Washington
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.4 #46
Expected Predictive Rating +9.4 #63
Pace 68.8 #180
Improvement +3.1 #54

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #54 C+ B+ B C+ D
Defense #55 B+ B C- B A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.25 #82 +0.6 #152
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #47 0.86 #51 +4.4 #21
Three Pointers 35% #309 1.03 #173 -2.8 #283
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #115 +2.3 #114
Freethrows 0.31 #168 77% #24 0.24 #113
Second Chance 35.3% #55 1.17 #39 0.41 #36
Turnovers 14.3% #56
Total Offense +6.3 #54

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #339 1.11 #117 +5.2 #38
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #10 0.72 #110 -2.9 #351
Three Pointers 40% #224 0.89 #32 +3.3 #56
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #34 +5.6 #34
Freethrows 0.26 #62 70% #85 0.18 #57
Second Chance 27.0% #62 0.93 #47 0.25 #36
Turnovers 15.8% #217
Total Defense +5.1 #55

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #312 -3.4% #12
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.8% #73 -7.9% #49
Possession Length 16.6 #104 18.3 #309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #102 0.10 #11
Improvement +2.6 #56 +0.5 #162

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 47.0% 21.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.2% 46.7% 21.0%
Average Seed 9.9 9.4 10.1
.500 or above 81.6% 93.8% 79.9%
.500 or above in Conference 38.3% 64.6% 34.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four10.1% 12.2% 9.8%
First Round19.5% 41.4% 16.3%
Second Round8.3% 19.8% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 4.2% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 12.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 26 - 48 - 14
Quad 34 - 113 - 15
Quad 45 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94 - 50 98% +21  1 - 0 +31 +10 B- A D- +18 A+ A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 284 Denver W 84 - 70 97% +8  2 - 0 +4 +0 C- C+ C +4 C- A+ A-
 Sun, Nov 9 48 @Baylor L 69 - 78 40% -4  2 - 1 +5 -1 C- D+ D +6 C+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 14 131 @Washington St. W 81 - 69 74% +10  3 - 1 +17 +19 B+ B A- -0 A D+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 260 Southern W 99 - 93 2OT 96% -3  4 - 1 -2 -0 F+ B C+ -4 C+ F+ B-
 Thu, Nov 27 74 Nevada W 83 - 66 64% +7  5 - 1 +25 +11 A C D- +13 A+ B+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 80 Colorado L 68 - 81 66% -9  5 - 2 -6 -2 F A+ A+ -4 B- D+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 34 UCLA L 80 - 82 51% -3  5 - 3 0 - 1 +9 +18 A+ A+ F+ -9 F F+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 44 @USC W 84 - 76 37% -8  6 - 3 1 - 1 +23 +16 C+ A+ C+ +7 A+ A F
 Sat, Dec 13 282 Southern Utah W 105 - 69 97% +18  7 - 3 +26 +26 A+ B A+ -1 D A+ F+
 Fri, Dec 19 124 @Seattle L 66 - 70 73% +2  7 - 4 +1 -4 D F C +5 B+ A C+
 Mon, Dec 22 208 San Diego W 86 - 56 94% +16  8 - 4 +24 +5 D- A+ B+ +18 A A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 104 Utah W 74 - 65 82% +3  9 - 4 +11 +1 C+ D C +10 A+ D B+
 Sun, Jan 4 31 @Indiana L 80 - 90 28% -7  9 - 5 1 - 2 +8 +22 B A+ A+ -15 C- D- F
 Wed, Jan 7 8 @Purdue L 73 - 81 13% -14  9 - 6 1 - 3 +15 +8 B C+ C- +8 C+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 35 Ohio St. W 81 - 74 52% +0  10 - 6 2 - 3 +18 +18 A- B- A+ +0 A+ B- B-
 Wed, Jan 14 1 Michigan L 72 - 82 17% -8  10 - 7 2 - 4 +12 +10 C+ A+ C+ +2 A+ D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 7 Michigan St. L 63 - 80 28% -8  10 - 8 2 - 5 +1 +5 B+ B C- -5 B- B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 13 @Nebraska L 66 - 76 16% -10  10 - 9 2 - 6 +12 +10 B B+ A+ +1 C A+ C
 Sun, Jan 25 79 Oregon W 72 - 57 75% +12  11 - 9 3 - 6 +19 +8 A- C- C- +13 A+ A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 6 @Illinois L 71 - 83 12%
 Sat, Jan 31 61 @Northwestern L 73 - 74 48%
 Wed, Feb 4 23 Iowa L 70 - 72 44%
 Sat, Feb 7 34 @UCLA L 69 - 75 30%
 Wed, Feb 11 110 Penn St. W 83 - 72 85%
 Sat, Feb 14 72 Minnesota W 73 - 66 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 106 @Maryland W 77 - 73 64%
 Tue, Feb 24 119 @Rutgers W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 39 Wisconsin W 79 - 78 55%
 Wed, Mar 4 44 USC W 78 - 75 60%
 Sat, Mar 7 79 @Oregon W 74 - 73 54%
Totals 17 - 14 9 - 11 +11 +6 C+ B+ B +5 B+ B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.5 3.1 2.1 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 4.9 0.8 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.8 7.9 2.7 0.1 12.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 8.3 6.6 0.5 16.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 7.4 9.5 1.8 0.0 19.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 5.8 9.1 2.8 0.1 18.4 12th
13th 0.3 3.2 4.6 1.7 0.1 9.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.5 11.8 19.5 22.6 19.9 11.8 5.2 1.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.3% 95.2% 95.2% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.2%
12-8 5.2% 86.7% 0.7% 86.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.7 86.6%
11-9 11.8% 64.6% 0.3% 64.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.0 2.0 0.0 4.2 64.5%
10-10 19.9% 38.1% 0.3% 37.8% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 4.5 0.0 12.3 37.9%
9-11 22.6% 13.0% 0.1% 12.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.4 0.2 19.6 12.9%
8-12 19.5% 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 19.1 1.8%
7-13 11.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 11.8 0.1%
6-14 5.5% 5.5
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.4% 0.2% 24.2% 9.9 75.6 24.2%