Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.6 #148
Expected Predictive Rating +3.2 #116
Pace 70.2 #141
Improvement +1.7 #107

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #270 C D+ D D+ B-
Defense #68 B- B- C+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #38 1.15 #186 +3.4 #73
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #259 0.65 #327 -2.3 #296
Three Pointers 38% #236 1.03 #165 -1.0 #218
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #175 +0.1 #174
Freethrows 0.29 #234 68% #308 0.20 #264
Second Chance 30.6% #181 0.90 #333 0.28 #265
Turnovers 19.0% #325
Total Offense -3.4 #270

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.09 #92 -0.6 #199
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #210 0.69 #72 +1.1 #106
Three Pointers 39% #249 0.95 #89 +2.5 #90
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #80 +3.0 #80
Freethrows 0.37 #334 74% #253 0.27 #335
Second Chance 27.7% #84 0.98 #90 0.27 #73
Turnovers 17.8% #87
Total Defense +4.1 #68

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #60 0.8% #243
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.7% #204 -6.7% #63
Possession Length 18.1 #253 16.2 #28
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #211 0.20 #286
Improvement -1.0 #236 +2.7 #42

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.6% 27.1% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 98.2% 99.4% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 62.1% 73.4% 42.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.6% 27.1% 20.4%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 36 - 7
Quad 412 - 318 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 84 @Stanford L 79 - 89 19% -6  0 - 1 -0 +1 A+ F F -0 C+ C- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 98 @San Francisco L 70 - 80 24% -12  0 - 2 -2 +3 D B+ F -5 C- C+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93 - 80 86% +7  1 - 2 +2 +10 A+ B+ D- -9 D+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 223 @Utah Tech W 68 - 63 55% +1  2 - 2 +4 -7 D- D+ F +11 B- A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 287 @South Dakota W 77 - 71 68% +5  3 - 2 +2 -7 D+ F D+ +8 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 6 243 Nebraska Omaha L 55 - 60 78% -2  3 - 3 -13 -10 F C- D- -3 A F B-
 Wed, Dec 17 80 @Colorado L 73 - 84 19% -1  3 - 4 -1 +2 D+ A+ F+ -2 B- B- B
 Sat, Dec 20 175 @Tulane L 61 - 63 46% -3  3 - 5 -0 -7 F C- D +6 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 215 @Weber St. W 95 - 90 OT 54% +0  4 - 5 1 - 0 +5 +5 C- D+ B -1 B B F
 Sat, Jan 3 228 @Idaho St. W 93 - 87 OT 56% -5  5 - 5 2 - 0 +5 +13 A+ F A- -8 D- B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 294 Sacramento St. W 96 - 69 85% +14  6 - 5 3 - 0 +16 +14 A+ F+ C +1 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 197 Northern Colorado W 76 - 73 72% -1  7 - 5 4 - 0 -2 -4 C A- F +1 D A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 313 Northern Arizona W 63 - 52 88% +5  8 - 5 5 - 0 -1 -9 F+ C- D +9 C+ A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 241 @Eastern Washington W 65 - 61 58% +5  9 - 5 6 - 0 +3 -8 F B D+ +10 A C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 188 @Idaho W 69 - 66 48% +5  10 - 5 7 - 0 +4 -1 B+ F C +5 C+ A A-
 Thu, Jan 29 161 Montana W 74 - 70 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 155 Montana St. W 71 - 68 63%
 Mon, Feb 2 228 Idaho St. W 74 - 67 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 294 @Sacramento St. W 78 - 73 69%
 Thu, Feb 12 313 @Northern Arizona W 73 - 66 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 197 @Northern Colorado L 73 - 74 50%
 Thu, Feb 19 188 Idaho W 74 - 68 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 241 Eastern Washington W 77 - 69 77%
 Thu, Feb 26 155 @Montana St. L 68 - 71 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 161 @Montana L 71 - 73 42%
 Mon, Mar 2 215 Weber St. W 77 - 70 74%
Totals 17 - 9 14 - 4 +1 -3 C D+ D +4 B- B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 6.5 15.3 18.2 13.5 6.3 1.2 62.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.7 9.5 5.9 1.0 0.0 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.4 1.9 0.1 10.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 6.0 11.4 17.9 21.3 19.3 13.6 6.3 1.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 100.0% 6.3    6.3
16-2 99.8% 13.5    13.1 0.4
15-3 94.6% 18.2    15.1 3.1 0.0
14-4 71.8% 15.3    8.7 5.8 0.8
13-5 36.1% 6.5    2.0 3.1 1.2 0.1
12-6 8.6% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 62.1% 62.1 46.6 12.7 2.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 41.5% 41.5% 12.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7
17-1 6.3% 40.7% 40.7% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.8
16-2 13.6% 34.7% 34.7% 13.3 0.5 2.3 1.8 0.1 8.8
15-3 19.3% 28.4% 28.4% 13.6 0.1 2.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 13.8
14-4 21.3% 24.1% 24.1% 14.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 0.9 0.0 16.1
13-5 17.9% 19.3% 19.3% 14.2 0.4 1.9 1.1 0.0 14.4
12-6 11.4% 15.6% 15.6% 14.4 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.0 9.6
11-7 6.0% 12.3% 12.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 5.2
10-8 2.3% 9.0% 9.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.1
9-9 0.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 13.7 75.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.0 18.4 68.0 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%