Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.8 #6
Expected Predictive Rating +22.0 #10
Pace 67.6 #218
Improvement +0.3 #169

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #2 B+ A+ B+ B- C+
Defense #26 A- B+ F+ A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.34 #23 +1.1 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #315 0.92 #20 -1.4 #253
Three Pointers 51% #19 1.09 #79 +7.1 #15
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #27 +6.7 #27
Freethrows 0.31 #165 81% #4 0.25 #75
Second Chance 41.9% #3 1.25 #14 0.52 #2
Turnovers 13.3% #25
Total Offense +13.6 #2

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% #361 1.02 #35 +9.0 #3
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #5 0.64 #19 -2.3 #335
Three Pointers 42% #139 0.92 #66 +1.4 #129
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #7 +8.1 #7
Freethrows 0.17 #2 70% #56 0.12 #2
Second Chance 23.9% #13 0.97 #86 0.23 #20
Turnovers 12.3% #354
Total Defense +7.2 #26

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #106 -4.5% #2
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.9% #23 -11.8% #23
Possession Length 17.4 #178 18.3 #308
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #284 0.12 #38
Improvement +1.9 #86 -1.5 #273

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.8% 3.0% 1.1%
#1 Seed 19.9% 21.5% 8.9%
Top 2 Seed 52.1% 55.0% 32.1%
Top 4 Seed 93.5% 94.6% 85.3%
Top 6 Seed 99.7% 99.8% 99.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.6 2.5 3.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 31.3% 33.9% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.1% 97.4% 95.2%
Sweet Sixteen69.2% 70.2% 62.3%
Elite Eight39.7% 40.6% 33.1%
Final Four20.6% 21.4% 15.0%
Championship Game10.4% 10.8% 7.4%
National Champion5.0% 5.2% 3.0%

Next Game: Washington (Home) - 87.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 67 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 110 - 6
Quad 26 - 116 - 7
Quad 34 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 337 Jackson St. W 113 - 55 100% +33  1 - 0 +44 +25 A A+ C +15 A- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 232 Florida Gulf Coast W 113 - 70 99% +31  2 - 0 +36 +27 A+ A+ A+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 15 Texas Tech W 81 - 77 71% +4  3 - 0 +19 +11 B+ A+ D+ +8 C+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 14 213 Colgate W 84 - 65 99% +11  4 - 0 +13 +11 F A+ A- +3 B+ B+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 16 Alabama L 86 - 90 61% -1  4 - 1 +14 +9 B+ A- C+ +5 B- C+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 227 LIU Brooklyn W 98 - 58 99% +26  5 - 1 +33 +21 A+ A+ C+ +12 B- A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 87 - 73 98% +8  6 - 1 +9 +14 A- B- B- -5 B C F
 Fri, Nov 28 10 Connecticut L 61 - 74 53% -10  6 - 2 +7 +3 C- C A- +4 B- A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 20 Tennessee W 75 - 62 64% +4  7 - 2 +30 +21 A A+ A+ +11 A+ C- B+
 Tue, Dec 9 35 @Ohio St. W 88 - 80 65% +4  8 - 2 1 - 0 +25 +22 A+ D+ A- +3 A C F
 Sat, Dec 13 13 Nebraska L 80 - 83 68% -6  8 - 3 1 - 1 +13 +24 A A+ A+ -11 C C D-
 Mon, Dec 22 56 Missouri W 91 - 48 84% +17  9 - 3 +53 +33 B+ A+ C +25 A+ A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 260 Southern W 90 - 55 99% +20  10 - 3 +27 +22 A+ A+ D- +7 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 3 110 @Penn St. W 73 - 65 90% +10  11 - 3 2 - 1 +15 +4 F C- A- +11 A+ B- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 119 Rutgers W 81 - 55 96% +17  12 - 3 3 - 1 +26 +15 A+ F A+ +13 A A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 11 23 @Iowa W 75 - 69 57% +10  13 - 3 4 - 1 +25 +17 B+ C+ A- +9 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 61 @Northwestern W 79 - 68 80% +5  14 - 3 5 - 1 +23 +25 A+ A+ B+ -0 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 17 72 Minnesota W 77 - 67 92% +2  15 - 3 6 - 1 +15 +18 B+ A+ B -2 A- F+ F+
 Wed, Jan 21 106 Maryland W 89 - 70 95% +12  16 - 3 7 - 1 +20 +20 C- A+ A+ +1 B B F
 Sat, Jan 24 8 @Purdue W 88 - 82 40% -3  17 - 3 8 - 1 +29 +33 A+ A+ B -3 D A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 46 Washington W 83 - 71 88%
 Sun, Feb 1 13 @Nebraska L 76 - 77 45%
 Wed, Feb 4 61 Northwestern W 83 - 68 92%
 Sat, Feb 7 7 @Michigan St. L 71 - 74 40%
 Tue, Feb 10 39 Wisconsin W 86 - 75 84%
 Sun, Feb 15 31 Indiana W 83 - 74 81%
 Wed, Feb 18 44 @USC W 81 - 75 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 34 @UCLA W 76 - 72 64%
 Fri, Feb 27 1 Michigan L 80 - 81 47%
 Tue, Mar 3 79 Oregon W 84 - 67 94%
 Sun, Mar 8 106 @Maryland W 83 - 70 89%
Totals 25 - 6 16 - 4 +21 +14 B+ A+ B+ +7 A- B+ F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.6 13.7 11.1 2.8 31.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.9 12.7 8.0 0.6 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 9.3 9.0 1.0 20.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.9 7.0 1.3 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.0 0.5 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.3 10.8 19.9 26.6 22.8 11.7 2.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8
18-2 94.8% 11.1    8.2 2.8 0.2
17-3 60.2% 13.7    4.5 6.5 2.5 0.2
16-4 13.4% 3.6    0.3 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.0
15-5 0.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.3% 31.3 15.7 10.3 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.8% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.4 1.8 0.9 0.1 100.0%
18-2 11.7% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 1.6 5.5 5.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 22.8% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 1.9 7.2 10.5 4.4 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-4 26.6% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 2.5 4.0 9.9 9.1 3.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 19.9% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 3.1 1.2 4.5 7.4 5.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.8% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 3.7 0.2 1.2 3.3 4.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.3% 100.0% 4.1% 95.9% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 100.0%
12-8 1.1% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.2% 100.0% 4.7% 95.3% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.6 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.2 80.2 19.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.3 67.6 30.4 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 1.4 64.1 32.6 3.3