Santa Clara
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.8 #50
Expected Predictive Rating +11.4 #51
Pace 72.1 #94
Improvement +0.1 #178

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #52 B A- C+ D- C+
Defense #66 B- C A- D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #222 1.30 #50 +1.7 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #252 0.99 #8 +0.6 #149
Three Pointers 46% #78 1.05 #140 +3.3 #75
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #46 +5.6 #47
Freethrows 0.23 #350 73% #167 0.17 #344
Second Chance 37.5% #19 1.16 #45 0.44 #22
Turnovers 15.8% #135
Total Offense +6.4 #52

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #101 1.17 #191 -2.1 #248
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.65 #32 +1.2 #98
Three Pointers 38% #262 0.92 #63 +3.3 #59
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #99 +2.5 #99
Freethrows 0.33 #281 72% #179 0.24 #276
Second Chance 30.3% #171 1.03 #150 0.31 #156
Turnovers 20.6% #17
Total Defense +4.4 #66

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #145 0.6% #218
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.2% #40 -5.3% #77
Possession Length 16.2 #69 17.6 #216
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #33 0.22 #330
Improvement -0.2 #189 +0.3 #181

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.0% 30.2% 20.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.7% 20.5% 13.2%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 10.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 9.5% 11.5% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.0% 11.6% 8.8%
First Round22.3% 24.3% 15.6%
Second Round8.0% 8.7% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.7% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 76.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 25 - 26 - 7
Quad 310 - 116 - 8
Quad 47 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 82 McNeese St. W 79 - 67 74% +5  1 - 0 +16 +10 B C B- +6 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 10 83 @Xavier W 87 - 68 54% +15  2 - 0 +29 +17 B+ A+ B +11 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 74 Nevada W 98 - 83 72% +13  3 - 0 +20 +26 A+ A+ B- -6 D A A-
 Tue, Nov 18 228 Idaho St. W 64 - 55 94% +5  4 - 0 +2 -8 F C+ B+ +11 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 314 Louisiana W 80 - 43 97% +20  5 - 0 +25 +8 F A+ A+ +19 A+ B A+
 Thu, Nov 27 26 Saint Louis L 70 - 71 33% +3  5 - 1 +14 +5 C B D+ +10 A+ A C
 Fri, Nov 28 72 Minnesota W 86 - 75 61% +18  6 - 1 +19 +22 A+ A B+ -3 B+ F C
 Wed, Dec 3 223 Utah Tech W 90 - 80 94% +12  7 - 1 +3 +6 C+ A D- -3 F+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 43 @New Mexico L 71 - 98 35% -11  7 - 2 -12 +6 D A+ D+ -17 F F B
 Sat, Dec 13 77 Arizona St. L 79 - 82 63% +6  7 - 3 +5 +5 C+ C D+ +0 F+ D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 144 North Texas W 63 - 60 82% -2  8 - 3 +4 -2 D+ A+ F +6 A- F C
 Sat, Dec 20 280 Loyola Chicago L 78 - 80 94% -1  8 - 4 -9 +3 D- A+ C -12 F B+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 182 @Oregon St. W 102 - 64 82% +22  9 - 4 1 - 0 +39 +31 A+ C C+ +9 B- B A+
 Tue, Dec 30 218 @Portland W 92 - 85 85% +1  10 - 4 2 - 0 +7 +18 A+ C D- -12 F F+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 281 Pepperdine W 82 - 63 96% +7  11 - 4 3 - 0 +9 +1 A F C +7 B+ D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 208 San Diego W 98 - 70 93% +12  12 - 4 4 - 0 +22 +16 B A+ C +5 C- A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 8 11 @Gonzaga L 77 - 89 14% -6  12 - 5 4 - 1 +11 +12 B+ A C -0 D D B+
 Sat, Jan 10 162 Loyola Marymount W 103 - 72 90% +17  13 - 5 5 - 1 +28 +22 A A+ A+ +3 A- D+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 123 Pacific W 85 - 69 86% +4  14 - 5 6 - 1 +15 +18 B+ A+ A+ -1 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 42 St. Mary's W 62 - 54 58% +7  15 - 5 7 - 1 +17 -4 C- D C +21 A+ B+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 208 @San Diego W 85 - 73 84% +14  16 - 5 8 - 1 +12 +6 A+ D F +5 B A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 98 San Francisco W 88 - 73 79% +4  17 - 5 9 - 1 +17 +17 A+ B+ B+ +0 D- A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 162 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 70 77%
 Wed, Feb 4 123 @Pacific W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Feb 7 131 @Washington St. W 82 - 76 71%
 Wed, Feb 11 124 Seattle W 77 - 65 86%
 Sat, Feb 14 11 Gonzaga L 77 - 83 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 98 @San Francisco W 76 - 73 60%
 Wed, Feb 25 42 @St. Mary's L 72 - 76 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 182 Oregon St. W 83 - 67 93%
Totals 22 - 8 14 - 4 +11 +6 B A- C+ +4 B- C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 5.4 2.6 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.5 16.0 23.4 7.8 52.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 7.0 14.4 12.2 2.4 37.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.7 7.6 19.0 28.3 27.4 13.2 2.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.6    1.4 1.2
16-2 40.7% 5.4    1.0 3.9 0.4
15-3 5.5% 1.5    0.1 0.8 0.6
14-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 2.6 5.9 1.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.6% 78.5% 27.8% 50.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 70.2%
16-2 13.2% 53.1% 17.0% 36.1% 10.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 2.8 0.0 6.2 43.5%
15-3 27.4% 34.8% 13.5% 21.3% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 5.5 0.1 17.8 24.7%
14-4 28.3% 22.0% 10.3% 11.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.4 0.1 22.0 13.1%
13-5 19.0% 12.8% 6.8% 6.0% 10.9 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.1 16.5 6.5%
12-6 7.6% 9.0% 6.4% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 6.9 2.8%
11-7 1.7% 5.3% 4.1% 1.2% 11.1 0.1 0.0 1.6 1.2%
10-8 0.3% 6.1% 6.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.0% 11.4% 16.6% 10.3 72.0 18.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 7.1 0.7 6.9 25.5 27.6 26.2 12.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 73.2% 9.6 0.4 1.1 12.0 16.2 28.9 14.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 60.9% 9.9 3.3 16.3 23.9 17.4