Howard
Mid-Eastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.2 #254
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 #269
Pace 71.3 #111
Improvement +2.1 #98

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #328 D- B- F+ B- B-
Defense #136 C D+ B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #12 0.95 #360 -0.1 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #201 0.64 #335 -1.4 #259
Three Pointers 34% #327 0.95 #265 -4.8 #327
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #342 -6.4 #342
Freethrows 0.33 #100 74% #138 0.25 #95
Second Chance 35.0% #63 1.07 #119 0.37 #61
Turnovers 21.1% #352
Total Offense -6.1 #328

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #56 1.14 #157 -2.4 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #323 0.66 #32 +2.7 #15
Three Pointers 41% #175 1.00 #148 +0.3 #168
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #160 +0.6 #160
Freethrows 0.34 #288 72% #189 0.25 #281
Second Chance 32.8% #276 1.11 #294 0.36 #302
Turnovers 19.1% #68
Total Defense +0.9 #136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #89 1.9% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.7% #358 -3.0% #121
Possession Length 17.4 #185 16.3 #34
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #157 0.22 #323
Improvement -0.5 #212 +2.6 #49

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.6% 46.7% 37.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 97.2% 98.5% 87.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.7% 94.4%
Conference Champion 53.7% 57.9% 24.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four29.4% 29.2% 30.3%
First Round31.5% 32.8% 22.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 87.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 31 - 12 - 4
Quad 415 - 817 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 53 Missouri L 67 - 88 13% -14  0 - 1 -14 -6 C- D- C+ -8 D F B
 Sun, Nov 9 276 Grambling St. L 70 - 73 67% -1  0 - 2 -13 +1 A- A+ F -14 F+ F A-
 Thu, Nov 13 351 Alcorn St. W 72 - 64 84% +5  1 - 2 -8 -5 D+ A+ F -3 D+ A+ F+
 Wed, Nov 19 335 @Stetson L 60 - 64 61% -10  1 - 3 -12 -16 F F C+ +4 B C+ A-
 Sat, Nov 22 342 Niagara W 80 - 70 74% -4  2 - 3 -2 -4 F+ C+ F +1 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 3 @Duke L 56 - 93 1% -29  2 - 4 -10 -4 F C+ A- -6 F+ B- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 298 @Mount St. Mary's L 75 - 79 49% -5  2 - 5 -9 +2 F A A+ -11 F D- D+
 Tue, Dec 9 286 N.C. A&T W 73 - 69 57% +8  3 - 5 -3 -1 B F F -2 A F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 247 Hampton W 61 - 57 49% +3  4 - 5 -1 -10 F+ F C +9 A+ B D
 Tue, Dec 16 221 @Drexel W 74 - 66 32% +7  5 - 5 +8 +8 C+ A F +0 C- B- C+
 Sat, Dec 20 119 @UNC Wilmington W 67 - 66 16% +4  6 - 5 +7 -1 D B F +8 A+ F A-
 Tue, Dec 30 67 @Northwestern L 60 - 80 7% -5  6 - 6 -9 -2 C- B- F+ -9 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 356 @South Carolina St. L 57 - 58 73% -7  6 - 7 0 - 1 -12 -20 F C- D +7 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 346 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 57 - 69 64% +2  6 - 8 0 - 2 -21 -20 F C- F -0 C- C+ C
 Mon, Jan 12 353 Delaware St. W 84 - 58 86% +14  7 - 8 1 - 2 +9 +16 C+ A+ A+ -4 C D- B
 Sat, Jan 17 344 @NC Central W 83 - 69 64% +5  8 - 8 2 - 2 +5 +8 D- A+ D+ -2 F+ B- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 354 Morgan St. L 77 - 78 86% +3  8 - 9 2 - 3 -18 -15 F A+ F -3 A F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 309 Norfolk St. W 88 - 60 74% +15  9 - 9 3 - 3 +16 +11 B- A+ F +5 B+ A- C+
 Mon, Feb 2 364 @Coppin St. W 72 - 53 88% +8  10 - 9 4 - 3 +1 +0 F A- F +3 B+ D D+
 Sat, Feb 7 356 South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 87%
 Mon, Feb 9 79 Yale L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Feb 14 346 Maryland Eastern Shore W 70 - 60 82%
 Mon, Feb 16 353 @Delaware St. W 70 - 64 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 344 NC Central W 76 - 66 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 354 @Morgan St. W 78 - 72 71%
 Mon, Mar 2 364 Coppin St. W 82 - 64 96%
 Thu, Mar 5 309 @Norfolk St. W 71 - 70 53%
Totals 16 - 11 9 - 5 -5 -6 D- B- F+ +1 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 9.7 27.3 16.6 53.7 1st
2nd 2.8 16.0 5.9 0.2 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 7.3 4.1 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 3.8 0.1 5.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 0.4 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.7 14.5 29.9 33.2 16.8 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 98.6% 16.6    14.6 2.0
10-4 82.0% 27.3    14.1 11.0 2.1 0.0
9-5 32.4% 9.7    0.7 3.3 3.9 1.7 0.1
8-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 53.7% 53.7 29.4 16.3 6.0 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 16.8% 58.3% 58.3% 15.6 0.0 0.7 2.2 6.9 7.0
10-4 33.2% 51.2% 51.2% 15.9 0.0 1.1 15.9 16.2
9-5 29.9% 42.0% 42.0% 16.0 0.4 12.1 17.3
8-6 14.5% 32.2% 32.2% 16.0 0.1 4.6 9.8
7-7 4.7% 28.3% 28.3% 16.0 1.3 3.3
6-8 0.9% 24.4% 24.4% 16.0 0.2 0.7
5-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 45.6% 45.6% 0.0% 15.9 54.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 14.9 0.8 26.4 56.9 15.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%