's W 68 - 67 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 352 @Rider W 69 - 62 75%
 Thu, Feb 12 159 Marist W 63 - 62 50%
 Sun, Feb 15 176 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 73 34%
 Fri, Feb 20 173 Siena W 67 - 66 55%
 Sun, Feb 22 225 Iona W 72 - 68 65%
 Fri, Feb 27 342 @Canisius W 67 - 61 71%
 Sun, Mar 1 349 @Niagara W 67 - 61 73%
Totals 19 - 12 15 - 5 -3 -3 D+ D- C+ +0 C+ F+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.0 17.4 16.2 8.1 1.7 48.6 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 10.5 7.3 0.8 0.0 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.7 6.0 6.1 0.5 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 5.7 1.0 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.7 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.3 6.9 15.7 22.5 25.1 17.0 8.2 1.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
17-3 99.6% 8.1    7.8 0.3
16-4 95.2% 16.2    12.3 3.7 0.2
15-5 69.1% 17.4    6.0 8.1 2.8 0.4 0.0
14-6 22.2% 5.0    0.5 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 48.6% 48.6 28.3 13.7 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.7% 21.5% 21.5% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
17-3 8.2% 21.6% 21.6% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 6.4
16-4 17.0% 18.7% 18.7% 14.6 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.1 13.9
15-5 25.1% 14.6% 14.6% 14.9 0.0 0.9 2.4 0.4 21.4
14-6 22.5% 12.4% 12.4% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.5 19.7
13-7 15.7% 9.9% 9.9% 15.2 0.1 1.0 0.5 14.2
12-8 6.9% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.2 0.2 6.5
11-9 2.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 2.3
10-10 0.5% 0.5
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 14.8 86.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.3 9.7 51.4 36.1 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%