Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.0 218
Expected Predictive Rating -3.1 215
Pace 73.7 56
Improvement -4.2 334

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #280 D+ C D- B C-
Defense C+ #137 D- D+ A+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 42 53% 291 +1.2 134
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 53 40% 120 +3.1 46
Three Pointers 28% 361 33% 209 -6.7 349
1st FG Attempt 0.97 248 -2.4 247
Second Chance 31.1% 163 1.04 146 0.32 143
Turnovers 19.7% 329
Freethrows 0.33 111 76% 49 0.25 74
Total Offense -4.1 280

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 218 63% 301 -1.1 211
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 293 44% 338 +0.5 148
Three Pointers 46% 49 37% 311 -4.6 344
1st FG Attempt 1.12 332 -5.2 332
Second Chance 32.2% 250 1.08 270 0.35 273
Turnovers 23.0% 5
Freethrows 0.37 336 72% 187 0.27 332
Total Defense +1.1 137

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 253 +0.4 243
Shot Type Accuracy -1.9 238 +4.6 333
Possession Length 17.5 199 15.7 7
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 62 0.16 127
Improvement -6.9 #360 +2.7 #48

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.1% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 9.2% 16.0% 2.9%
.500 or above in Conference 5.5% 10.5% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.0% 7.9% 39.1%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.3%
First Round2.9% 3.7% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 33 - 54 - 12
Quad 48 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 37 @SMU L 76 - 96 4% -7  3% 0 - 1 C- -3 C+ +3 D C D D+ -5 D- A C+
 Wed, Nov 5 49 @LSU L 60 - 96 7% -19  2% 0 - 2 F -22 F+ -9 F D+ B+ F -14 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 197 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 77 59% +13  98% 1 - 2 C+ +3 A- +11 A- A+ B- D- -8 D D- B-
 Tue, Nov 11 184 Merrimack W 76 - 62 56% +5  81% 2 - 2 B +10 D+ -4 B D+ F A +13 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 41 @Baylor L 81 - 94 5% -10  2% 2 - 3 C+ +3 B+ +8 A A+ F D+ -5 F+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 224 @Rice W 90 - 74 41% +3  49% 3 - 3 A- +15 B +7 A+ F+ D+ B+ +7 D+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 1 51 @Cincinnati L 58 - 76 7% -8  8% 3 - 4 C- -4 D- -6 C+ B F C+ +2 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88 - 64 94% +9  88% 4 - 4 C+ +3 C- -1 C+ D- F+ C+ +2 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 328 Florida A&M W 78 - 54 84% +14  79% 5 - 4 B +10 F+ -9 D- A F A+ +17 A+ C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 170 @Texas Arlington W 69 - 63 30% +6  91% 6 - 4 1 - 0 B +8 C+ +2 B- C+ A+ B+ +7 C+ C A+
 Thu, Jan 1 95 Utah Valley L 85 - 91 30% -2  26% 6 - 5 1 - 1 C- -4 B- +5 D+ C+ A+ D- -8 F+ B- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 139 California Baptist W 81 - 76 OT 45% +1  61% 7 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +2 A- F+ D- C+ +1 F D- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 264 Abilene Christian L 80 - 84 70% -7  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D- -13 C -0 F A+ B+ F -12 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 284 @Southern Utah L 105 - 106 OT 54% -5  3% 7 - 7 2 - 3 D+ -5 B- +5 C A F+ F+ -10 F F C
 Sat, Jan 17 205 @Utah Tech L 71 - 75 37% -6  0% 7 - 8 2 - 4 C- -4 D -4 F+ F+ A C+ +0 F+ C- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 170 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 71 30% -1  29% 7 - 9 2 - 5 C- -5 D -5 C- D- F C +0 D C C+
 Thu, Jan 29 95 Utah Valley L 55 - 83 30% -4  38% 7 - 10 2 - 6 F -26 F -20 F C- F D+ -5 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 205 Utah Tech L 59 - 65 60% -1  46% 7 - 11 2 - 7 D- -12 F -13 F A- F C+ +1 F A+ A
 Thu, Feb 5 139 @California Baptist L 55 - 56 25% +1  58% 7 - 12 2 - 8 C+ +3 F -12 C F F A+ +15 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 284 @Southern Utah W 62 - 59 54% +1  53% 8 - 12 3 - 8 C -1 F -13 F+ D F A +12 B C- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 264 @Abilene Christian L 70 - 71 48%
 Mon, Feb 16 264 Abilene Christian W 74 - 68 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 284 Southern Utah W 79 - 72 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 205 Utah Tech W 75 - 72 60%
 Thu, Feb 26 95 @Utah Valley L 69 - 80 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 139 @California Baptist L 66 - 73 25%
 Thu, Mar 5 170 Texas Arlington W 70 - 69 53%
Totals 11 - 16 6 - 12 -3 D+ -4 D+ C D- C+ +1 D- D+ A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C+ C- C- 44% 28% 28% C- D+ C C+ C D- B- B B C+ D D- D D- 37% 17% 46% C- D- C- D+ D+ A+ D- C D-
1.03 53% 40% 33% -2 0 0.97 31% 1.0 .32 20% .33 76% .25 1.07 63% 44% 37% +5 0 1.12 32% 1.1 .35 23% .37 72% .24
Nov
3		 SMU C+ A+ F B+ C- 22% 43% 35% F D C+ C- C D A+ A+ A+ D+ F F F+ F+ 30% 33% 37% A- D- A B+ A C+ F D+ F
1.04 80% 15% 38% -3 -4 0.87 30% 0.9 .27 21% .61 83% .50 1.32 79% 53% 41% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.9 .25 15% .68 79% .53
Nov
5		 LSU F+ F F F+ F 43% 17% 40% B F C- C- D+ B+ C+ A- B- F F F F F 54% 10% 37% F F F C- F A+ F C+ F
0.88 43% 11% 29% -14 +1 0.75 27% 0.8 .23 13% .30 72% .22 1.41 95% 50% 47% +28 +2 1.63 44% 1.3 .56 22% .55 76% .41
Nov
8		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- F A+ A+ A 37% 29% 34% D- A- B A+ A+ B- A+ A- A+ D- B C F+ D 45% 17% 38% D D F C+ D- B- F B F
1.23 40% 58% 50% +8 -1 1.15 35% 1.4 .50 19% .66 78% .52 1.11 48% 38% 39% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.9 .35 19% .52 62% .32
Nov
11		 Merrimack D+ C+ A+ F A- 45% 37% 18% F+ B C+ D- D+ F A C+ A A C+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% D A+ F A+ C- A+ F C- F
1.03 57% 58% 22% +4 -2 1.06 42% 0.8 .35 23% .44 72% .32 0.84 53% 25% 18% -15 +2 0.76 38% 0.7 .26 29% .46 79% .36
Nov
14		 Baylor B+ A+ A+ C A+ 10% 71% 18% F A A+ D- A+ F C+ A+ B+ D+ D- F F+ F 15% 33% 52% A F+ B- F F A+ C- F F+
1.11 100% 54% 33% +16 -9 1.16 60% 0.8 .47 29% .27 86% .23 1.29 71% 63% 40% +15 -3 1.25 36% 1.9 .68 21% .34 85% .29
Nov
20		 Rice B A+ B+ B- A+ 50% 34% 16% C+ A+ D F F+ D+ A- B- A B+ F A D D+ 24% 27% 49% C D+ A- A+ A+ C+ F A+ B-
1.21 84% 41% 38% +15 -1 1.30 29% 0.8 .21 17% .41 76% .31 0.99 69% 27% 37% +2 -2 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 19% .40 46% .18
Dec
1		 Cincinnati D- F B A+ C 41% 20% 39% B- C+ D A+ B F C+ F D+ C+ B- A+ F F 17% 12% 71% C+ F F D+ F A+ D+ A C+
0.82 33% 44% 41% -5 0 0.93 17% 1.8 .31 27% .27 57% .15 1.07 57% 20% 47% +11 0 1.24 44% 1.1 .47 30% .30 60% .18
Dec
16		 Mississippi Valley C- C F A+ C 51% 14% 35% B+ C+ D D D- F+ C- A+ B+ C+ D- F C+ F 43% 27% 30% F F B- F D- A+ B- B+ B
1.17 62% 29% 44% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 21% .37 91% .34 0.85 63% 58% 31% +6 -1 1.14 21% 1.4 .29 35% .24 67% .16
Dec
19		 Florida A&M F+ F A A+ F+ 61% 20% 18% B D- C+ A+ A F A- D B A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 13% 45% F A+ B+ F C A+ F B F
1.00 43% 50% 44% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.3 .46 26% .40 74% .29 0.70 50% 17% 19% -16 +1 0.72 23% 1.0 .23 30% .44 63% .27
Dec
29		 Texas Arlington C+ B- C+ C+ B 35% 39% 26% F+ B- F+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F D- B+ B+ C+ C- C 39% 21% 39% B- C+ B- D+ C A+ F C+ F
1.05 63% 39% 33% +2 -3 1.00 20% 1.7 .34 11% .48 46% .22 0.96 47% 38% 33% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 27% .59 71% .42
Jan
1		 Utah Valley B- F+ A+ D- D+ 47% 22% 31% C+ D+ D A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- D- B- D D- 59% 7% 35% F F+ C- B+ B- B- F F+ F
1.12 46% 50% 29% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 12% .48 88% .42 1.20 67% 33% 38% +7 +3 1.22 38% 1.0 .38 22% .61 75% .46
Jan
3		 California Baptist C+ A D- A+ A+ 33% 41% 26% F A- D F F+ D- A+ C A+ C+ F F D F 46% 13% 41% D F D D D- A+ D+ C C-
1.09 67% 32% 50% +6 -3 1.09 21% 0.6 .12 19% .64 74% .48 1.02 67% 50% 37% +7 +1 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 28% .34 72% .24
Jan
8		 Abilene Christian C F D- F F 67% 22% 11% B F B+ A+ A+ B+ B A+ A+ F C- F F F 43% 23% 34% D+ F F F F A- F D+ F
1.10 48% 30% 0% -14 +2 0.78 35% 1.7 .61 19% .50 93% .46 1.16 58% 60% 40% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.6 .64 25% .48 73% .35
Jan
15		 Southern Utah B- D- D A+ C- 61% 18% 21% A- C D+ A+ A F+ A+ B+ A+ F+ D- C+ F+ F 40% 11% 49% F+ F C- F F C F D+ F
1.16 50% 33% 57% +2 +2 1.09 28% 1.5 .44 18% .38 75% .28 1.17 67% 33% 38% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.5 .45 20% .58 74% .43
Jan
17		 Utah Tech D D A+ F F 57% 17% 26% B- F+ B+ F F+ A B+ F C- C+ F A+ C- F+ 38% 11% 51% D F+ A- F C- A+ F D+ F
1.02 55% 50% 13% -8 +2 0.90 39% 0.6 .22 11% .36 59% .21 1.08 88% 0% 35% +8 +1 1.20 23% 1.2 .27 23% .43 74% .32
Jan
21		 Texas Arlington D C+ D+ F C- 52% 34% 14% C C- B+ F D- F C+ A+ A+ C D+ F A+ D+ 49% 8% 44% F D B+ F+ C C+ F B F
0.95 61% 33% 17% -4 -1 0.93 34% 0.6 .22 27% .39 95% .36 1.05 58% 100% 24% -2 +2 1.03 31% 1.1 .35 21% .66 69% .45
Jan
29		 Utah Valley F F F B- F 37% 30% 33% D- F C+ D C- F A+ D- A+ D+ C- C F F 51% 18% 31% B- F+ F F F A+ C- F F
0.76 25% 15% 36% -18 -1 0.63 32% 0.9 .29 26% .55 69% .38 1.15 61% 38% 50% +9 +1 1.22 43% 1.5 .65 28% .31 94% .29
Jan
31		 Utah Tech F F B- F F 46% 10% 44% B F A C- A- F B A+ A- C+ F C F F 30% 17% 52% B- F A A+ A+ A A A+ A+
0.93 45% 40% 14% -18 +2 0.69 44% 1.0 .44 20% .34 82% .28 1.02 71% 38% 50% +17 0 1.35 21% 0.0 .00 22% .16 38% .06
Feb
5		 California Baptist F A C+ F C+ 45% 39% 16% F+ C F F+ F F F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 27% 30% A- A+ F B+ C- A+ F F F
0.84 70% 40% 0% -2 -2 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 20% .11 83% .09 0.85 26% 50% 23% -15 -1 0.70 47% 0.8 .35 24% .40 80% .32
Feb
7		 Southern Utah F F A D+ F+ 50% 32% 18% D+ F+ D D+ D F D+ D D+ A A+ B+ F+ B 33% 23% 44% B- B F A C- A+ A F B
0.90 44% 50% 33% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 23% .23 67% .15 0.86 38% 27% 38% -7 -1 0.88 38% 0.8 .30 28% .16 88% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.0 2.8 0.2 9.6 4th
5th 2.3 14.9 22.8 10.7 1.1 0.0 51.8 5th
6th 1.3 9.8 11.1 3.0 0.2 25.5 6th
7th 0.8 4.8 4.7 1.0 0.0 11.4 7th
Total 0.8 6.1 16.9 27.1 27.4 16.2 4.9 0.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.6% 12.4% 12.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 4.9% 7.5% 7.5% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.5
8-10 16.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.1 15.3
7-11 27.4% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 26.4
6-12 27.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 26.3
5-13 16.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 16.7
4-14 6.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.1
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.4 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.4%