Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
26 Saint Louis 88.6%   9   19 - 1 8 - 0 +15.3      +7.3 47 +8.0 19 76.3 28 +18.7 17 +20.6 1
51 Virginia Commonwealth 27.4%   15 - 6 6 - 2 +10.4      +7.4 45 +3.0 91 71.4 112 +10.2 59 +11.2 3
65 George Washington 10.1%   12 - 8 4 - 4 +8.5      +6.7 49 +1.8 113 73.4 63 +3.5 115 +3.1 9
86 Dayton 5.5%   14 - 7 5 - 3 +6.7      +0.9 137 +5.8 45 68.8 181 +5.9 87 +3.1 8
87 George Mason 8.8%   17 - 2 6 - 1 +6.5      +4.5 75 +2.0 110 63.1 325 +12.5 45 +12.7 2
111 Rhode Island 1.8%   13 - 8 4 - 4 +3.7      +0.3 152 +3.4 82 65.9 263 +3.8 105 +3.8 7
116 Duquesne 1.2%   9 - 9 3 - 4 +3.1      +1.5 130 +1.6 117 75.4 36 -0.2 165 +2.4 10
121 Richmond 0.8%   12 - 9 3 - 6 +2.8      +2.3 112 +0.4 153 68.4 194 +1.3 141 -0.1 11
133 Davidson 0.8%   11 - 7 4 - 3 +1.6      +0.2 154 +1.4 121 63.0 328 +4.3 100 +3.9 6
137 Saint Joseph's 0.8%   11 - 8 5 - 3 +1.3      -1.7 216 +3.1 90 69.5 163 +2.7 122 +7.3 4
150 St. Bonaventure 0.3%   11 - 8 1 - 6 +0.6      +2.3 114 -1.6 228 66.1 257 +1.1 145 -10.8 14
198 Fordham 0.1%   7 - 10 1 - 6 -2.3      -3.0 259 +0.7 141 63.0 327 -7.2 281 -5.5 12
200 La Salle 0.1%   6 - 13 3 - 4 -2.6      -1.6 212 -1.0 206 64.2 305 -2.0 202 +4.2 5
281 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   5 - 17 1 - 8 -7.0      -2.6 241 -4.3 299 66.4 252 -9.6 320 -8.1 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 133 Davidson 69 51 Virginia Commonwealth 75   
Sat, Jan 24 87 George Mason 65 111 Rhode Island 74   
Sat, Jan 24 86 Dayton 74 137 Saint Joseph's 81   
Sat, Jan 24 116 Duquesne 71 281 Loyola Chicago 59   
Sat, Jan 24 65 George Washington 85 121 Richmond 69   
Tue, Jan 27 65 George Washington 76 26 Saint Louis 79   
Tue, Jan 27 86 Dayton 76 111 Rhode Island 81   
Tue, Jan 27 121 Richmond 69 51 Virginia Commonwealth 77   
Tue, Jan 27 281 Loyola Chicago 64 137 Saint Joseph's 85   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 150 St. Bonaventure 75 116 Duquesne 80 70%   
Wed, Jan 28 133 Davidson 64 87 George Mason 72 77%   
Wed, Jan 28 198 Fordham 68 200 La Salle 65 62%   
Fri, Jan 30 86 Dayton 69 26 Saint Louis 81 86%   
Fri, Jan 30 281 Loyola Chicago 67 51 Virginia Commonwealth 87 96%   
Sat, Jan 31 133 Davidson 69 121 Richmond 73 66%   
Sat, Jan 31 87 George Mason 74 150 St. Bonaventure 71 61%   
Sat, Jan 31 200 La Salle 69 137 Saint Joseph's 70 53%   
Sat, Jan 31 198 Fordham 67 65 George Washington 81 90%   
Sun, Feb 1 111 Rhode Island 73 116 Duquesne 75 60%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 1.0 96.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.5 6.8 57.8 22.8 7.7 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Washington 4.3 0.2 13.8 23.8 25.8 15.1 9.4 5.8 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Dayton 5.9 0.3 4.2 9.3 14.1 17.7 16.8 14.2 10.9 7.0 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.0
George Mason 3.2 4.4 34.2 29.6 14.7 8.1 4.3 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 6.5 0.0 1.7 6.5 12.7 16.6 16.2 14.9 12.1 9.1 5.7 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.0
Duquesne 7.9 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.4 9.2 11.3 12.6 14.7 15.8 13.1 8.2 4.4 1.2 0.1
Richmond 8.8 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.3 7.8 10.6 13.6 16.9 19.6 13.8 7.1 1.8 0.1
Davidson 6.9 0.0 1.6 5.4 10.0 13.7 14.8 14.6 14.4 11.1 8.2 4.2 1.6 0.3
Saint Joseph's 5.6 0.1 4.8 11.9 16.2 18.3 15.8 13.2 9.5 5.6 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
St. Bonaventure 11.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.8 6.8 11.2 16.8 27.1 25.6 4.2
Fordham 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.7 5.1 10.3 17.2 26.0 30.1 6.3
La Salle 10.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.3 8.0 12.2 19.0 23.0 16.7 8.0 0.7
Loyola Chicago 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 5.5 20.3 72.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 17 - 1 28 - 2 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 13.0 26.3 33.7 21.6
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 22 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.0 8.7 18.7 26.9 25.4 13.7 2.8
George Washington 11 - 7 19 - 11 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.0 9.8 18.4 25.0 23.9 14.3 3.3
Dayton 10 - 8 19 - 12 0.2 1.5 6.2 14.3 22.4 24.1 18.2 9.3 3.0 0.7 0.1
George Mason 12 - 6 23 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.0 9.8 16.9 22.0 20.8 15.3 7.2 2.2 0.3
Rhode Island 9 - 9 18 - 13 0.1 0.8 3.4 8.8 16.9 23.2 22.4 15.3 6.7 2.1 0.2
Duquesne 8 - 10 14 - 15 0.1 1.0 4.1 10.8 17.5 22.1 20.4 14.2 7.0 2.4 0.5 0.0
Richmond 8 - 10 17 - 13 0.3 2.5 7.9 16.3 22.9 22.4 16.5 8.4 2.5 0.4
Davidson 9 - 9 16 - 13 0.2 1.3 5.0 11.9 19.3 23.1 19.4 12.1 5.6 1.8 0.4 0.0
Saint Joseph's 10 - 8 16 - 13 0.2 1.3 5.1 12.4 20.4 24.1 19.2 11.3 4.7 1.2 0.1
St. Bonaventure 5 - 13 15 - 15 0.8 4.6 11.2 18.6 22.1 19.1 13.4 6.7 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
Fordham 5 - 13 11 - 17 0.8 5.0 13.1 21.3 23.7 18.6 10.8 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.0
La Salle 7 - 11 10 - 20 2.0 8.8 17.5 23.6 21.5 14.6 7.9 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Loyola Chicago 2 - 16 6 - 25 20.7 35.7 27.6 11.9 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 96.1% 89.1 6.4 0.6 0.1
Virginia Commonwealth 6.8% 2.2 4.0 0.6 0.1
George Washington 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Dayton 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Mason 4.4% 1.4 2.4 0.6 0.0
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0
Richmond
Davidson 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure
Fordham
La Salle
Loyola Chicago


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 88.6% 52.8% 35.7% 9   0.2 0.4 1.6 4.4 6.1 9.0 12.2 13.8 16.7 15.6 8.5 0.0 11.5 75.7%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.4% 19.5% 7.9% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 3.9 20.1 1.4 0.0 72.6 9.8%
George Washington 10.1% 9.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.1 3.3 0.2 0.0 89.9 0.2%
Dayton 5.5% 4.9% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 94.5 0.6%
George Mason 8.8% 7.1% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.5 1.6 0.0 91.2 1.8%
Rhode Island 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.2 0.0%
Duquesne 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.8 0.0%
Richmond 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2 0.0%
Davidson 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 56.2 41.6 2.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 0.0 62.4 36.6 1.1
2nd Round 59.3% 0.6 40.7 54.0 5.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 19.2% 0.2 80.8 19.0 0.3
Elite Eight 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8 0.0
Final Four 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Final Game 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 88.6% 6.7% 85.8% 51.7% 17.0% 6.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.4% 6.5% 24.2% 7.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 10.1% 0.2% 10.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 5.5% 0.5% 5.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 8.8% 1.5% 7.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%