Fordham
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #198
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #281
Pace 63.0 #327
Improvement +3.1 #51

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #259 C- C D+ F C
Defense #141 C+ B- D B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #174 1.11 #231 -0.7 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #153 0.95 #13 +2.6 #61
Three Pointers 40% #214 0.84 #354 -4.3 #319
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #246 -2.5 #248
Freethrows 0.20 #363 69% #297 0.14 #363
Second Chance 35.7% #47 0.91 #331 0.32 #160
Turnovers 17.8% #266
Total Offense -3.0 #259

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #310 1.15 #169 +2.9 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #56 0.68 #64 -0.8 #238
Three Pointers 41% #174 1.00 #159 +0.2 #169
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #110 +2.3 #110
Freethrows 0.24 #28 73% #217 0.17 #31
Second Chance 27.2% #65 1.05 #186 0.28 #96
Turnovers 14.2% #312
Total Defense +0.7 #141

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #207 -1.8% #51
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #254 -2.8% #128
Possession Length 19.4 #342 17.1 #136
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #237 0.15 #94
Improvement +0.9 #135 +2.2 #58

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.9 14.5
.500 or above 4.0% 5.8% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 2.7% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 9.0% 25.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 338 NJIT L 61 - 72 87% -5  0 - 1 -25 -12 F C B- -14 F B D+
 Tue, Nov 11 324 Wagner W 63 - 61 84% -2  1 - 1 -11 -7 F C B- -3 A- D D+
 Fri, Nov 14 227 @Iona L 71 - 76 44% +0  1 - 2 -6 +0 F A- C -6 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 224 LIU Brooklyn W 69 - 53 67% +11  2 - 2 +9 -3 B- F B +13 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 309 Albany W 88 - 68 73% +11  3 - 2 +11 +14 B+ A+ F -2 B+ D+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 209 Colgate L 62 - 72 52% -9  3 - 3 -13 -8 D- C F -6 D+ B C
 Sat, Dec 6 326 Holy Cross L 69 - 70 85% +7  3 - 4 -14 -4 D+ C D+ -10 C- F C
 Wed, Dec 10 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 54 88% +11  4 - 4 +6 -0 C B F+ +8 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 327 Manhattan W 82 - 53 85% +11  5 - 4 +16 +7 B- C D +11 A+ C+ D+
 Mon, Dec 22 333 New Haven W 65 - 47 86% +5  6 - 4 +4 -5 C- B F +11 B A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 86 @Dayton L 56 - 63 13% -5  6 - 5 0 - 1 +3 -3 D+ D+ C- +5 A+ F D-
 Sun, Jan 4 121 Richmond L 75 - 83 42% -2  6 - 6 0 - 2 -8 +8 C+ A- F -17 D D+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 87 George Mason L 58 - 67 29% -1  6 - 7 0 - 3 -5 -7 D- C- C+ +1 A B+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 150 @St. Bonaventure W 81 - 77 28% +2  7 - 7 1 - 3 +8 +12 A- F B+ -4 D+ D- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 26 @Saint Louis L 56 - 78 4% -12  7 - 8 1 - 4 -4 +1 C- D B -8 C D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 116 Duquesne L 63 - 74 41% -6  7 - 9 1 - 5 -11 -11 F C D+ -0 C+ A- C
 Wed, Jan 21 133 @Davidson L 63 - 68 25% +1  7 - 10 1 - 6 -0 -2 B+ C+ F +1 B B+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 200 La Salle W 68 - 65 62%
 Sat, Jan 31 65 @George Washington L 67 - 81 10%
 Tue, Feb 3 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 67 - 77 18%
 Sat, Feb 7 150 St. Bonaventure W 70 - 69 50%
 Tue, Feb 10 137 @Saint Joseph's L 64 - 71 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 111 @Rhode Island L 62 - 71 20%
 Wed, Feb 18 281 Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 133 Davidson L 65 - 66 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 64 - 80 7%
 Wed, Mar 4 200 @La Salle L 65 - 68 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 111 Rhode Island L 65 - 68 39%
Totals 11 - 17 5 - 13 -2 -3 C- C D+ +1 C+ B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.1 1.6 0.1 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 4.4 5.0 0.4 10.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 5.6 8.9 2.0 0.0 17.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 7.6 12.3 4.5 0.2 26.0 12th
13th 2.2 9.6 12.6 5.3 0.4 0.0 30.1 13th
14th 0.8 2.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.3 14th
Total 0.8 5.0 13.1 21.3 23.7 18.6 10.8 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.3
9-9 1.5% 1.5
8-10 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 4.8
7-11 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 10.8
6-12 18.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 18.6
5-13 23.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.7
4-14 21.3% 21.3
3-15 13.1% 13.1
2-16 5.0% 5.0
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.8 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%