Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
42 Saint Louis 45.6%   11   9 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 5 14 - 4 +11.6      +6.0 57 +5.6 39 76.9 32 +12.6 45 0.0 1
48 Virginia Commonwealth 34.2%   6 - 4 0 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 5 +10.9      +4.3 75 +6.6 27 72.4 106 +7.2 84 0.0 1
72 Dayton 16.1%   8 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +7.9      +3.1 100 +4.8 53 69.8 176 +10.1 58 0.0 1
75 George Mason 14.5%   9 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 11 - 7 +7.7      +3.6 90 +4.1 66 63.2 329 +11.7 51 0.0 1
81 George Washington 10.7%   8 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +7.3      +6.7 50 +0.6 147 73.3 78 +3.7 116 0.0 1
102 Richmond 5.1%   8 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 10 9 - 9 +4.7      +2.4 113 +2.3 102 72.4 105 +10.1 59 0.0 1
113 St. Bonaventure 3.0%   9 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +3.4      +1.6 125 +1.8 113 65.7 281 +9.1 68 0.0 1
116 Rhode Island 2.8%   7 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +3.3      +0.6 149 +2.7 88 69.1 198 +3.7 115 0.0 1
128 Davidson 2.0%   7 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +2.1      +1.1 135 +1.0 137 65.3 289 +7.6 80 0.0 1
137 Duquesne 1.2%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 +1.6      +1.5 127 +0.1 165 77.2 29 -2.3 204 0.0 1
171 Saint Joseph's 0.4%   5 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 -1.0      -2.1 227 +1.1 136 69.6 183 -0.4 176 0.0 1
198 Fordham 0.2%   5 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 6 - 12 -2.5      -2.0 225 -0.5 183 62.1 350 -7.9 286 0.0 1
238 La Salle 0.0%   3 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 22 4 - 14 -4.3      -3.8 268 -0.4 179 65.1 295 -7.6 279 0.0 1
263 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   3 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 23 4 - 14 -5.5      -1.6 209 -4.0 308 64.7 304 -11.1 317 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 74 New Mexico 81 48 Virginia Commonwealth 78   
Wed, Dec 10 282 Delaware 70 81 George Washington 58   
Wed, Dec 10 180 Colgate 77 113 St. Bonaventure 85   
Wed, Dec 10 46 Boise St. 86 137 Duquesne 64   
Wed, Dec 10 362 Fairleigh Dickinson 54 198 Fordham 75   
Thu, Dec 11 171 Saint Joseph's 63 68 Syracuse 71   
Sat, Dec 13 42 Saint Louis 85 96 San Francisco 75   
Sat, Dec 13 13 Florida 80 81 George Washington 70   
Sat, Dec 13 102 Richmond 93 130 Southern Illinois 84   
Sat, Dec 13 137 Duquesne 75 99 Nevada 78   
Sat, Dec 13 175 Ohio 88 113 St. Bonaventure 83   
Sat, Dec 13 213 LIU Brooklyn 70 238 La Salle 60   
Sat, Dec 13 75 George Mason 73 216 Old Dominion 61   
Sat, Dec 13 198 Fordham 82 321 Manhattan 53   
Sat, Dec 13 128 Davidson 80 328 Mercyhurst 47   
Sat, Dec 13 72 Dayton 84 344 North Florida 61   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 14 350 Chicago St. 69 263 Loyola Chicago 79 83%   
Mon, Dec 15 353 Niagara 56 48 Virginia Commonwealth 83 99%   
Tue, Dec 16 72 Dayton 83 105 Florida St. 76 74%   
Tue, Dec 16 339 Canisius 58 116 Rhode Island 75 94%   
Wed, Dec 17 192 Elon 78 102 Richmond 81 64%   
Wed, Dec 17 263 Loyola Chicago 64 96 San Francisco 78 90%   
Wed, Dec 17 223 Bethune-Cookman 68 42 Saint Louis 86 95%   
Thu, Dec 18 128 Davidson 77 163 Temple 72 70%   
Thu, Dec 18 248 American 66 48 Virginia Commonwealth 84 95%   
Thu, Dec 18 348 Delaware St. 62 171 Saint Joseph's 76 90%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 2.4 44.3 22.5 13.3 8.0 5.0 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 3.0 31.6 21.4 15.2 10.8 7.6 5.2 3.4 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dayton 4.5 12.8 14.3 15.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 7.9 5.6 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
George Mason 4.4 14.3 15.7 14.6 12.9 11.1 9.1 7.1 5.8 3.8 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
George Washington 4.4 11.9 15.7 15.9 14.2 11.9 9.6 7.7 5.4 3.6 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
Richmond 6.5 4.0 6.3 8.6 9.7 10.7 11.1 10.9 10.7 9.6 7.6 5.3 3.3 1.6 0.6
St. Bonaventure 6.8 2.7 5.2 7.3 9.2 10.8 11.3 12.1 11.0 9.9 8.2 6.0 3.7 1.9 0.7
Rhode Island 6.9 2.9 5.0 7.2 8.9 10.3 11.0 11.8 11.4 10.1 8.7 6.2 4.1 2.0 0.6
Davidson 7.2 2.3 3.9 6.1 8.0 10.0 11.1 11.5 11.5 10.6 9.0 7.2 5.0 2.7 1.2
Duquesne 8.7 0.9 1.9 3.0 4.3 5.9 7.4 9.2 11.0 12.4 12.9 12.3 10.0 5.9 2.9
Saint Joseph's 9.5 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.2 5.9 7.7 9.7 12.9 14.1 14.1 11.9 8.7 5.1
Fordham 10.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.0 4.6 6.3 9.2 12.7 15.4 18.4 15.6 10.2
La Salle 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 5.6 8.6 12.7 18.0 24.3 22.5
Loyola Chicago 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.8 6.1 9.7 16.2 25.8 34.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 7.5 12.0 16.0 18.5 17.6 12.5 6.5 1.8
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.1 7.1 11.0 14.3 16.6 16.5 13.5 8.4 3.8 1.0
Dayton 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.5 6.3 9.9 13.2 15.6 16.0 13.8 9.8 5.9 2.6 0.8 0.1
George Mason 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.1 9.2 12.3 14.4 15.1 13.8 10.8 6.7 3.3 1.3 0.3
George Washington 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.8 9.3 13.0 15.8 16.3 14.4 10.3 6.0 2.8 0.8 0.1
Richmond 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.6 6.4 9.7 12.8 14.4 14.5 12.8 9.7 6.7 3.7 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.1 7.6 10.6 13.0 15.1 15.0 12.4 8.9 5.8 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.4 7.7 11.1 13.4 15.0 14.3 12.0 8.5 5.5 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Davidson 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.4 8.6 11.6 13.9 15.0 14.0 11.2 7.8 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 6.9 10.1 13.0 14.7 14.5 12.7 9.0 6.3 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.2 9.1 12.5 15.0 15.8 13.9 10.4 7.2 4.1 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 6 - 12 0.4 2.3 5.7 10.0 14.3 16.5 15.8 12.9 9.5 6.0 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
La Salle 4 - 14 1.8 6.1 11.9 16.4 17.5 16.0 12.2 8.2 5.1 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 4 - 14 3.1 9.9 16.7 19.3 17.6 13.5 9.7 5.5 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 44.3% 30.5 10.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 31.6% 20.4 8.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Dayton 12.8% 6.8 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
George Mason 14.3% 7.8 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
George Washington 11.9% 6.3 3.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Richmond 4.0% 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 2.7% 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 2.9% 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 2.3% 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 0.9% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 45.6% 29.8% 15.7% 11   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.1 5.2 10.0 19.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 54.4 22.4%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.2% 24.6% 9.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.9 3.6 7.1 16.3 2.3 0.1 0.0 65.8 12.8%
Dayton 16.1% 11.5% 4.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.6 9.2 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 83.9 5.2%
George Mason 14.5% 10.9% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.0 8.5 2.2 0.1 0.0 85.5 4.0%
George Washington 10.7% 9.7% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 5.8 3.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 89.4 1.0%
Richmond 5.1% 4.3% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 94.9 0.8%
St. Bonaventure 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 97.0 0.2%
Rhode Island 2.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.2 0.1%
Davidson 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.0 0.1%
Duquesne 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 45.6% 8.0% 42.0% 19.0% 5.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.2% 4.9% 31.9% 13.3% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Dayton 16.1% 2.9% 14.6% 4.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 14.5% 2.4% 13.3% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 10.7% 0.7% 10.3% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 5.1% 0.6% 4.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 3.0% 0.1% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.8% 0.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.2% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 67.0 30.4 2.5 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 75.1 23.7 1.2 0.0
2nd Round 42.2% 0.5 57.8 38.4 3.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 11.2% 0.1 88.9 10.9 0.3
Elite Eight 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4 0.0
Final Four 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0