UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#268
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#229
Pace67.5#235
Improvement+0.6#140

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#222
First Shot+2.8#101
After Offensive Rebound-4.7#357
Layup/Dunks+0.9#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
Freethrows+0.2#164
Improvement+1.5#73

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#297
First Shot-5.9#345
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#50
Layups/Dunks-5.5#340
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#107
Freethrows+0.7#140
Improvement-0.8#253
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 9.4% 20.8% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 29.0% 37.8% 27.3%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.2% 8.0% 11.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 49 - 612 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 342 @North Dakota W 74-70 61%     1 - 0 -4.5 -1.7 -2.8
  Tue, Nov 11 71 @New Mexico L 68-82 7%     1 - 1 -3.1 +4.5 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 15 342 North Dakota L 74-76 80%     1 - 2 -16.5 -8.3 -8.0
  Tue, Nov 18 126 @California Baptist L 57-80 15%     1 - 3 -17.7 -17.9 +2.0
  Fri, Nov 21 248 @San Diego W 85-71 35%     2 - 3 +12.1 +12.7 -0.1
  Mon, Nov 24 284 Grambling St. W 83-74 65%     3 - 3 -0.7 +8.6 -9.2
  Sat, Nov 29 264 @Utah Tech L 69-77 38%     3 - 4 -10.5 +3.3 -14.7
  Thu, Dec 4 122 @UC Irvine L 60-73 14%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -7.1 -2.9 -4.5
  Sat, Dec 6 250 @Cal Poly W 88-84 36%     4 - 5 1 - 1 +1.9 +12.3 -10.5
  Sat, Dec 13 9 @BYU L 53-100 1%     4 - 6 -24.7 -13.8 -7.5
  Sat, Dec 20 135 @St. Thomas L 69-79 16%    
  Tue, Dec 23 30 @UCLA L 60-83 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 110 Hawaii L 68-74 28%    
  Thu, Jan 8 311 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-74 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 89 UC San Diego L 71-80 21%    
  Thu, Jan 15 277 @Long Beach St. L 71-74 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 269 Cal St. Fullerton W 82-79 61%    
  Thu, Jan 22 122 UC Irvine L 66-72 30%    
  Sat, Jan 24 198 @UC Davis L 69-75 29%    
  Thu, Jan 29 277 Long Beach St. W 74-71 63%    
  Sat, Jan 31 250 Cal Poly W 83-81 58%    
  Thu, Feb 5 269 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79-82 39%    
  Sat, Feb 7 221 @Cal St. Northridge L 77-82 32%    
  Thu, Feb 12 150 UC Santa Barbara L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Feb 14 89 @UC San Diego L 68-83 10%    
  Thu, Feb 19 311 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 198 UC Davis L 71-72 49%    
  Thu, Feb 26 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Feb 28 221 Cal St. Northridge W 80-79 53%    
  Fri, Mar 6 110 @Hawaii L 65-77 14%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.7 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.4 2.8 6.3 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.4 7.0 4.3 1.1 0.1 16.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.5 4.2 0.7 0.0 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.6 3.7 0.6 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.9 8.5 11.7 14.5 14.9 13.5 11.3 8.0 4.9 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 91.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 60.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 21.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 23.5% 23.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 14.7% 14.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.3% 8.6% 8.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.8% 5.3% 5.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
12-8 4.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8
11-9 8.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 7.8
10-10 11.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.2
9-11 13.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.4
8-12 14.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.9
7-13 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
6-14 11.7% 11.7
5-15 8.5% 8.5
4-16 4.9% 4.9
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%