Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.2 #326
Expected Predictive Rating -9.3 #318
Pace 69.7 #160
Improvement -0.6 #220

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #259 D+ D+ C+ C+ C-
Defense #350 D- F+ C- B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #200 1.00 #339 -3.5 #301
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #118 0.82 #91 +1.8 #87
Three Pointers 39% #222 0.95 #262 -2.4 #264
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #296 -4.0 #297
Freethrows 0.29 #225 79% #7 0.23 #138
Second Chance 26.5% #291 0.99 #240 0.26 #290
Turnovers 15.5% #119
Total Offense -3.1 #259

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.23 #272 -2.1 #251
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #236 0.83 #298 +0.0 #183
Three Pointers 42% #166 1.21 #361 -4.2 #331
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #348 -6.4 #348
Freethrows 0.24 #36 73% #208 0.18 #38
Second Chance 38.3% #360 1.10 #263 0.42 #353
Turnovers 15.8% #218
Total Defense -7.1 #350

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #244 0.7% #230
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.0% #296 11.6% #351
Possession Length 17.9 #229 16.3 #36
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #281 0.21 #291
Improvement -2.9 #330 +2.3 #56

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.3% 14.4% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 0.7% 8.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 72.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 410 - 1011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 44 @USC L 83 - 114 2% -16  0 - 1 -16 +6 C+ D B+ -18 C+ F C-
 Wed, Nov 12 223 Utah Tech W 79 - 75 26% +3  1 - 1 +0 +10 B- B+ D- -10 B F D-
 Fri, Nov 14 97 @Hawaii L 56 - 86 5% -15  1 - 2 -22 -11 C F C -10 C F F
 Sat, Nov 15 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 73 89% +5  2 - 2 -17 +6 C+ B F -23 F F B
 Fri, Nov 21 30 @Texas A&M L 68 - 109 1% -21  2 - 3 -23 -1 B- F C- -20 F C F+
 Wed, Nov 26 324 Wagner L 101 - 103 OT 60% +8  2 - 4 -15 +10 C- B B- -25 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 335 @Army L 78 - 81 OT 42% -3  2 - 5 -11 -5 F C C -6 F+ C- B+
 Fri, Dec 5 272 Fairfield W 70 - 66 46% +4  3 - 5 1 - 0 -5 -11 F+ F+ F +6 B- B- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 159 @Marist L 68 - 80 11% -3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -9 -3 C F C -6 C- D- D+
 Sat, Dec 13 195 @Fordham L 53 - 82 15% -11  3 - 7 -28 -13 F D+ C -17 F F+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 158 Furman L 68 - 75 24% -2  3 - 8 -10 -5 C- D+ D -4 D+ D- A
 Sun, Dec 21 269 Presbyterian W 87 - 81 45% +3  4 - 8 -3 +9 B+ D A- -12 D D D-
 Mon, Dec 29 352 @Rider W 74 - 71 50% -2  5 - 8 2 - 1 -7 +3 F+ C+ D- -10 D F C
 Fri, Jan 2 176 Quinnipiac W 80 - 79 29% -8  6 - 8 3 - 1 -3 +4 B- F B- -8 B- F A
 Sun, Jan 4 206 @Merrimack L 66 - 73 16% -4  6 - 9 3 - 2 -7 -3 D+ F A+ -5 F B D
 Fri, Jan 9 342 Canisius L 64 - 70 67% +1  6 - 10 3 - 3 -21 -10 D- F D -11 D+ D+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 349 Niagara W 79 - 70 69% -1  7 - 10 4 - 3 -6 +12 F A+ A+ -17 F B C-
 Wed, Jan 14 272 @Fairfield L 62 - 98 25% -20  7 - 11 4 - 4 -39 -16 F D F+ -23 F D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 173 Siena L 59 - 74 27% -12  7 - 12 4 - 5 -19 -8 F+ D- A- -12 F B B
 Mon, Jan 19 176 @Quinnipiac L 92 - 98 OT 14% +1  7 - 13 4 - 6 -4 +10 C- C+ B+ -13 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 24 225 @Iona L 57 - 66 19% -8  7 - 14 4 - 7 -10 -10 F D C- -1 C C C+
 Fri, Jan 30 352 Rider W 75 - 69 72%
 Sun, Feb 1 286 @Mount St. Mary's L 72 - 78 29%
 Thu, Feb 5 226 St. Peter's L 70 - 73 37%
 Sat, Feb 7 277 Sacred Heart L 80 - 81 48%
 Fri, Feb 13 349 @Niagara L 70 - 71 47%
 Sun, Feb 15 342 @Canisius L 69 - 71 45%
 Fri, Feb 20 159 Marist L 66 - 73 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 226 @St. Peter's L 67 - 76 20%
 Sun, Mar 1 225 Iona L 76 - 79 37%
Totals 11 - 19 8 - 12 -10 -3 D+ D+ C+ -7 D- F+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.4 6th
7th 0.4 3.7 4.4 0.6 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.5 5.2 8.1 1.6 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.7 7.0 12.4 3.8 0.1 24.1 9th
10th 0.8 7.1 13.1 5.4 0.3 26.7 10th
11th 0.1 3.4 7.5 3.4 0.4 14.8 11th
12th 0.7 2.5 1.3 0.1 4.6 12th
13th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 1.1 6.9 16.7 24.0 23.8 16.2 7.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.6% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
10-10 7.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.8
9-11 16.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 16.1
8-12 23.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 23.8
7-13 24.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 24.0
6-14 16.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.7
5-15 6.9% 6.9
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%