Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +24.3 #2
Expected Predictive Rating +33.2 #1
Pace 76.2 #30
Improvement +0.5 #160

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #4 A B B A- C
Defense #3 A A B- B+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #18 1.42 #5 +10.4 #3
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #77 0.88 #43 +3.8 #29
Three Pointers 28% #362 1.15 #25 -4.8 #327
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #5 +9.4 #5
Freethrows 0.37 #15 74% #122 0.27 #16
Second Chance 40.0% #9 0.99 #244 0.40 #45
Turnovers 13.8% #39
Total Offense +12.3 #4

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #350 0.91 #5 +8.7 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #4 0.67 #54 -2.9 #352
Three Pointers 38% #255 0.92 #62 +3.2 #62
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #4 +9.0 #4
Freethrows 0.23 #19 70% #65 0.16 #18
Second Chance 22.6% #5 0.86 #12 0.20 #4
Turnovers 18.0% #78
Total Defense +12.0 #3

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #214 -4.1% #7
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 18.8% #2 -14.0% #7
Possession Length 15.0 #17 18.0 #281
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.30 #5 0.10 #22
Improvement +0.2 #169 +0.3 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 33.0% 33.9% 24.7%
#1 Seed 81.4% 82.3% 73.3%
Top 2 Seed 99.2% 99.2% 98.6%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.2 1.2 1.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 77.7% 80.2% 55.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.6% 99.6% 99.4%
Sweet Sixteen84.2% 84.6% 80.6%
Elite Eight61.4% 61.9% 57.6%
Final Four41.5% 42.0% 36.9%
Championship Game26.1% 26.6% 21.7%
National Champion15.3% 15.7% 11.3%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 90.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a9 - 29 - 2
Quad 1b7 - 116 - 3
Quad 26 - 022 - 3
Quad 32 - 024 - 3
Quad 47 - 031 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 5 Florida W 93 - 87 62% +1  1 - 0 +27 +18 A+ B C- +9 B A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 219 Utah Tech W 93 - 67 99% +11  2 - 0 +20 +15 A+ D- C- +4 A C+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 306 Northern Arizona W 84 - 49 100% +24  3 - 0 +24 +2 C+ C+ D- +21 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 34 UCLA W 69 - 65 83% -1  4 - 0 +18 +5 B- A- D+ +13 C+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 10 @Connecticut W 71 - 67 55% +4  5 - 0 +27 +18 C A+ B+ +9 B+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 289 Denver W 103 - 73 100% +23  6 - 0 +20 +12 A+ B- F +6 B+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 296 Norfolk St. W 98 - 61 100% +17  7 - 0 +26 +14 B B+ B+ +9 C+ B- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 25 Auburn W 97 - 68 86% +15  8 - 0 +42 +22 A+ A- B- +18 A+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 16 Alabama W 96 - 75 73% +7  9 - 0 +39 +21 A+ C A+ +16 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 259 Abilene Christian W 96 - 62 99% +21  10 - 0 +25 +16 A+ A+ F +8 B+ A- B-
 Sat, Dec 20 41 San Diego St. W 68 - 45 87% +5  11 - 0 +35 +11 B- A- B+ +27 A+ A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 249 Bethune-Cookman W 107 - 71 99% +15  12 - 0 +28 +18 A+ B- F+ +6 D- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 179 South Dakota St. W 99 - 71 99% +16  13 - 0 +24 +13 A- A+ D +7 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 104 @Utah W 97 - 78 93% +15  14 - 0 1 - 0 +27 +18 B+ A B+ +8 A+ C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 87 Kansas St. W 101 - 76 96% +14  15 - 0 2 - 0 +29 +15 B A+ A+ +10 A+ A D-
 Sat, Jan 10 46 @TCU W 86 - 73 82% +12  16 - 0 3 - 0 +28 +17 A- B+ A+ +10 A+ B+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 77 Arizona St. W 89 - 82 96% +3  17 - 0 4 - 0 +11 +15 B A+ A+ -4 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 50 @Central Florida W 84 - 77 84% +6  18 - 0 5 - 0 +21 +11 A D- B- +9 A+ C B-
 Wed, Jan 21 52 Cincinnati W 77 - 51 93% +7  19 - 0 6 - 0 +33 +19 D A+ A+ +16 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 57 West Virginia W 88 - 53 94% +19  20 - 0 7 - 0 +42 +23 A+ C- A+ +20 A+ A+ C+
 Mon, Jan 26 14 @BYU W 86 - 83 59% +9  21 - 0 8 - 0 +25 +16 A+ D- C +8 A A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 77 @Arizona St. W 89 - 75 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 63 Oklahoma St. W 95 - 77 96%
 Mon, Feb 9 17 @Kansas W 78 - 75 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 15 Texas Tech W 85 - 76 79%
 Wed, Feb 18 14 BYU W 87 - 79 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 4 @Houston L 73 - 74 49%
 Tue, Feb 24 47 @Baylor W 86 - 76 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 17 Kansas W 81 - 72 80%
 Mon, Mar 2 6 Iowa St. W 82 - 76 72%
 Sat, Mar 7 85 @Colorado W 89 - 74 91%
Totals 29 - 2 16 - 2 +24 +12 A B B +12 A A B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 15.2 27.5 23.2 9.7 77.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 5.6 6.1 1.1 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 3.1 0.3 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.4 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.5 11.3 21.6 28.5 23.2 9.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.7    9.7
17-1 100.0% 23.2    22.4 0.8
16-2 96.2% 27.5    21.7 5.6 0.2
15-3 70.3% 15.2    5.7 7.5 1.8 0.2
14-4 19.2% 2.2    0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 77.7% 77.7 59.7 14.5 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.7% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.1 9.0 0.7 100.0%
17-1 23.2% 100.0% 46.0% 54.0% 1.1 21.1 2.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 28.5% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 1.2 24.1 4.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 21.6% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.2 16.4 5.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 11.3% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.3 8.1 3.0 0.2 100.0%
13-5 4.5% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 1.5 2.5 1.7 0.3 100.0%
12-6 1.1% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 1.8 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.2% 100.0% 3.2% 96.8% 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 1.2 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.7% 100.0% 1.1 94.6 5.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9% 100.0% 1.0 95.6 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0% 100.0% 1.1 91.1 8.9