Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   19 - 1 9 - 1 +24.6      +11.5 7 +13.2 1 78.8 12 +26.6 5 +22.1 4
5 Illinois 100.0%   2   17 - 3 8 - 1 +20.8      +13.7 1 +7.1 26 67.6 220 +22.0 10 +25.9 2
6 Michigan St. 100.0%   2   19 - 2 9 - 1 +20.6      +7.6 42 +13.0 2 65.9 264 +23.1 7 +23.7 3
8 Purdue 100.0%   3   17 - 4 7 - 3 +20.4      +13.6 2 +6.8 30 63.7 314 +19.9 14 +17.3 5
13 Nebraska 100.0%   2   20 - 1 9 - 1 +19.0      +9.3 23 +9.8 9 68.4 193 +30.2 2 +29.7 1
23 Iowa 91.6%   7   14 - 5 4 - 4 +16.4      +7.9 36 +8.5 16 62.2 342 +15.2 31 +13.5 9
31 Indiana 66.2%   10   14 - 7 5 - 5 +14.5      +9.3 22 +5.3 50 68.1 201 +12.6 44 +12.7 10
35 Ohio St. 72.9%   9   14 - 6 6 - 4 +13.9      +9.4 21 +4.5 62 67.7 216 +13.1 42 +14.5 8
37 UCLA 73.2%   10   14 - 6 6 - 3 +13.4      +7.5 44 +5.9 44 63.7 315 +13.6 38 +16.4 7
38 Wisconsin 73.3%   9   14 - 6 6 - 3 +13.3      +8.6 29 +4.8 59 73.1 70 +13.6 39 +16.9 6
47 Washington 25.0%   11 - 9 3 - 6 +11.4      +6.3 52 +5.1 55 68.8 177 +9.4 64 +11.4 12
48 USC 61.3%   11   14 - 5 4 - 5 +11.3      +4.8 70 +6.4 39 73.3 66 +15.0 34 +11.5 11
61 Northwestern 1.0%   9 - 11 1 - 8 +9.0      +5.7 64 +3.3 86 65.0 286 +5.4 92 +0.9 15
72 Oregon 0.2%   8 - 12 1 - 8 +7.7      +4.1 82 +3.6 78 66.5 249 +4.1 101 +0.9 16
76 Minnesota 1.5%   10 - 10 3 - 6 +7.6      +3.4 93 +4.2 66 60.5 359 +6.2 85 +10.6 13
105 Maryland 0.0%   8 - 12 1 - 8 +4.4      +1.7 120 +2.6 101 69.7 159 +4.0 103 -0.1 17
112 Penn St. 0.0%   9 - 11 0 - 9 +3.5      +4.1 81 -0.6 189 69.0 172 +2.0 133 -1.5 18
120 Rutgers 0.0%   9 - 12 2 - 8 +2.8      +1.8 119 +1.0 134 65.7 268 +3.3 117 +5.9 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 5 Illinois 88 8 Purdue 82   
Sat, Jan 24 76 Minnesota 57 13 Nebraska 76   
Sat, Jan 24 61 Northwestern 64 37 UCLA 71   
Sat, Jan 24 105 Maryland 48 6 Michigan St. 91   
Sun, Jan 25 48 USC 73 38 Wisconsin 71   
Sun, Jan 25 72 Oregon 57 47 Washington 72   
Mon, Jan 26 35 Ohio St. 84 112 Penn St. 78   
Tue, Jan 27 1 Michigan 75 13 Nebraska 72   
Tue, Jan 27 31 Indiana 72 8 Purdue 67   
Tue, Jan 27 6 Michigan St. 88 120 Rutgers 79   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 23 Iowa 75 48 USC 67 78%   
Wed, Jan 28 72 Oregon 70 37 UCLA 72 60%   
Wed, Jan 28 76 Minnesota 68 38 Wisconsin 77 80%   
Thu, Jan 29 5 Illinois 83 47 Washington 71 87%   
Thu, Jan 29 61 Northwestern 80 112 Penn St. 71 79%   
Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan 74 6 Michigan St. 73 54%   
Sat, Jan 31 35 Ohio St. 79 38 Wisconsin 81 59%   
Sat, Jan 31 31 Indiana 73 37 UCLA 74 57%   
Sat, Jan 31 61 Northwestern 74 47 Washington 73 52%   
Sat, Jan 31 120 Rutgers 68 48 USC 80 86%   
Sun, Feb 1 5 Illinois 76 13 Nebraska 77 55%   
Sun, Feb 1 23 Iowa 72 72 Oregon 66 71%   
Sun, Feb 1 76 Minnesota 72 112 Penn St. 71 54%   
Sun, Feb 1 105 Maryland 68 8 Purdue 81 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 2.0 46.6 25.2 15.2 8.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5 31.8 23.8 21.2 15.2 5.7 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 3.0 20.6 20.4 22.1 21.0 11.2 3.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Purdue 4.5 3.2 8.2 14.0 22.6 30.4 11.9 5.4 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 2.2 36.8 28.3 18.8 10.5 4.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iowa 7.5 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.5 11.4 18.7 17.8 14.6 11.5 8.5 5.9 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Indiana 8.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 4.0 10.2 13.7 16.1 17.1 15.9 12.0 6.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.7 8.2 16.3 17.0 16.4 14.8 11.4 7.8 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
UCLA 7.2 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.5 11.5 21.1 19.9 15.4 10.3 6.9 4.5 2.3 0.6 0.1
Wisconsin 7.6 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.7 9.7 18.1 17.9 16.3 12.4 10.1 6.2 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Washington 10.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 6.5 9.5 12.3 15.6 18.5 17.3 10.2 3.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
USC 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.6 7.1 9.5 12.5 15.2 18.0 19.0 9.0 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 5.8 14.7 26.5 21.9 15.8 8.9 3.4
Oregon 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 5.3 12.4 22.4 21.2 19.4 11.1 5.3
Minnesota 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.5 6.3 11.9 21.4 30.4 13.7 5.9 2.6 0.8 0.2
Maryland 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 5.4 12.7 16.7 20.3 27.8 14.9
Penn St. 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 6.4 10.4 14.9 24.4 40.8
Rutgers 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 4.1 10.6 22.0 23.6 18.5 12.8 6.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 17 - 3 27 - 4 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.7 14.1 24.6 27.9 19.5 6.5
Illinois 16 - 4 25 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 10.5 19.6 26.3 23.3 12.1 2.8
Michigan St. 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.0 0.4 2.4 7.2 16.1 24.4 24.8 16.7 6.7 1.3
Purdue 14 - 6 24 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.6 11.7 20.5 25.4 22.3 11.2 2.7
Nebraska 16 - 4 27 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 8.2 17.5 25.7 25.2 15.7 4.6
Iowa 11 - 9 21 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.6 10.2 16.3 20.9 20.7 14.6 7.9 2.5 0.5
Indiana 10 - 10 19 - 12 0.0 0.6 3.4 9.4 19.0 24.3 22.5 13.8 5.4 1.4 0.1
Ohio St. 11 - 9 19 - 12 0.2 1.2 5.2 12.6 20.8 24.0 19.5 11.0 4.4 1.0 0.1
UCLA 12 - 8 20 - 11 0.0 0.6 2.6 8.2 16.0 22.2 22.2 16.2 8.6 2.7 0.6 0.0
Wisconsin 11 - 9 19 - 12 0.1 0.8 4.0 10.9 18.5 22.9 21.0 13.5 6.0 1.9 0.4 0.1
Washington 9 - 11 17 - 14 0.0 0.4 1.8 6.0 12.3 18.8 22.3 19.2 12.2 5.5 1.3 0.2
USC 9 - 11 19 - 11 0.1 1.2 5.0 12.3 19.0 22.3 19.6 12.3 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.0
Northwestern 5 - 15 13 - 18 0.3 3.0 10.2 21.4 26.4 21.4 11.7 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
Oregon 5 - 15 12 - 19 0.9 5.3 13.5 22.4 23.8 18.4 10.2 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 14 - 17 0.4 3.1 10.4 19.9 24.7 21.0 12.6 5.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Maryland 4 - 16 11 - 20 4.0 14.9 24.7 25.7 17.3 8.8 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
Penn St. 3 - 17 12 - 19 3.8 13.7 23.7 25.3 19.1 9.5 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.1
Rutgers 5 - 15 12 - 19 4.2 15.6 25.2 25.9 17.4 8.4 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 46.6% 26.0 14.6 5.0 0.9 0.1
Illinois 31.8% 16.1 10.2 4.5 1.0 0.1
Michigan St. 20.6% 8.8 7.4 3.4 0.9 0.1
Purdue 3.2% 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
Nebraska 36.8% 17.6 13.3 4.9 0.9 0.1
Iowa 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana
Ohio St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington
USC 0.0% 0.0
Northwestern
Oregon
Minnesota
Maryland
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 38.2% 61.8% 1   69.7 26.4 3.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2   21.2 32.7 25.6 14.6 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 2   19.9 32.9 26.8 14.4 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 3   10.9 24.2 28.4 21.5 10.6 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 2   23.8 39.3 25.6 9.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 91.6% 2.7% 88.9% 7   0.1 0.9 2.7 5.9 10.8 15.9 17.3 14.4 10.8 8.0 4.7 0.1 8.4 91.4%
Indiana 66.2% 1.1% 65.1% 10   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.5 8.7 12.0 13.1 13.3 11.7 0.2 33.8 65.8%
Ohio St. 72.9% 1.0% 71.9% 9   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.8 10.8 14.8 14.6 13.1 10.2 0.1 27.1 72.6%
UCLA 73.2% 0.8% 72.4% 10   0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 5.2 10.3 15.1 15.7 13.8 9.9 0.1 26.8 73.0%
Wisconsin 73.3% 0.7% 72.6% 9   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.4 5.5 11.1 15.5 15.0 12.6 10.2 0.2 26.7 73.1%
Washington 25.0% 0.2% 24.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.7 4.4 7.0 9.4 0.2 0.0 75.0 24.9%
USC 61.3% 0.3% 61.1% 11   0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 6.2 10.6 13.6 14.8 12.2 0.2 38.7 61.2%
Northwestern 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 99.1 0.9%
Oregon 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Minnesota 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.0 98.5 1.5%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.7 0.0 0.8 9.3 32.5 39.4 16.4 1.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.3 0.1 2.2 16.8 38.7 32.6 9.1 0.5
2nd Round 100.0% 7.2 0.0 0.4 4.8 20.8 35.9 27.5 9.4 1.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.2 0.0 0.7 5.1 20.0 34.3 29.0 9.5 1.3 0.1
Elite Eight 97.1% 2.3 2.9 17.1 36.7 30.7 11.0 1.5 0.1
Final Four 82.5% 1.3 17.5 45.6 30.5 6.1 0.3
Final Game 57.8% 0.7 42.2 48.9 8.9
Champion 35.4% 0.4 64.6 35.4

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 84.3% 62.8% 43.5% 28.3% 18.2%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.2% 69.3% 39.7% 20.7% 10.6% 5.1%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.9% 68.8% 38.5% 20.2% 9.9% 4.5%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.9% 65.6% 35.6% 18.0% 8.7% 4.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.8% 64.7% 33.0% 15.0% 6.5% 2.8%
Iowa 91.6% 5.2% 89.6% 61.0% 23.9% 10.0% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4%
Indiana 66.2% 12.6% 60.9% 33.6% 9.7% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Ohio St. 72.9% 11.1% 68.1% 36.0% 9.7% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
UCLA 73.2% 10.9% 68.1% 35.1% 8.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Wisconsin 73.3% 11.0% 68.1% 34.7% 8.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
Washington 25.0% 10.2% 20.2% 8.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 61.3% 13.5% 54.1% 22.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%