TCU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.5 #45
Expected Predictive Rating +11.0 #53
Pace 69.7 #159
Improvement +0.7 #154

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #82 B- B- B- C+ C+
Defense #25 B- B A- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #62 1.27 #72 +5.2 #29
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #194 0.72 #226 -0.6 #211
Three Pointers 37% #268 1.06 #117 -1.3 #227
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #85 +3.2 #85
Freethrows 0.33 #102 71% #221 0.24 #122
Second Chance 32.9% #111 1.15 #58 0.38 #64
Turnovers 15.0% #97
Total Offense +4.1 #82

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #178 0.98 #16 +3.3 #77
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #114 0.80 #251 -1.1 #269
Three Pointers 39% #244 1.01 #167 +1.3 #133
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #67 +3.5 #67
Freethrows 0.27 #92 70% #77 0.19 #78
Second Chance 26.8% #57 0.99 #106 0.27 #58
Turnovers 20.4% #19
Total Defense +7.4 #25

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #131 -0.3% #135
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.4% #88 -6.4% #67
Possession Length 16.0 #51 18.1 #299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #16 0.12 #36
Improvement +1.4 #112 -0.8 #237

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.7% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.3% 60.0% 36.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.2% 59.8% 36.4%
Average Seed 9.4 9.3 9.8
.500 or above 96.1% 98.9% 92.6%
.500 or above in Conference 45.9% 60.1% 28.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four12.3% 11.9% 12.8%
First Round43.1% 53.9% 30.1%
Second Round18.2% 23.2% 12.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 4.4% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 9
Quad 25 - 310 - 12
Quad 32 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 220 New Orleans L 74 - 78 94% -12  0 - 1 -11 -10 F B B- -0 D+ D- A+
 Thu, Nov 6 354 St. Francis (PA) W 104 - 63 99% +23  1 - 1 +24 +14 B- A+ D+ +7 C A B
 Mon, Nov 10 205 Lamar W 78 - 65 94% +2  2 - 1 +7 +10 B A+ D -2 D+ B+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 1 Michigan L 63 - 67 17% +2  2 - 2 +18 +2 B D- B +16 A+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 355 UMKC W 81 - 45 99% +22  3 - 2 +19 +1 F+ A- D +18 A+ B- A+
 Thu, Nov 27 5 Florida W 84 - 80 18% -2  4 - 2 +25 +15 B+ A+ A- +10 A+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 28 39 Wisconsin W 74 - 63 43% +11  5 - 2 +24 +2 A- F+ D+ +21 A+ A- A+
 Fri, Dec 5 81 Notre Dame L 85 - 87 OT 76% +2  5 - 3 +2 +9 A+ B- A- -7 F A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 144 @North Texas W 65 - 55 76% +2  6 - 3 +14 +3 C- A F+ +12 B B+ B+
 Mon, Dec 15 240 Incarnate Word W 69 - 65 95% -4  7 - 3 -3 -1 F B+ A- -2 D- B+ A
 Thu, Dec 18 331 Oral Roberts W 72 - 53 98% +15  8 - 3 +5 +5 D+ A+ B- +4 D A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 315 Florida A&M W 80 - 56 98% +5  9 - 3 +12 +9 C B- C+ +4 D+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 337 Jackson St. W 115 - 64 98% +24  10 - 3 +37 +29 A+ D+ A +5 C+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 3 48 Baylor W 69 - 63 63% +7  11 - 3 1 - 0 +14 +4 D+ B- C- +11 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Jan 6 17 @Kansas L 100 - 104 OT 19% +4  11 - 4 1 - 1 +17 +20 A+ A+ F -2 C B B-
 Sat, Jan 10 2 Arizona L 73 - 86 18% -12  11 - 5 1 - 2 +8 +7 C+ A- B- +2 B B- C
 Wed, Jan 14 14 @BYU L 70 - 76 17% +0  11 - 6 1 - 3 +16 +7 B- C- A +9 A+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 104 @Utah L 79 - 82 64% -6  11 - 7 1 - 4 +5 +9 B+ F+ B+ -4 C- D+ A-
 Tue, Jan 20 63 Oklahoma St. W 68 - 65 71% -1  12 - 7 2 - 4 +9 -2 C+ C D +11 A C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 48 @Baylor W 97 - 90 40% +4  13 - 7 3 - 4 +21 +17 B+ C- B- +3 D- B- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 4 Houston L 70 - 79 25% -7  13 - 8 3 - 5 +9 +6 A F+ A+ +3 D+ A+ B+
 Sun, Feb 1 80 @Colorado W 77 - 76 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 87 Kansas St. W 81 - 73 77%
 Tue, Feb 10 9 Iowa St. L 70 - 76 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 63 @Oklahoma St. L 79 - 80 48%
 Tue, Feb 17 49 @Central Florida L 76 - 78 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 57 West Virginia W 69 - 64 67%
 Tue, Feb 24 77 Arizona St. W 80 - 73 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 87 @Kansas St. W 78 - 76 56%
 Tue, Mar 3 15 @Texas Tech L 70 - 80 19%
 Sat, Mar 7 52 Cincinnati W 71 - 67 65%
Totals 18 - 13 8 - 10 +12 +4 B- B- B- +7 B- B A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.7 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.0 0.2 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.9 7.4 1.2 0.0 15.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 7.4 11.2 3.0 0.1 22.6 8th
9th 0.4 5.9 11.5 4.0 0.2 21.8 9th
10th 0.0 2.3 7.6 3.1 0.1 13.2 10th
11th 0.3 3.8 3.0 0.1 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 12th
13th 0.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.5 9.2 17.6 23.0 22.0 14.8 7.0 1.8 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 1.8% 99.2% 0.8% 98.3% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
11-7 7.0% 94.2% 0.7% 93.5% 8.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 94.2%
10-8 14.8% 89.1% 0.5% 88.6% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.9 4.7 3.9 0.9 1.6 89.1%
9-9 22.0% 73.1% 0.5% 72.6% 9.7 0.1 1.7 4.3 7.1 3.0 0.0 5.9 73.0%
8-10 23.0% 39.9% 0.3% 39.7% 10.6 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.0 0.1 13.8 39.8%
7-11 17.6% 11.8% 0.0% 11.7% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.7 0.2 15.5 11.7%
6-12 9.2% 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 9.0 1.9%
5-13 3.5% 3.5
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 49.3% 0.3% 49.0% 9.4 50.7 49.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%