Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +13.7 39
Expected Predictive Rating +12.8 46
Pace 67.6 212
Improvement -0.6 212

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #23 A- B B- A- D+
Defense B- #70 B C+ C B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 239 71% 4 +3.7 61
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 91 51% 4 +4.7 15
Three Pointers 39% 223 35% 131 -0.4 194
1st FG Attempt 1.18 17 +7.9 17
Second Chance 35.7% 52 1.08 105 0.38 52
Turnovers 15.2% 76
Freethrows 0.36 33 77% 24 0.28 13
Total Offense +9.7 23

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 342 54% 82 +5.5 30
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 16 40% 258 -3.5 359
Three Pointers 41% 183 30% 36 +2.5 83
1st FG Attempt 0.93 48 +4.5 48
Second Chance 29.0% 111 0.99 126 0.29 108
Turnovers 17.1% 178
Freethrows 0.27 79 74% 281 0.20 109
Total Defense +4.0 70

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.7 275 -1.5 16
Shot Type Accuracy +8.5 7 -3.0 63
Possession Length 16.4 87 18.7 346
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 251 0.10 19
Improvement +1.6 #101 -2.2 #302

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 2.1% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.5% 59.6% 40.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.3% 59.3% 39.8%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 10.0
.500 or above 99.5% 100.0% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.7% 87.5% 55.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four16.9% 17.4% 15.8%
First Round46.5% 52.6% 32.8%
Second Round21.5% 24.8% 14.0%
Sweet Sixteen5.1% 5.9% 3.3%
Elite Eight1.8% 2.2% 1.0%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Home) - 69.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 11
Quad 26 - 29 - 13
Quad 35 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 331 IU Indianapolis W 118 - 102 99% +13  97% 1 - 0 C+ +2 A +12 A+ C C- F -13 F+ D- D+
 Fri, Nov 7 242 Purdue Fort Wayne W 94 - 68 96% +14  99% 2 - 0 A +18 A- +11 A+ B- F B+ +6 A- D B+
 Tue, Nov 11 174 Appalachian St. W 75 - 53 94% +6  51% 3 - 0 A +18 A- +10 C- A A+ A +11 A D D+
 Sun, Nov 16 84 Notre Dame W 64 - 63 83% -3  19% 4 - 0 C+ +4 D- -6 C F C A +11 B A+ B+
 Thu, Nov 20 289 Western Michigan W 91 - 58 98% +25  100% 5 - 0 A +23 B- +5 A- D+ D- A+ +16 A+ B A-
 Tue, Nov 25 290 Mount St. Mary's W 113 - 60 98% +25  97% 6 - 0 A+ +43 A+ +29 A+ A+ B+ A +11 B A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 98 @Pittsburgh L 66 - 67 70% -4  19% 6 - 1 B- +7 C- -1 C- B- D A- +8 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 64 @Northwestern W 86 - 82 59% +0  51% 7 - 1 1 - 0 A- +15 A +13 A+ C B C+ +2 B+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 6 Illinois L 80 - 88 30% -4  8% 7 - 2 1 - 1 B +11 A +11 A- A A C -0 C- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 56 West Virginia W 89 - 88 2OT 64% -4  13% 8 - 2 B +11 B +7 D+ A+ A+ B- +4 C B B
 Sat, Dec 20 27 North Carolina L 70 - 71 42% -4  13% 8 - 3 A- +15 B +6 B D+ A+ A- +9 A B- D+
 Tue, Dec 23 272 Grambling St. W 89 - 63 97% +13  94% 9 - 3 A- +17 A+ +16 A+ F+ D+ C+ +1 A- F+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 119 @Rutgers W 80 - 73 78% -1  46% 10 - 3 2 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +17 A+ C+ D C- -3 B- D- D
 Mon, Jan 5 12 Nebraska L 69 - 72 42% -5  9% 10 - 4 2 - 2 B+ +13 B- +4 A F A+ A- +9 A A A
 Thu, Jan 8 79 @Oregon W 72 - 62 63% +8  97% 11 - 4 3 - 2 A +20 A- +10 C+ A+ D A +11 A+ B F
 Sun, Jan 11 45 @Washington L 74 - 81 45% -0  48% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B +8 A +11 B B D+ D+ -4 C B F+
 Sat, Jan 17 34 UCLA W 86 - 74 59% +9  99% 12 - 5 4 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +26 A A+ A- C -1 B B F
 Tue, Jan 20 73 Minnesota W 82 - 74 OT 80% +2  70% 13 - 5 5 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +9 B+ A+ A B +4 A- A- D-
 Fri, Jan 23 1 @Michigan L 62 - 74 9% -2  28% 13 - 6 5 - 4 A- +17 B +7 B A D+ A- +9 A+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 113 Penn St. W 84 - 78 89% +8  96% 14 - 6 6 - 4 B- +6 B+ +8 A F A+ C -1 C- F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 38 @Wisconsin L 82 - 92 38% -4  24% 14 - 7 6 - 5 B- +7 A +13 C+ A- A+ D -6 D+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 5 112 @Maryland W 82 - 62 75% +11  91% 15 - 7 7 - 5 A+ +27 A+ +21 A- A+ A A- +9 D D+ A+
 Sun, Feb 8 1 Michigan L 61 - 82 19% -10  0% 15 - 8 7 - 6 C+ +2 C +2 B+ C+ C+ C -1 B- A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 46 USC W 80 - 75 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 23 Virginia L 73 - 76 39%
 Tue, Feb 17 38 Wisconsin W 81 - 78 61%
 Sun, Feb 22 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 78 20%
 Wed, Feb 25 22 @Iowa L 70 - 76 28%
 Sun, Mar 1 9 Purdue L 74 - 78 37%
 Wed, Mar 4 113 @Penn St. W 83 - 76 76%
 Sat, Mar 7 36 Indiana W 78 - 76 59%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +14 A- +10 A- B B- B- +4 B C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A A+ C+ A 36% 25% 39% D+ A- B C+ B B- B+ B+ A- B- B- C- B+ B 31% 28% 41% A- B C+ C+ C+ C B- D+ B-
1.22 71% 51% 35% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.1 .38 15% .36 77% .28 1.03 54% 40% 30% -3 -1 0.93 29% 1.0 .29 17% .27 74% .27
Nov
3		 IU Indianapolis A A+ A+ A A+ 43% 15% 41% C- A+ A F C C- A+ B A+ F F F B F 21% 27% 52% A- F+ C- F D- D+ F C F
1.37 85% 57% 42% +20 +1 1.43 46% 1.0 .46 20% .77 79% .61 1.19 71% 67% 29% +7 -2 1.12 29% 1.3 .38 15% .27 70% .19
Nov
7		 Purdue Fort Wayne A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 56% C A+ D- A+ B- F C- C+ C- B+ F A+ A+ A- 38% 24% 38% B A- C+ F D B+ D- A- C-
1.29 81% 60% 59% +31 +1 1.67 29% 1.5 .43 26% .24 77% .19 0.94 71% 15% 24% -6 0 0.89 19% 1.4 .28 18% .29 65% .18
Nov
11		 Appalachian St. A- A+ C- F C 21% 23% 55% F+ C- B- A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ A- B- A- 24% 29% 47% A+ A A+ F D D+ A+ C A+
1.22 70% 36% 27% -4 -2 0.91 33% 1.3 .44 7% .56 75% .42 0.86 42% 29% 30% -9 -2 0.80 21% 1.7 .35 15% .15 63% .10
Nov
16		 Notre Dame D- A D- C+ B- 21% 34% 45% F C F F F C A+ A A+ A A+ F C+ C 31% 50% 19% A+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ D- A+ C
0.96 70% 31% 33% 0 -3 0.96 12% 0.5 .06 15% .41 83% .34 0.94 47% 54% 33% +4 -4 1.02 23% 0.3 .06 19% .37 60% .22
Nov
20		 Western Michigan B- A+ A+ D+ A 33% 16% 51% C- A- A+ F D+ D- A- A- A A+ A- A A+ A+ 21% 42% 38% A+ A+ B+ B- B A- C+ D+ C
1.25 83% 56% 32% +10 0 1.22 47% 0.7 .33 17% .38 78% .30 0.80 45% 27% 25% -12 -4 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 22% .27 73% .19
Nov
25		 Mount St. Mary's A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 28% 50% F+ A+ B- A+ A+ B+ D A+ C A F F A+ C+ 25% 23% 52% A+ B A+ A+ A+ F C+ A+ B+
1.54 77% 75% 48% +25 -2 1.48 33% 1.6 .52 11% .29 84% .25 0.82 69% 58% 19% -4 -1 0.90 19% 0.4 .07 18% .30 56% .17
Nov
28		 Pittsburgh C- B+ C F C- 36% 17% 47% C C- C+ B- B- D C A+ B- A- D A+ B- B 36% 35% 29% A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ F B- B+ B
1.01 65% 38% 27% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.0 .28 20% .29 87% .25 1.03 65% 26% 31% -3 -2 0.93 36% 0.4 .13 8% .27 63% .17
Dec
6		 Northwestern A A+ B D- A+ 50% 23% 27% B A+ C- B- C B B F C C+ C+ C A- A- 38% 20% 42% C- B+ F F F A+ B- F D+
1.20 85% 42% 29% +12 +1 1.27 30% 1.0 .30 15% .33 60% .20 1.15 58% 40% 29% -3 0 0.96 39% 1.8 .70 20% .31 89% .28
Dec
9		 Illinois A A+ A- D A- 24% 26% 50% B- A- D+ A+ A A A+ C+ A+ C B+ C F D 23% 26% 51% A+ C- A+ A+ A+ C F F F
1.15 69% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 20% 1.9 .37 9% .33 71% .24 1.26 55% 42% 46% +9 -2 1.17 28% 0.9 .25 13% .53 91% .48
Dec
13		 West Virginia B C+ A+ F C- 35% 32% 33% D- D+ A- A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ B- F D+ 31% 27% 42% A+ C B- B- B B F F F
1.07 57% 47% 15% -7 -2 0.85 32% 1.9 .62 12% .33 88% .29 1.06 38% 36% 50% +3 -1 1.06 29% 1.1 .32 18% .50 76% .38
Dec
20		 North Carolina B D+ A+ F A- 24% 45% 31% F B B+ F D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- B- B- B+ A+ 36% 15% 49% C A B C B- D+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 50% 55% 27% +2 -4 0.98 33% 0.5 .18 9% .32 84% .27 1.10 58% 38% 31% -2 +1 0.98 32% 1.2 .37 11% .23 54% .12
Dec
23		 Grambling St. A+ A+ A+ B A+ 44% 20% 36% C- A+ A- F F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D- A A- 33% 26% 41% B+ A- D- F+ F+ B- F D+ F
1.33 85% 78% 38% +22 +1 1.47 43% 0.6 .24 21% .47 84% .40 0.94 40% 42% 26% -10 -1 0.80 33% 1.1 .36 22% .44 74% .33
Jan
2		 Rutgers A+ A+ F A+ A+ 48% 24% 29% B- A+ A+ F C+ D A+ A A+ C- C F A+ B- 33% 29% 38% C- B- F B+ D- D B- D C+
1.29 75% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 50% 0.7 .35 19% .46 83% .38 1.18 56% 50% 22% -4 -1 0.92 47% 1.0 .47 13% .31 76% .24
Jan
5		 Nebraska B- D+ A+ A- A 30% 26% 44% B- A F F F A+ C F+ C- A- C- F A+ A 35% 14% 51% C+ A B A+ A A D F+ F+
1.01 56% 50% 38% +5 -1 1.09 12% 0.5 .06 12% .22 62% .13 1.06 67% 57% 27% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 18% .30 82% .25
Jan
8		 Oregon A- A+ F F C+ 40% 24% 36% B- C+ A+ B A+ D A+ B- A+ A A+ D+ A+ A+ 28% 18% 54% B+ A+ C+ B+ B F D+ D D+
1.15 71% 30% 27% -1 0 1.00 43% 1.0 .43 19% .45 78% .35 0.99 36% 44% 22% -15 0 0.72 35% 1.0 .35 11% .36 75% .27
Jan
11		 Washington A A+ D+ D+ B+ 33% 29% 38% C B A+ F B D+ C+ A+ A- D+ D+ F+ C+ C- 28% 36% 36% A C A D B F+ F D- F
1.15 71% 33% 30% +1 -1 1.00 46% 0.7 .32 17% .28 87% .24 1.26 64% 50% 33% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.2 .35 11% .40 83% .33
Jan
17		 UCLA A+ A+ A D+ A+ 23% 34% 43% F A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C D B- F C+ 17% 47% 36% A+ B D+ A B F C+ D+ C
1.38 82% 50% 30% +7 -3 1.11 48% 1.4 .68 16% .48 84% .40 1.18 67% 36% 42% +5 -5 1.02 36% 0.9 .33 8% .33 79% .26
Jan
20		 Minnesota B+ A+ A D- A- 33% 28% 39% C- B+ A A A+ A B C+ B B F+ A+ B- B+ 29% 27% 45% A+ A- A C+ A- D- D F F
1.17 72% 47% 29% +4 -1 1.07 37% 1.1 .40 14% .30 72% .22 1.05 71% 23% 32% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.0 .24 13% .41 80% .33
Jan
23		 Michigan B C A+ F B+ 24% 34% 42% D+ B A B+ A D+ D D- D- A- D F A+ A+ 47% 5% 49% C- A+ D- F F A+ F A+ D+
0.95 50% 47% 24% -5 -3 0.86 33% 1.1 .36 20% .17 67% .12 1.14 70% 50% 19% -5 +3 0.98 44% 1.9 .85 22% .49 60% .29
Jan
26		 Penn St. B+ A+ A+ C A+ 27% 33% 41% F A F F F A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ F F+ D 25% 23% 52% A+ C- F+ F F A+ F F F
1.23 77% 69% 35% +16 -2 1.29 19% 1.0 .19 13% .35 76% .27 1.14 45% 60% 39% +6 -1 1.11 36% 1.6 .56 26% .42 86% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Wisconsin A D- A- C- B- 25% 27% 47% D C+ A B- A- A+ B- A+ A- D D F C+ D+ 47% 11% 42% D D+ A F+ B- F C+ F D
1.17 47% 50% 32% -1 -2 0.97 33% 1.1 .36 10% .28 89% .25 1.31 67% 67% 33% +7 +2 1.19 23% 1.3 .30 7% .32 90% .29
Feb
5		 Maryland A+ B+ A+ C- A 41% 29% 29% D A- B+ A+ A+ A A+ F A+ A- F F B- D- 24% 20% 56% B+ D D- C D+ A+ B- A+ A+
1.33 65% 58% 33% +8 -1 1.17 35% 1.8 .62 13% .56 60% .34 1.01 70% 50% 30% +2 -1 1.05 39% 1.1 .43 26% .33 53% .18
Feb
8		 Michigan C D- B+ C A- 25% 35% 40% D+ B+ C C+ C+ C+ A- A+ A+ C B B F C 44% 22% 35% A+ B- D- A+ A+ D- A+ F A+
0.92 42% 41% 32% -4 -3 0.88 25% 1.0 .25 18% .30 88% .26 1.24 58% 33% 47% +6 0 1.15 44% 0.8 .36 12% .12 86% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.2 3.5 5th
6th 0.9 5.7 1.9 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.2 6.3 7.0 0.3 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 2.4 12.3 2.5 0.0 17.2 8th
9th 0.4 10.3 7.7 0.2 18.6 9th
10th 0.2 5.0 11.1 1.4 17.6 10th
11th 0.1 2.4 8.3 3.2 0.0 14.0 11th
12th 0.6 2.8 2.3 0.1 5.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.8 5.4 16.1 27.1 28.6 16.2 5.2 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.7% 97.9% 0.7% 97.1% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.8%
13-7 5.2% 96.0% 1.5% 94.6% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 96.0%
12-8 16.2% 85.5% 0.9% 84.7% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 3.9 3.6 2.0 0.0 2.3 85.4%
11-9 28.6% 67.2% 0.4% 66.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.2 6.4 6.5 0.1 9.4 67.1%
10-10 27.1% 43.9% 0.6% 43.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 6.5 0.2 15.2 43.5%
9-11 16.1% 17.0% 0.2% 16.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 0.2 13.4 16.8%
8-12 5.4% 3.6% 0.1% 3.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 3.6%
7-13 0.8% 0.8
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 53.5% 0.6% 53.0% 9.6 46.5 53.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%