UCLA
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.0 #34
Expected Predictive Rating +14.3 #37
Pace 63.4 #318
Improvement +1.8 #97

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #40 B B B B D-
Defense #39 B C+ B+ C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #297 1.31 #41 +0.1 #173
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #34 0.79 #126 +3.9 #28
Three Pointers 36% #281 1.17 #20 +0.3 #162
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #62 +4.3 #62
Freethrows 0.34 #73 75% #81 0.26 #56
Second Chance 33.1% #108 1.16 #47 0.38 #62
Turnovers 14.1% #44
Total Offense +7.7 #40

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 1.17 #195 +4.2 #52
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #156 0.76 #173 -0.2 #202
Three Pointers 48% #26 0.86 #20 +0.4 #164
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #55 +4.3 #55
Freethrows 0.28 #124 75% #315 0.21 #156
Second Chance 29.6% #139 0.97 #84 0.29 #104
Turnovers 19.9% #27
Total Defense +6.3 #39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #332 -1.2% #80
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.7% #26 -7.3% #56
Possession Length 17.2 #155 19.3 #362
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #137 0.14 #67
Improvement +0.3 #165 +1.6 #88

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 1.8% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 12.2% 16.2% 6.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.8% 87.0% 74.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.5% 86.8% 74.0%
Average Seed 8.3 8.0 8.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 98.6% 90.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.0% 6.7% 12.3%
First Round77.7% 84.0% 68.6%
Second Round41.3% 46.0% 34.5%
Sweet Sixteen10.7% 12.4% 8.2%
Elite Eight3.6% 4.2% 2.6%
Final Four1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Home) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 10
Quad 25 - 210 - 12
Quad 34 - 014 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 241 Eastern Washington W 80 - 74 97% +7  1 - 0 -1 +1 C D+ A+ -3 F A A-
 Fri, Nov 7 281 Pepperdine W 74 - 63 98% +10  2 - 0 +1 +7 C A- C -5 B F B-
 Mon, Nov 10 328 West Georgia W 83 - 62 99% +11  3 - 0 +8 +9 B- C D +0 F B A+
 Fri, Nov 14 2 Arizona L 65 - 69 17% +1  3 - 1 +20 +7 A+ D F +13 A+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 294 Sacramento St. W 79 - 48 98% +19  4 - 1 +20 -0 D+ A+ F +20 A+ A- B
 Fri, Nov 21 269 Presbyterian W 86 - 46 97% +24  5 - 1 +31 +13 A+ A+ C- +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 69 California L 72 - 80 71% -2  5 - 2 +0 +4 C- A- C+ -3 D+ A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 46 @Washington W 82 - 80 49% +3  6 - 2 1 - 0 +16 +22 A+ A+ A -5 D+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 79 Oregon W 74 - 63 82% +8  7 - 2 2 - 0 +15 +15 B A- C+ +2 A+ F+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 11 Gonzaga L 72 - 82 29% -2  7 - 3 +10 +13 A+ C A+ -4 D+ A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 77 Arizona St. W 90 - 77 82% +9  8 - 3 +18 +16 A- C- A+ +1 A+ C- C
 Fri, Dec 19 289 Cal Poly W 108 - 87 98% +7  9 - 3 +11 +18 A+ D+ A -10 F C A+
 Tue, Dec 23 292 UC Riverside W 97 - 65 98% +14  10 - 3 +22 +10 C- A+ B- +9 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 23 @Iowa L 61 - 74 31% -10  10 - 4 2 - 1 +6 +6 C+ F+ B+ -2 D- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 39 @Wisconsin L 72 - 80 42% -12  10 - 5 2 - 2 +8 +4 C B B- +4 B D C-
 Sat, Jan 10 106 Maryland W 67 - 55 88% +9  11 - 5 3 - 2 +13 -0 F+ C A+ +14 A+ F A
 Wed, Jan 14 110 @Penn St. W 71 - 60 76% +3  12 - 5 4 - 2 +18 +11 F A+ F +9 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 35 @Ohio St. L 74 - 86 39% -9  12 - 6 4 - 3 +5 +16 B B- A+ -13 B F C+
 Tue, Jan 20 8 Purdue W 69 - 67 37% -2  13 - 6 5 - 3 +19 +15 A+ F C +5 A+ D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 61 Northwestern W 71 - 64 78% +9  14 - 6 6 - 3 +13 +6 A- C+ B +7 A- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 79 @Oregon W 73 - 57 64% +11  15 - 6 7 - 3 +26 +15 D- A+ A+ +13 B+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 31 Indiana W 74 - 72 59%
 Tue, Feb 3 119 Rutgers W 77 - 63 91%
 Sat, Feb 7 46 Washington W 75 - 69 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 1 @Michigan L 69 - 83 10%
 Tue, Feb 17 7 @Michigan St. L 63 - 73 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 6 Illinois L 72 - 76 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 44 USC W 76 - 71 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 72 @Minnesota W 68 - 65 62%
 Tue, Mar 3 13 Nebraska L 70 - 72 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 44 @USC L 73 - 74 48%
Totals 20 - 11 12 - 8 +14 +8 B B B +6 B C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.2 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.5 1.6 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 7.3 5.5 0.4 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 10.4 10.6 2.0 0.0 24.6 6th
7th 0.6 7.1 10.0 2.1 0.0 19.8 7th
8th 0.0 2.6 8.2 2.4 0.1 13.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 4.7 2.9 0.1 8.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 2.6 0.2 4.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.9 3.9 11.2 20.2 24.4 21.1 12.8 4.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 76.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 22.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.9% 100.0% 6.4% 93.6% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-5 4.6% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 5.9 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.8% 99.1% 1.7% 97.4% 6.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.2 4.3 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 99.1%
13-7 21.1% 97.5% 1.2% 96.3% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 5.2 6.6 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.5 97.5%
12-8 24.4% 89.6% 0.8% 88.8% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.6 6.7 4.9 1.4 2.5 89.5%
11-9 20.2% 73.8% 0.5% 73.2% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.1 5.0 3.1 0.0 5.3 73.6%
10-10 11.2% 48.7% 0.5% 48.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.1 0.1 5.7 48.5%
9-11 3.9% 18.6% 18.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 3.2 18.6%
8-12 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.8 1.8%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 81.8% 1.1% 80.6% 8.3 18.3 81.5%