Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   10 - 0 2 - 0 28 - 3 18 - 2 +26.9      +12.7 2 +14.2 1 77.9 21 +27.8 4 +20.7 4
7 Purdue 99.9%   2   10 - 1 2 - 0 25 - 6 15 - 5 +20.5      +13.2 1 +7.3 19 63.7 320 +23.2 8 +18.5 5
12 Michigan St. 99.1%   3   9 - 1 2 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 6 +17.9      +6.9 45 +11.0 4 66.4 264 +23.0 9 +25.4 3
14 Illinois 96.9%   4   8 - 3 1 - 1 22 - 9 13 - 7 +17.8      +11.8 7 +6.0 33 71.0 145 +16.1 26 +14.2 7
23 Iowa 84.8%   7   8 - 2 1 - 1 21 - 10 11 - 9 +15.1      +8.1 32 +7.0 23 62.1 351 +16.7 23 +11.7 11
26 Nebraska 95.9%   5   11 - 0 2 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 8 +14.9      +8.5 26 +6.4 30 69.4 191 +25.3 7 +32.7 1
27 Indiana 70.9%   8   8 - 3 1 - 1 20 - 11 11 - 9 +14.8      +7.5 40 +7.4 18 69.6 185 +10.0 61 +4.3 15
30 UCLA 73.3%   8   7 - 3 2 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +13.9      +8.1 33 +5.8 35 63.3 325 +11.6 54 +26.3 2
31 Ohio St. 74.4%   8   8 - 2 1 - 1 20 - 11 11 - 9 +13.6      +8.3 30 +5.3 43 71.5 129 +12.5 47 +13.5 8
34 USC 80.0%   7   9 - 1 1 - 1 21 - 10 10 - 10 +13.0      +8.4 29 +4.6 58 74.8 52 +18.0 19 +9.6 12
40 Wisconsin 47.8%   10   7 - 3 1 - 1 18 - 13 10 - 10 +11.9      +6.8 49 +5.1 45 74.3 57 +11.1 55 +12.1 10
47 Washington 41.5%   7 - 3 1 - 1 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10.9      +6.8 47 +4.1 65 68.8 204 +10.3 57 +13.4 9
58 Northwestern 16.1%   6 - 4 0 - 2 16 - 15 7 - 13 +9.3      +6.8 46 +2.5 93 67.6 233 +7.0 87 -2.8 18
66 Oregon 7.5%   5 - 5 0 - 2 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8.3      +5.0 67 +3.3 76 69.3 192 +4.3 111 -2.7 17
94 Maryland 2.1%   6 - 5 0 - 2 13 - 18 6 - 14 +5.5      +2.8 109 +2.6 91 72.2 111 +6.5 91 +5.1 14
103 Minnesota 1.1%   5 - 5 1 - 1 13 - 18 6 - 14 +4.4      +2.1 117 +2.4 100 60.6 359 +2.2 137 +17.7 6
104 Penn St. 0.8%   8 - 3 0 - 2 14 - 17 5 - 15 +4.2      +5.0 68 -0.8 193 70.7 155 +5.7 98 +1.0 16
133 Rutgers 0.0%   5 - 6 0 - 2 11 - 20 4 - 16 +1.7      +0.3 159 +1.4 126 67.5 235 -0.7 181 +5.6 13




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 26 Nebraska 90 40 Wisconsin 60   
Wed, Dec 10 103 Minnesota 57 7 Purdue 85   
Thu, Dec 11 23 Iowa 62 4 Iowa St. 66   
Sat, Dec 13 27 Indiana 60 21 Kentucky 72   
Sat, Dec 13 14 Illinois 80 26 Nebraska 83   
Sat, Dec 13 5 Gonzaga 82 30 UCLA 72   
Sat, Dec 13 31 Ohio St. 89 63 West Virginia 88   
Sat, Dec 13 88 Marquette 59 7 Purdue 79   
Sat, Dec 13 133 Rutgers 59 56 Seton Hall 81   
Sat, Dec 13 12 Michigan St. 76 104 Penn St. 72   
Sat, Dec 13 94 Maryland 83 1 Michigan 101   
Sat, Dec 13 66 Oregon 104 201 UC Davis 62   
Sat, Dec 13 316 Jackson St. 53 58 Northwestern 93   
Sat, Dec 13 318 Southern Utah 69 47 Washington 105   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 14 34 USC 89 165 Washington St. 73 93%   
Sun, Dec 14 103 Minnesota 77 306 Texas Southern 61 92%   
Sun, Dec 14 23 Iowa 83 242 Western Michigan 60 97%   
Tue, Dec 16 58 Northwestern 79 212 Valparaiso 64 92%   
Tue, Dec 16 12 Michigan St. 85 167 Toledo 63 97%   
Wed, Dec 17 61 Arizona St. 69 30 UCLA 77 77%   
Wed, Dec 17 66 Oregon 84 269 Portland 67 93%   
Wed, Dec 17 34 USC 90 286 Texas San Antonio 67 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.3 78.2 14.2 4.6 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purdue 3.2 18.8 31.8 17.4 10.6 7.1 4.9 3.3 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 4.3 8.8 18.4 19.7 15.1 11.2 8.4 6.3 4.3 3.1 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois 4.8 4.7 15.3 18.0 15.9 13.1 9.9 7.7 5.5 3.7 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 7.0 1.3 6.1 8.6 10.2 10.4 10.8 10.3 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.0 4.3 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Nebraska 5.8 2.9 10.5 13.7 12.9 12.2 11.0 9.5 7.6 6.5 4.8 3.5 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Indiana 7.8 0.6 3.5 6.1 7.5 8.9 10.0 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.6 7.9 6.0 3.9 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
UCLA 6.5 1.9 7.4 10.2 11.6 11.5 11.0 10.5 8.9 7.8 6.1 4.9 3.7 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 8.0 0.8 3.2 5.5 7.3 9.2 9.9 10.8 10.4 10.1 9.2 7.8 6.2 4.1 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1
USC 8.4 0.5 2.6 4.8 6.5 7.6 9.1 10.0 10.2 10.5 9.8 8.8 7.3 5.1 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2
Wisconsin 9.3 0.2 1.4 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.3 8.6 9.9 10.6 10.7 10.6 9.3 7.4 5.0 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.2
Washington 9.9 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.0 7.4 8.8 9.9 10.9 11.3 10.2 8.9 6.7 4.3 2.6 1.3 0.4
Northwestern 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.9 5.4 7.3 9.5 12.0 13.6 13.2 10.7 8.8 5.7 2.9
Oregon 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.0 4.4 6.1 8.1 10.2 12.2 14.1 13.3 10.6 8.2 4.6
Maryland 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.2 5.0 7.2 10.3 13.0 15.3 15.7 14.4 10.6
Minnesota 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.8 8.2 10.6 13.9 15.6 15.3 12.9 7.1
Penn St. 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.6 7.1 10.6 14.4 17.6 20.3 19.0
Rutgers 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.1 8.2 11.6 15.6 21.4 31.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 5.5 11.1 18.1 25.2 23.7 12.4
Purdue 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.1 6.8 10.5 13.9 16.8 16.3 13.8 8.8 4.1 0.9
Michigan St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.8 7.9 12.1 15.4 17.2 15.9 11.6 6.9 3.4 0.9 0.1
Illinois 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.8 9.8 13.9 17.3 17.3 14.3 9.8 4.9 1.4 0.2
Iowa 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.7 6.6 9.9 12.7 14.6 14.8 13.3 10.2 6.5 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
Nebraska 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.3 6.2 9.7 12.8 15.1 15.7 13.9 10.2 6.2 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
Indiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 5.0 8.8 12.4 15.0 16.1 14.3 11.1 7.3 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
UCLA 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.2 8.1 11.5 14.5 15.5 14.4 11.5 7.8 4.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.3 8.9 12.3 14.8 15.6 14.1 10.8 7.1 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
USC 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.9 10.3 13.4 15.2 15.1 12.7 9.6 5.9 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.8 9.3 12.7 15.3 15.5 13.8 10.2 6.9 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 4.4 7.3 10.9 14.3 15.4 14.8 12.1 8.5 5.3 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.8 7.5 11.8 15.1 16.4 14.9 11.8 7.9 4.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oregon 7 - 13 0.1 0.8 2.6 5.9 10.0 13.7 15.9 15.5 13.2 9.9 6.1 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Maryland 6 - 14 0.4 2.2 6.0 10.7 15.5 17.1 15.9 12.9 9.1 5.5 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.1
Minnesota 6 - 14 1.0 4.2 9.7 14.4 17.0 16.9 13.9 10.0 6.6 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 5 - 15 1.0 4.4 10.3 16.1 18.6 17.2 13.7 9.2 5.2 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 4 - 16 2.5 8.4 15.1 18.3 18.4 14.8 10.7 6.3 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 78.2% 64.4 11.7 1.7 0.3 0.0
Purdue 18.8% 10.2 7.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
Michigan St. 8.8% 4.2 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
Illinois 4.7% 1.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Iowa 1.3% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 2.9% 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Indiana 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
UCLA 1.9% 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
USC 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0
Oregon 0.0% 0.0
Maryland
Minnesota
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 56.2% 43.8% 1   81.2 16.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 99.9% 15.0% 84.9% 2   27.8 31.0 20.2 10.7 5.5 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%
Michigan St. 99.1% 7.7% 91.4% 3   8.3 16.3 22.2 19.8 14.2 8.8 4.8 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.9 99.1%
Illinois 96.9% 7.2% 89.8% 4   3.9 9.4 15.6 17.9 16.0 12.4 9.3 5.5 3.3 2.0 1.4 0.0 3.1 96.7%
Iowa 84.8% 2.7% 82.1% 7   0.9 2.5 6.0 9.1 11.7 12.7 12.3 10.2 8.1 6.4 4.7 0.2 0.0 15.2 84.3%
Nebraska 95.9% 2.8% 93.2% 5   1.8 5.6 12.4 15.9 17.0 15.1 10.8 6.9 5.1 3.2 2.0 0.0 4.1 95.8%
Indiana 70.9% 2.1% 68.7% 8   0.2 0.8 2.3 5.0 7.5 9.0 11.1 11.0 9.7 8.2 5.7 0.3 29.1 70.2%
UCLA 73.3% 2.0% 71.3% 8   0.2 0.8 2.6 5.1 7.7 10.3 12.4 11.9 9.4 7.4 5.3 0.2 26.7 72.8%
Ohio St. 74.4% 1.6% 72.8% 8   0.3 0.9 2.9 5.3 8.2 10.5 12.3 12.1 9.3 7.1 5.4 0.3 25.6 74.0%
USC 80.0% 1.3% 78.7% 7   0.2 0.9 3.1 5.7 9.3 12.3 12.7 12.0 9.7 8.2 5.6 0.2 20.0 79.7%
Wisconsin 47.8% 0.7% 47.1% 10   0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.0 4.5 6.6 8.5 8.4 7.8 6.7 0.3 52.2 47.5%
Washington 41.5% 0.5% 41.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.3 5.3 7.5 7.9 7.8 6.2 0.3 0.0 58.5 41.2%
Northwestern 16.1% 0.2% 15.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.0 3.6 3.8 0.3 83.9 15.9%
Oregon 7.5% 0.1% 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 92.5 7.4%
Maryland 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 97.9 2.1%
Minnesota 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 98.9 1.1%
Penn St. 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 99.2 0.8%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 89.5% 73.8% 56.0% 40.5% 28.7%
Purdue 99.9% 0.2% 99.8% 94.9% 68.6% 40.5% 21.0% 10.4% 4.8%
Michigan St. 99.1% 0.5% 98.9% 86.4% 52.0% 24.1% 10.5% 4.5% 1.8%
Illinois 96.9% 1.6% 96.3% 79.6% 45.1% 20.6% 9.0% 3.8% 1.5%
Iowa 84.8% 5.4% 82.4% 56.8% 23.8% 9.2% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4%
Nebraska 95.9% 2.3% 94.8% 69.5% 31.3% 11.2% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4%
Indiana 70.9% 6.6% 68.1% 45.0% 17.3% 6.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
UCLA 73.3% 6.0% 70.5% 44.0% 15.6% 6.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
Ohio St. 74.4% 6.3% 71.7% 44.7% 16.1% 5.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
USC 80.0% 6.6% 76.5% 45.6% 15.6% 5.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Wisconsin 47.8% 7.7% 44.2% 24.2% 7.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Washington 41.5% 7.2% 37.7% 19.1% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 16.1% 4.4% 13.7% 6.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 7.5% 2.5% 6.2% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 2.1% 0.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.9 0.0 0.8 7.2 26.3 36.9 23.0 5.5 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.6 0.1 1.6 11.5 31.5 35.0 17.2 3.0 0.2
2nd Round 100.0% 7.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 7.0 20.1 30.8 26.3 11.7 2.5 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 3.9 0.0 1.4 9.3 26.2 34.3 21.1 6.6 1.1 0.1
Elite Eight 96.5% 2.1 3.5 24.0 40.9 24.9 6.0 0.7 0.0
Final Four 80.6% 1.1 19.4 51.1 25.8 3.6 0.1
Final Game 58.1% 0.7 41.9 51.0 7.1
Champion 38.6% 0.4 61.5 38.6