Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.7 #22
Expected Predictive Rating +18.9 #16
Pace 64.2 #301
Improvement -0.2 #196

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #17 B+ A B C B-
Defense #36 A- B C- C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #198 1.25 #79 +1.3 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #310 0.91 #27 -1.4 #255
Three Pointers 48% #42 1.12 #53 +6.2 #23
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #36 +6.2 #36
Freethrows 0.31 #177 74% #122 0.23 #151
Second Chance 37.1% #27 1.25 #15 0.46 #12
Turnovers 14.4% #69
Total Offense +10.1 #17

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #277 0.93 #7 +5.9 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #16 0.70 #94 -2.2 #331
Three Pointers 37% #296 0.95 #86 +3.6 #49
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #13 +7.3 #13
Freethrows 0.28 #133 72% #191 0.21 #135
Second Chance 29.4% #127 0.86 #13 0.25 #37
Turnovers 15.4% #242
Total Defense +6.5 #36

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #81 -2.4% #24
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.3% #39 -12.1% #17
Possession Length 16.2 #66 19.8 #365
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #107 0.15 #108
Improvement -1.2 #246 +1.0 #128

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.9% 3.3% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 27.4% 29.5% 13.1%
Top 6 Seed 75.2% 77.9% 56.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.8% 99.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.8% 99.3%
Average Seed 5.5 5.3 6.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 7.9% 8.8% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round99.7% 99.8% 99.3%
Second Round77.5% 78.7% 69.3%
Sweet Sixteen34.9% 36.1% 26.5%
Elite Eight13.3% 13.9% 9.6%
Final Four5.1% 5.4% 2.9%
Championship Game2.0% 2.1% 0.9%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 87.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 14 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 4
Quad 28 - 215 - 7
Quad 35 - 020 - 7
Quad 47 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 352 Rider W 87 - 53 99% +17  1 - 0 +18 +16 C- A+ B+ +5 B- B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 343 NC Central W 81 - 62 99% +19  2 - 0 +4 +10 C A+ D -4 B+ C+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 235 Hampton W 91 - 53 98% +24  3 - 0 +31 +20 A- A+ D- +13 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 168 Marshall W 104 - 78 96% +20  4 - 0 +22 +21 A A+ A -0 A+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 61 Northwestern W 83 - 78 77% -1  5 - 0 +14 +13 D+ A C+ +1 C+ B+ D
 Sun, Nov 23 60 Butler L 73 - 80 77% -5  5 - 1 +2 +4 D+ B+ B+ -2 D A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 199 Queens W 94 - 69 97% +12  6 - 1 +19 +22 A+ F B- -0 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 33 @Texas W 88 - 69 48% +6  7 - 1 +36 +26 A- B+ A- +12 A+ B D
 Sat, Dec 6 85 Dayton W 86 - 73 83% +2  8 - 1 +20 +15 A+ A+ F +4 B A+ F+
 Tue, Dec 9 332 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 60 99% +12  9 - 1 +10 +11 A F+ A+ +1 C- C+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 106 Maryland W 80 - 72 92% -0  10 - 1 +9 +12 B D A -2 F+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 233 American W 95 - 51 98% +18  11 - 1 +37 +29 A+ A+ B+ +12 A+ C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 59 @Virginia Tech L 85 - 95 3OT 66% -8  11 - 2 0 - 1 +2 -4 C- F+ C +9 A+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 24 @North Carolina St. W 76 - 61 42% +12  12 - 2 1 - 1 +34 +18 A+ A+ C +17 A+ A+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 69 California W 84 - 60 86% +5  13 - 2 2 - 1 +29 +17 A- A C +13 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 84 Stanford W 70 - 55 88% +6  14 - 2 3 - 1 +19 +6 B- C+ A +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 19 @Louisville W 79 - 70 36% +2  15 - 2 4 - 1 +29 +19 B+ A+ D +11 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 37 @SMU W 72 - 68 49% -1  16 - 2 5 - 1 +21 +14 C+ A+ C +8 A C C-
 Sat, Jan 24 28 North Carolina L 80 - 85 68% +0  16 - 3 5 - 2 +7 +13 B+ A+ D+ -7 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 81 @Notre Dame W 100 - 97 2OT 74% -9  17 - 3 6 - 2 +13 +22 A C+ C+ -9 D- A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 132 @Boston College W 74 - 62 87%
 Tue, Feb 3 92 Pittsburgh W 78 - 64 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 76 Syracuse W 80 - 68 87%
 Tue, Feb 10 105 @Florida St. W 82 - 73 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 35 Ohio St. W 76 - 73 60%
 Wed, Feb 18 111 @Georgia Tech W 79 - 69 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 40 Miami (FL) W 78 - 71 73%
 Tue, Feb 24 24 North Carolina St. W 78 - 74 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 3 @Duke L 68 - 78 18%
 Tue, Mar 3 68 Wake Forest W 80 - 69 86%
 Sat, Mar 7 59 Virginia Tech W 79 - 69 83%
Totals 25 - 6 14 - 4 +17 +10 B+ A B +7 A- B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.9 3.1 7.9 1st
2nd 0.7 7.8 21.4 16.2 0.8 46.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.7 11.3 6.9 0.9 22.9 3rd
4th 0.9 6.0 4.3 0.5 11.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 5.5 14.0 23.9 29.7 21.0 4.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 79.3% 3.1    1.5 1.6 0.1
15-3 18.3% 3.9    0.7 2.4 0.7 0.0
14-4 3.1% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 2.4 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 4.0% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 3.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 21.0% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 4.3 0.3 1.0 4.1 6.9 5.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-4 29.7% 100.0% 12.2% 87.7% 5.1 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.2 9.6 8.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 23.9% 99.8% 10.1% 89.8% 5.9 0.0 0.5 2.3 6.1 8.3 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 14.0% 99.5% 6.5% 93.0% 6.7 0.1 0.3 1.6 4.0 4.5 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.1 99.5%
11-7 5.5% 98.9% 3.9% 95.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.9%
10-8 1.6% 97.2% 1.9% 95.4% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 97.2%
9-9 0.3% 91.8% 91.8% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.8%
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 11.4% 88.4% 5.5 0.3 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.7 38.9 50.8 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 2.7 11.9 29.4 41.3 16.1 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 3.0 4.9 26.0 38.2 27.6 2.4 0.8