Creighton
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.0 #55
Expected Predictive Rating +9.3 #64
Pace 67.5 #222
Improvement -2.3 #290

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #45 B C- B+ D+ C
Defense #99 B- B- D+ A B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.37 #12 +0.4 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #282 0.77 #147 -1.6 #263
Three Pointers 51% #20 1.07 #98 +6.6 #20
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #49 +5.4 #49
Freethrows 0.26 #306 76% #69 0.20 #262
Second Chance 29.0% #227 1.01 #224 0.29 #239
Turnovers 13.7% #36
Total Offense +7.3 #45

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.12 #127 +0.4 #155
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #15 0.69 #66 -1.9 #324
Three Pointers 33% #355 0.99 #138 +4.8 #21
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #75 +3.3 #73
Freethrows 0.20 #4 70% #58 0.14 #5
Second Chance 27.4% #72 0.98 #96 0.27 #69
Turnovers 15.0% #270
Total Defense +2.7 #99

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #164 -1.9% #46
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.0% #43 -4.6% #94
Possession Length 17.5 #187 18.0 #289
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #36 0.10 #12
Improvement +1.4 #113 -3.7 #343

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.0% 40.3% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.5% 37.3% 13.7%
Average Seed 10.1 9.9 10.3
.500 or above 75.6% 91.2% 70.4%
.500 or above in Conference 72.9% 90.2% 67.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four9.9% 14.7% 8.3%
First Round16.7% 32.5% 11.5%
Second Round6.0% 12.3% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Home) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 10
Quad 26 - 48 - 14
Quad 34 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 287 South Dakota W 92 - 76 96% +12  1 - 0 +6 +8 D- A+ D- -3 C B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 11 @Gonzaga L 63 - 90 12% -11  1 - 1 -4 -1 C+ F F+ -2 D+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 332 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 45 98% +18  2 - 1 +25 +14 A B B +15 B+ A+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 290 North Dakota W 75 - 60 96% +9  3 - 1 +5 +2 F A+ B+ +4 B B+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 48 Baylor L 74 - 81 46% -5  3 - 2 +4 +7 A- D+ F+ -3 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 9 Iowa St. L 60 - 78 16% -10  3 - 3 +2 -0 B+ F D- +2 A+ F+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 79 Oregon W 76 - 66 61% +6  4 - 3 +17 +9 C+ F A+ +8 A+ B D-
 Tue, Dec 2 255 Nicholls St. W 96 - 76 95% +15  5 - 3 +12 +22 A+ C+ A- -9 D- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 13 @Nebraska L 50 - 71 13% -14  5 - 4 +1 -7 F+ C C+ +6 A- B C
 Sat, Dec 13 87 Kansas St. L 76 - 83 73% -8  5 - 5 -3 +9 B- D- A+ -12 B C- F
 Wed, Dec 17 83 @Xavier W 98 - 57 51% +21  6 - 5 1 - 0 +51 +25 A+ D+ C+ +24 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 93 Marquette W 84 - 63 76% +14  7 - 5 2 - 0 +24 +5 B D+ B+ +17 A+ A+ B
 Mon, Dec 22 223 Utah Tech W 92 - 69 93% +11  8 - 5 +16 +13 A+ F C +3 C D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 60 Butler W 89 - 85 65% +7  9 - 5 3 - 0 +10 +14 A- A C -4 B+ B C
 Sun, Jan 4 53 @Seton Hall L 54 - 56 38% +5  9 - 6 3 - 1 +11 -2 D C- A+ +13 A+ A+ D
 Wed, Jan 7 36 @Villanova W 76 - 72 25% -2  10 - 6 4 - 1 +21 +19 A+ B A+ +2 A A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 18 St. John's L 73 - 90 33% -13  10 - 7 4 - 2 -3 +10 A+ F A+ -13 F A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 89 Georgetown W 86 - 83 OT 74% -1  11 - 7 5 - 2 +6 +22 A+ D+ A+ -15 F F C-
 Fri, Jan 16 66 @Providence L 88 - 93 44% -1  11 - 8 5 - 3 +6 +9 D+ B+ B -2 A F C-
 Wed, Jan 21 83 Xavier W 94 - 93 72% +1  12 - 8 6 - 3 +5 +20 A+ D+ A+ -15 F C C
 Tue, Jan 27 93 @Marquette L 62 - 86 55% -17  12 - 9 6 - 4 -15 -5 C F C- -10 F B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 10 Connecticut L 69 - 76 25%
 Wed, Feb 4 89 @Georgetown W 75 - 74 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 53 Seton Hall W 71 - 68 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 95 @DePaul W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 36 Villanova L 71 - 72 46%
 Wed, Feb 18 10 @Connecticut L 66 - 79 11%
 Sat, Feb 21 18 @St. John's L 74 - 84 17%
 Wed, Feb 25 95 DePaul W 77 - 70 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 66 Providence W 88 - 83 67%
 Wed, Mar 4 60 @Butler L 78 - 80 42%
Totals 17 - 14 11 - 9 +10 +7 B C- B+ +3 B- B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.9 5.9 5.0 1.7 0.2 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 10.3 15.9 9.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 40.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 7.8 10.8 4.0 0.4 0.0 23.7 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 6.6 1.8 0.1 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.9 0.8 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.3 2.3 7.5 17.1 23.2 22.9 15.8 8.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.6% 98.2% 18.9% 79.3% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 97.8%
14-6 2.4% 86.9% 9.8% 77.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 85.5%
13-7 8.0% 69.6% 5.5% 64.1% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.2 1.3 2.4 67.8%
12-8 15.8% 44.3% 4.5% 39.8% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.7 0.1 8.8 41.7%
11-9 22.9% 21.4% 3.2% 18.2% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.7 0.2 18.0 18.8%
10-10 23.2% 6.4% 2.5% 3.9% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.1 21.7 4.0%
9-11 17.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 16.9 0.1%
8-12 7.5% 0.9% 0.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4
7-13 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.0% 3.1% 18.9% 10.1 78.1 19.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%