USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.7 #44
Expected Predictive Rating +14.4 #36
Pace 73.4 #63
Improvement -1.7 #264

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #70 B B- C A+ C
Defense #35 B B C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.30 #52 +4.9 #38
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #109 0.83 #83 +2.1 #74
Three Pointers 34% #314 1.06 #114 -2.7 #277
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #63 +4.3 #64
Freethrows 0.42 #1 73% #178 0.30 #3
Second Chance 34.6% #70 1.04 #185 0.36 #92
Turnovers 16.2% #161
Total Offense +5.1 #70

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #239 1.03 #42 +3.4 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #128 0.83 #297 -1.4 #294
Three Pointers 41% #170 0.89 #34 +2.5 #93
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #51 +4.5 #52
Freethrows 0.29 #166 75% #322 0.22 #195
Second Chance 28.4% #100 0.89 #25 0.25 #38
Turnovers 17.5% #106
Total Defense +6.6 #35

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #215 -0.6% #116
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.8% #58 -8.3% #44
Possession Length 16.1 #59 18.0 #281
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #130 0.16 #158
Improvement -3.7 #345 +2.0 #61

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.3% 3.6% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.3% 64.8% 45.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.3% 64.7% 45.0%
Average Seed 9.2 9.1 9.6
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 37.5% 40.9% 14.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.7% 14.7% 15.0%
First Round54.7% 57.2% 36.7%
Second Round23.1% 24.4% 14.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.5% 4.8% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.2% 1.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Home) - 87.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 9
Quad 26 - 311 - 11
Quad 36 - 116 - 12
Quad 43 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 289 Cal Poly W 94 - 64 97% +12  1 - 0 +20 +1 C D+ D+ +14 B+ B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 326 Manhattan W 114 - 83 98% +16  2 - 0 +18 +16 D+ A+ C+ -3 C- A- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 88 Illinois St. W 87 - 67 69% +12  3 - 0 +26 +20 A A- A+ +7 A+ C C+
 Thu, Nov 20 113 Troy W 107 - 106 3OT 85% +2  4 - 0 +1 +1 C- F A- +0 B+ F+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 58 Boise St. W 70 - 67 59% +2  5 - 0 +12 +3 B C- D +10 A B- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 53 Seton Hall W 83 - 81 56% -2  6 - 0 +12 +21 A+ A C- -8 F A+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 77 Arizona St. W 88 - 75 66% +4  7 - 0 +21 +22 A+ A+ C -1 C A+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 79 @Oregon W 82 - 77 56% -1  8 - 0 1 - 0 +15 +16 A+ B+ F -1 D C+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 46 Washington L 76 - 84 63% +8  8 - 1 1 - 1 +0 +4 D+ C A+ -3 B D B
 Tue, Dec 9 208 @San Diego W 94 - 81 86% +5  9 - 1 +13 +10 A+ C F +1 B C C+
 Sun, Dec 14 131 Washington St. W 68 - 61 88% +6  10 - 1 +6 -8 F+ D- D+ +13 A A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 341 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 70 98% +10  11 - 1 +12 +12 A+ B- C -2 B F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 66 - 96 8% -16  11 - 2 1 - 2 -2 -3 C C F +5 B+ A+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 7 @Michigan St. L 51 - 80 13% -14  11 - 3 1 - 3 -5 -8 D- C+ F +3 D- A+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 72 @Minnesota W 70 - 69 OT 53% +3  12 - 3 2 - 3 +12 +8 A D- F +4 B C+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 106 Maryland W 88 - 71 83% +4  13 - 3 3 - 3 +18 +19 B+ C+ A+ -0 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 8 Purdue L 64 - 69 29% +2  13 - 4 3 - 4 +12 -3 D A+ D+ +15 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 61 Northwestern L 68 - 74 71% -1  13 - 5 3 - 5 -0 -0 D C- A+ +0 A A D-
 Sun, Jan 25 39 @Wisconsin W 73 - 71 33% +1  14 - 5 4 - 5 +18 +13 C- B+ A+ +5 A+ D+ D-
 Wed, Jan 28 23 @Iowa L 72 - 73 24% -1  14 - 6 4 - 6 +18 +11 A B- C +7 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 119 Rutgers W 80 - 68 87%
 Tue, Feb 3 31 Indiana W 78 - 77 51%
 Sun, Feb 8 110 @Penn St. W 81 - 76 68%
 Wed, Feb 11 35 @Ohio St. L 75 - 80 31%
 Wed, Feb 18 6 Illinois L 75 - 81 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 79 Oregon W 78 - 71 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 34 @UCLA L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 13 Nebraska L 73 - 77 34%
 Wed, Mar 4 46 @Washington L 75 - 78 40%
 Sat, Mar 7 34 UCLA W 74 - 73 52%
Totals 19 - 11 9 - 11 +12 +5 B B- C +7 B B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.5 3.1 1.8 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.9 5.3 0.7 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 7.7 2.5 0.1 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 8.4 6.7 0.4 16.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 7.3 9.9 1.6 0.0 20.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 6.5 10.4 3.3 0.1 21.3 12th
13th 0.3 2.7 4.1 1.6 0.1 8.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.0 12.0 20.7 23.5 19.6 12.1 4.5 1.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.3% 100.0% 0.4% 99.6% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
12-8 4.5% 99.7% 0.8% 98.9% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-9 12.1% 97.5% 0.4% 97.1% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.3 97.5%
10-10 19.6% 90.9% 0.3% 90.6% 9.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.3 6.1 5.0 1.0 1.8 90.9%
9-11 23.5% 72.6% 0.2% 72.4% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 7.1 5.7 0.0 6.4 72.5%
8-12 20.7% 40.0% 0.1% 39.9% 10.7 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.8 0.2 12.4 40.0%
7-13 12.0% 12.6% 12.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.1 10.5 12.6%
6-14 5.0% 1.6% 1.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 1.6%
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 62.3% 0.2% 62.1% 9.2 37.7 62.3%