Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.2 #39
Expected Predictive Rating +14.0 #39
Pace 72.9 #77
Improvement +1.2 #130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #33 B+ C+ A- B B
Defense #56 B- B+ C B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #266 1.28 #67 +0.4 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #343 0.90 #34 -2.9 #317
Three Pointers 54% #9 1.09 #85 +8.3 #8
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #42 +5.8 #42
Freethrows 0.34 #70 77% #29 0.26 #34
Second Chance 30.2% #192 1.16 #49 0.35 #112
Turnovers 12.4% #7
Total Offense +8.2 #33

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #292 1.01 #31 +4.7 #45
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #54 0.89 #348 -3.4 #356
Three Pointers 40% #202 0.95 #90 +1.6 #119
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #82 +3.0 #82
Freethrows 0.27 #79 72% #143 0.19 #90
Second Chance 22.7% #6 1.04 #176 0.24 #21
Turnovers 16.0% #208
Total Defense +5.0 #56

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #55 -1.6% #58
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.1% #52 -4.3% #98
Possession Length 15.2 #21 18.1 #295
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #63 0.12 #32
Improvement +1.4 #114 -0.2 #208

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 8.9% 12.1% 4.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.2% 82.9% 64.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.0% 82.8% 64.3%
Average Seed 8.5 8.2 8.9
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 95.5% 77.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.4% 8.4% 13.2%
First Round70.1% 78.8% 58.1%
Second Round35.3% 41.1% 27.2%
Sweet Sixteen8.6% 10.4% 6.2%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.7% 2.0%
Final Four0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Home) - 58.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 25 - 210 - 12
Quad 34 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 207 Campbell W 96 - 64 95% +8  1 - 0 +26 +17 B A+ A +8 B C A+
 Fri, Nov 7 310 Northern Illinois W 97 - 72 98% +19  2 - 0 +13 +15 C A+ A+ -3 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 295 Ball St. W 86 - 55 98% +19  3 - 0 +20 +11 A- B+ F +10 B B- A
 Mon, Nov 17 261 SIU Edwardsville W 94 - 69 97% +12  4 - 0 +16 +25 A+ C A+ -8 C F+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 14 BYU L 70 - 98 30% -12  4 - 1 -9 +1 C C- B- -8 C+ A- D-
 Thu, Nov 27 66 Providence W 104 - 83 68% +14  5 - 1 +29 +16 B+ B A+ +11 B A- B
 Fri, Nov 28 45 TCU L 63 - 74 57% -11  5 - 2 +1 -6 F+ C- D- +7 C- A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 61 Northwestern W 85 - 73 76% +16  6 - 2 1 - 0 +18 +15 A+ D A+ +3 A F A
 Sat, Dec 6 93 Marquette W 96 - 76 84% +12  7 - 2 +23 +15 A+ F A +6 C A+ D
 Wed, Dec 10 13 @Nebraska L 60 - 90 20% -14  7 - 3 1 - 1 -8 -1 C- C- A- -7 D+ D+ B-
 Fri, Dec 19 36 Villanova L 66 - 76 OT 47% -7  7 - 4 +4 +0 C+ B+ D +3 A+ C D-
 Mon, Dec 22 302 Central Michigan W 88 - 61 98% +15  8 - 4 +16 +13 A+ F B +4 B A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 60 96% +14  9 - 4 +12 -2 C F A- +14 A+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 8 Purdue L 73 - 89 34% -8  9 - 5 1 - 2 +1 +4 D+ B+ B- -2 A+ B- D
 Tue, Jan 6 34 UCLA W 80 - 72 58% +12  10 - 5 2 - 2 +19 +10 B A- A+ +8 A B C
 Sat, Jan 10 1 @Michigan W 91 - 88 9% -2  11 - 5 3 - 2 +31 +30 A+ A+ A- +0 B- A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 72 @Minnesota W 78 - 75 59% -1  12 - 5 4 - 2 +14 +18 A+ C+ A+ -4 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 119 Rutgers W 96 - 87 89% +13  13 - 5 5 - 2 +9 +19 B- A+ A -10 F C+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 110 @Penn St. W 98 - 71 74% +20  14 - 5 6 - 2 +34 +25 A+ D- A+ +9 A+ B+ F+
 Sun, Jan 25 44 USC L 71 - 73 67% -1  14 - 6 6 - 3 +7 +10 D- A A+ -3 A B- F
 Wed, Jan 28 72 Minnesota W 67 - 63 79% -8  15 - 6 7 - 3 +9 +4 A F+ D +5 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 35 Ohio St. W 81 - 79 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 31 @Indiana L 77 - 81 34%
 Tue, Feb 10 6 @Illinois L 75 - 86 16%
 Fri, Feb 13 7 Michigan St. L 71 - 75 33%
 Tue, Feb 17 35 @Ohio St. L 78 - 82 36%
 Sun, Feb 22 23 Iowa W 74 - 73 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 79 @Oregon W 78 - 75 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 46 @Washington L 78 - 79 45%
 Wed, Mar 4 106 Maryland W 84 - 72 86%
 Sat, Mar 7 8 @Purdue L 73 - 83 17%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +13 +8 B+ C+ A- +5 B- B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.1 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.8 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 5.1 3.2 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 8.3 7.2 0.9 18.0 6th
7th 0.5 6.8 9.0 1.7 0.0 18.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.5 10.2 3.0 0.1 16.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 7.8 4.5 0.2 13.8 9th
10th 0.3 3.9 4.9 0.6 9.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.0 2.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.3 2.5 9.4 17.8 23.6 22.0 14.7 6.9 2.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 90.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 12.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.3% 100.0% 2.9% 97.1% 5.7 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 100.0%
14-6 6.9% 99.7% 1.9% 97.8% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 99.7%
13-7 14.7% 98.7% 0.8% 97.8% 7.5 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.8 4.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.7%
12-8 22.0% 93.0% 0.7% 92.3% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 6.6 5.9 3.2 0.6 1.5 92.9%
11-9 23.6% 81.8% 0.4% 81.4% 9.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 5.8 6.3 2.9 0.0 4.3 81.8%
10-10 17.8% 52.6% 0.3% 52.4% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.9 0.1 8.5 52.5%
9-11 9.4% 19.2% 0.2% 19.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4 0.1 7.6 19.1%
8-12 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 11.1 0.1 0.0 2.5 2.2%
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 75.2% 0.7% 74.5% 8.5 24.8 75.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%