USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#37
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#18
Pace74.3#56
Improvement-3.4#349

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#44
First Shot+6.7#28
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks+1.3#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#195
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#228
Freethrows+7.2#1
Improvement-2.9#351

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#42
First Shot+4.1#52
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#92
Layups/Dunks+0.0#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#73
Freethrows+1.5#90
Improvement-0.5#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 7.3% 7.4% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 26.2% 26.5% 11.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.1% 76.4% 59.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.9% 76.2% 58.9%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 8.2
.500 or above 98.5% 98.6% 92.9%
.500 or above in Conference 56.6% 56.8% 43.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 1.4%
First Four7.1% 7.1% 7.2%
First Round72.3% 72.6% 55.7%
Second Round41.0% 41.2% 27.5%
Sweet Sixteen12.7% 12.8% 7.2%
Elite Eight3.9% 3.9% 2.4%
Final Four1.2% 1.2% 0.7%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 11
Quad 34 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 250 Cal Poly W 94-64 96%     1 - 0 +21.9 +2.4 +14.8
  Sun, Nov 9 320 Manhattan W 114-83 98%     2 - 0 +18.6 +15.1 -1.1
  Fri, Nov 14 90 Illinois St. W 87-67 74%     3 - 0 +25.8 +17.4 +8.7
  Thu, Nov 20 143 Troy W 107-106 3OT 90%     4 - 0 -0.9 +0.5 -1.7
  Mon, Nov 24 47 Boise St. W 70-67 55%     5 - 0 +14.1 +4.8 +9.3
  Tue, Nov 25 56 Seton Hall W 83-81 61%     6 - 0 +11.5 +17.9 -6.4
  Wed, Nov 26 61 Arizona St. W 88-75 62%     7 - 0 +22.1 +23.5 -0.6
  Tue, Dec 2 66 @Oregon W 82-77 54%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +16.3 +15.6 +0.8
  Sat, Dec 6 50 Washington L 76-84 67%     8 - 1 1 - 1 -0.1 +2.5 -2.2
  Tue, Dec 9 248 @San Diego W 94-81 90%     9 - 1 +11.1 +8.9 +0.8
  Sun, Dec 14 155 Washington St. W 68-61 91%     10 - 1 +4.2 -7.5 +11.7
  Wed, Dec 17 286 Texas San Antonio W 88-66 98%    
  Sun, Dec 21 218 Brown W 80-61 96%    
  Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 72-90 5%    
  Mon, Jan 5 12 @Michigan St. L 69-78 21%    
  Fri, Jan 9 96 @Minnesota W 74-70 65%    
  Tue, Jan 13 94 Maryland W 84-74 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 7 Purdue L 74-79 32%    
  Wed, Jan 21 58 Northwestern W 81-75 71%    
  Sun, Jan 25 40 @Wisconsin L 80-82 41%    
  Wed, Jan 28 20 @Iowa L 70-76 28%    
  Sat, Jan 31 132 Rutgers W 82-68 90%    
  Tue, Feb 3 27 Indiana W 78-77 52%    
  Sun, Feb 8 103 @Penn St. W 83-78 68%    
  Wed, Feb 11 31 @Ohio St. L 78-82 35%    
  Wed, Feb 18 14 Illinois L 80-82 41%    
  Sat, Feb 21 66 Oregon W 81-74 74%    
  Tue, Feb 24 30 @UCLA L 73-77 34%    
  Sat, Feb 28 25 Nebraska W 79-78 52%    
  Wed, Mar 4 50 @Washington L 77-79 44%    
  Sat, Mar 7 30 UCLA W 76-74 56%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 4.2 1.3 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.8 2.7 0.2 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.7 0.7 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.6 1.9 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 5.4 3.6 0.4 10.8 10th
11th 0.6 4.0 4.5 0.8 0.0 10.0 11th
12th 0.2 2.4 4.4 1.4 0.1 8.4 12th
13th 0.0 1.1 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.4 14th
15th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.5 4.8 8.3 11.8 14.8 15.6 14.4 11.1 7.9 4.5 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 45.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 15.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.9% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 3.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.0% 100.0% 5.1% 94.9% 3.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.5% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 7.9% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 5.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.6 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 11.1% 99.8% 1.2% 98.6% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.9 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.8%
11-9 14.4% 98.4% 0.8% 97.6% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.6 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.4%
10-10 15.6% 95.0% 0.4% 94.6% 8.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 4.6 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.8 95.0%
9-11 14.8% 82.5% 0.2% 82.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.8 4.2 1.7 0.0 2.6 82.4%
8-12 11.8% 53.9% 0.0% 53.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.7 0.1 5.4 53.9%
7-13 8.3% 21.4% 0.1% 21.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.1 6.6 21.3%
6-14 4.8% 3.9% 3.9% 11.2 0.1 0.0 4.6 3.9%
5-15 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 2.5 0.1%
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 76.1% 0.9% 75.2% 7.4 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.4 7.7 11.2 12.3 11.5 10.7 9.1 6.0 0.3 23.9 75.9%