Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.4 #8
Expected Predictive Rating +20.0 #14
Pace 63.7 #313
Improvement -3.7 #322

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #1 A+ A- A D+ D+
Defense #30 B B C+ A+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #243 1.46 #2 +4.2 #49
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #97 0.91 #29 +3.4 #37
Three Pointers 39% #216 1.20 #10 +2.7 #95
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #2 +10.3 #2
Freethrows 0.27 #288 74% #139 0.20 #267
Second Chance 36.9% #29 1.20 #32 0.44 #18
Turnovers 12.3% #6
Total Offense +13.7 #1

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% #360 1.15 #163 +7.2 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #29 0.75 #168 -2.5 #343
Three Pointers 47% #43 0.91 #53 -0.3 #191
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #53 +4.5 #53
Freethrows 0.17 #1 66% #6 0.11 #1
Second Chance 23.4% #10 1.10 #266 0.26 #43
Turnovers 17.2% #126
Total Defense +6.8 #30

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #276 -3.4% #10
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 21.8% #1 -5.5% #75
Possession Length 17.1 #147 19.1 #356
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #133 0.10 #13
Improvement -1.3 #252 -2.4 #310

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.4%
#1 Seed 10.7% 11.6% 3.5%
Top 2 Seed 33.7% 35.9% 16.6%
Top 4 Seed 84.0% 85.9% 69.8%
Top 6 Seed 98.8% 99.1% 96.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.2 3.1 3.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.6%
Conference Champion 3.6% 4.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.7% 96.1% 92.4%
Sweet Sixteen65.9% 67.0% 57.7%
Elite Eight36.1% 37.2% 27.1%
Final Four18.3% 18.9% 13.5%
Championship Game9.0% 9.4% 6.3%
National Champion4.3% 4.5% 2.6%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 67 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 110 - 8
Quad 26 - 017 - 8
Quad 36 - 023 - 8
Quad 42 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 267 Evansville W 82 - 51 99% +18  1 - 0 +22 +18 A+ B A+ +8 A+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 7 135 Oakland W 87 - 77 97% +3  2 - 0 +9 +9 B- D+ A+ -1 B- C- C
 Thu, Nov 13 16 @Alabama W 87 - 80 48% +2  3 - 0 +28 +23 A+ A+ C+ +5 B A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 62 Akron W 97 - 79 91% +12  4 - 0 +24 +20 B+ A+ C +3 A+ D+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 100 Memphis W 80 - 71 92% +1  5 - 0 +14 +17 A+ D+ A- -2 B C- D+
 Fri, Nov 21 15 Texas Tech W 86 - 56 59% +17  6 - 0 +48 +25 A+ A- C+ +25 A+ A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 312 Eastern Illinois W 109 - 62 99% +25  7 - 0 +35 +32 A+ A+ B+ +2 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 119 @Rutgers W 81 - 65 91% +12  8 - 0 1 - 0 +22 +17 B B+ A- +6 D A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 9 Iowa St. L 58 - 81 62% -9  8 - 1 -6 -1 D B+ C+ -6 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 10 72 Minnesota W 85 - 57 92% +15  9 - 1 2 - 0 +33 +22 A+ A+ A +13 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 93 Marquette W 79 - 59 94% +16  10 - 1 +23 +14 A+ A+ D+ +10 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 25 Auburn W 88 - 60 68% +13  11 - 1 +44 +26 A+ A+ B- +19 A+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 143 Kent St. W 101 - 60 97% +24  12 - 1 +39 +18 A+ C A +18 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 39 @Wisconsin W 89 - 73 66% +8  13 - 1 3 - 0 +32 +21 B- A+ A+ +11 A+ C- B+
 Wed, Jan 7 46 Washington W 81 - 73 87% +14  14 - 1 4 - 0 +16 +11 A+ A+ F+ +5 C+ A A-
 Sat, Jan 10 110 Penn St. W 93 - 85 96% +5  15 - 1 5 - 0 +9 +23 A A- A+ -14 F D- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 23 Iowa W 79 - 72 76% -1  16 - 1 6 - 0 +20 +20 A+ C A+ +0 D C+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 44 @USC W 69 - 64 71% -2  17 - 1 7 - 0 +20 +5 C+ C- A+ +15 A+ F B
 Tue, Jan 20 34 @UCLA L 67 - 69 63% +2  17 - 2 7 - 1 +15 +15 C+ A+ A+ -1 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 6 Illinois L 82 - 88 60% +3  17 - 3 7 - 2 +12 +23 A+ F A+ -12 D F B-
 Tue, Jan 27 31 @Indiana L 67 - 72 61% -5  17 - 4 7 - 3 +13 +10 A+ B C+ +2 B- C C-
 Sun, Feb 1 106 @Maryland W 81 - 68 89%
 Sat, Feb 7 79 Oregon W 81 - 65 94%
 Tue, Feb 10 13 @Nebraska L 73 - 75 44%
 Sat, Feb 14 23 @Iowa W 71 - 70 56%
 Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 78 - 79 45%
 Fri, Feb 20 31 Indiana W 80 - 71 80%
 Thu, Feb 26 7 Michigan St. W 72 - 69 60%
 Sun, Mar 1 35 @Ohio St. W 78 - 75 62%
 Wed, Mar 4 61 @Northwestern W 78 - 70 79%
 Sat, Mar 7 39 Wisconsin W 83 - 73 83%
Totals 24 - 7 14 - 6 +20 +14 A+ A- A +7 B B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 1.9 3.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 5.4 0.8 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 8.0 4.1 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 9.6 9.5 0.6 21.3 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 11.5 13.2 2.1 0.0 28.9 5th
6th 0.5 4.8 6.1 1.0 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.7 1.0 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.6 11.4 20.3 25.6 22.0 11.7 2.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 66.5% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0
16-4 13.7% 1.6    0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.0
15-5 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.8% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.4 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.7% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 1.9 4.1 5.3 2.0 0.2 100.0%
15-5 22.0% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 2.4 3.3 8.9 7.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 25.6% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 3.0 1.2 5.9 10.6 6.6 1.3 0.1 100.0%
13-7 20.3% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 3.7 0.2 1.8 6.6 7.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-8 11.4% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 4.4 0.2 1.7 4.0 4.0 1.4 0.1 100.0%
11-9 4.6% 99.9% 4.5% 95.4% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 1.3% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.2% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.2 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 86.1 13.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.4 63.0 34.8 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.5 54.8 36.3 8.3 0.6