IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+6.5	#87
Expected Predictive Rating	+12.5	#45

Pace	63.1	#325
Improvement	-3.2	#316

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#75	B-	C	B	A	C
Defense	#110	C+	B+	C-	B	B-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	40%	#150	1.29	#59	+3.3	#75
2 Pt. Jumpers	22%	#141	0.77	#146	+0.9	#129
Three Pointers	38%	#245	1.02	#180	-1.4	#231
1st FG Attempt			1.07	#100	+2.7	#101
Freethrows	0.39	#5	73%	#157	0.29	#7
Second Chance	31.1%	#162	1.04	#187	0.32	#163
Turnovers					14.5%	#70
Total Offense					+4.5	#75

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	35%	#284	1.19	#220	+1.5	#123
2 Pt. Jumpers	24%	#76	0.63	#21	+0.1	#177
Three Pointers	41%	#184	1.00	#158	+0.3	#163
1st FG Attempt			0.98	#118	+2.0	#121
Freethrows	0.25	#39	73%	#226	0.18	#47
Second Chance	25.9%	#36	0.93	#49	0.24	#27
Turnovers					15.3%	#242
Total Defense					+2.0	#110

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-0.3%	#209	-1.4%	#69
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	5.7%	#86	-2.6%	#134
Possession Length	18.7	#304	17.7	#247
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.15	#233	0.14	#83
Improvement	-0.3	#199	-2.9	#328

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.8%	9.4%	6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.8%	2.1%	0.7%
Average Seed	11.1	11.1	11.2

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	98.6%	99.5%	95.3%
Conference Champion	4.4%	5.1%	1.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	1.5%	1.8%	0.6%
First Round	7.9%	8.3%	6.2%
Second Round	1.5%	1.6%	1.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Home) - 77.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 2	3 - 3	4 - 6
Quad 3	10 - 2	14 - 8
Quad 4	10 - 0	24 - 8

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	211 Wofford	W	70 - 46	88%	+9	1 - 0		+18	-3	D+	C+	D-	+23	A+	A-	A+
Fri, Nov 7	124 Winthrop	W	96 - 90	76%	+0	2 - 0		+5	+13	A+	D+	D+	-9	D	A+	F
Sat, Nov 15	319 New Hampshire	W	61 - 44	95%	+7	3 - 0		+4	-12	F	C	F+	+18	A+	C-	A+
Tue, Nov 18	283 Jacksonville	W	79 - 57	93%	+12	4 - 0		+12	+8	A+	F	F	+6	B-	B	A+
Mon, Nov 24	214 Ohio	W	92 - 69	82%	+20	5 - 0		+20	+21	A-	B	A+	-1	C	D	B-
Tue, Nov 25	102 Florida Atlantic	W	74 - 65	56%	+11	6 - 0		+14	+17	A+	C-	A+	-1	C	A+	C-
Sat, Nov 29	210 James Madison	W	82 - 66	88%	+1	7 - 0		+10	+9	A	F+	D-	+2	A-	C+	F
Tue, Dec 2	176 Cornell	W	99 - 81	84%	+5	8 - 0		+14	+14	A+	F+	D	-1	D	A	C
Sat, Dec 6	60 @Virginia Tech	L	62 - 73	29%	-10	8 - 1		+1	+1	C	B	F	-0	D+	A+	C
Sat, Dec 13	232 Old Dominion	W	73 - 61	89%	+10	9 - 1		+5	-4	D	D-	C-	+8	B+	D+	A+
Sun, Dec 21	323 Loyola Maryland	W	86 - 79	95%	-1	10 - 1		-6	+9	D-	C+	A-	-15	C-	F	D-
Sun, Dec 28	193 Penn	W	83 - 79	86%	+3	11 - 1		-1	+9	B-	B+	A+	-10	F	A-	F
Wed, Dec 31	200 @La Salle	W	80 - 75	72%	-5	12 - 1	1 - 0	+5	+17	F+	A+	A+	-11	C	B	F
Sat, Jan 3	111 Rhode Island	W	61 - 50	71%	+4	13 - 1	2 - 0	+12	-2	C+	F+	A+	+15	A-	A+	B-
Wed, Jan 7	198 @Fordham	W	67 - 58	71%	+1	14 - 1	3 - 0	+10	+4	D+	C-	C	+6	B+	A	D-
Sat, Jan 10	51 Virginia Commonwealth	W	86 - 80	46%	+1	15 - 1	4 - 0	+13	+19	B+	A-	A+	-5	C	C+	D
Tue, Jan 13	281 @Loyola Chicago	W	82 - 74	84%	-3	16 - 1	5 - 0	+4	+15	C+	A+	C+	-10	F+	D	F+
Mon, Jan 19	65 George Washington	W	69 - 64	54%	+1	17 - 1	6 - 0	+11	-1	B	C	D+	+12	A+	A+	C+
Sat, Jan 24	111 @Rhode Island	L	65 - 74	50%	-5	17 - 2	6 - 1	-2	+8	C	C	A+	-12	C+	B-	F
Wed, Jan 28	133 Davidson	W	72 - 64	78%
Sat, Jan 31	150 @St. Bonaventure	W	74 - 71	61%
Wed, Feb 4	116 Duquesne	W	78 - 72	73%
Sat, Feb 7	137 Saint Joseph's	W	74 - 66	78%
Tue, Feb 10	121 @Richmond	W	73 - 72	53%
Fri, Feb 13	65 @George Washington	L	74 - 79	32%
Wed, Feb 18	86 Dayton	W	71 - 68	60%
Wed, Feb 25	137 @Saint Joseph's	W	71 - 69	58%
Sat, Feb 28	150 St. Bonaventure	W	77 - 68	80%
Tue, Mar 3	51 @Virginia Commonwealth	L	72 - 79	26%
Sat, Mar 7	26 Saint Louis	L	72 - 78	30%
Totals						23 - 7	12 - 6	+7	+5	B-	C	B	+2	C+	B+	C-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st														0.1	0.8	1.8	1.4	0.3		4.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	3.9	11.4	12.6	5.3	0.8			34.2	2nd
3rd											0.2	4.7	13.5	9.0	2.0	0.1				29.6	3rd
4th										0.0	1.9	8.1	4.4	0.2						14.7	4th
5th										0.3	4.2	3.5	0.2							8.1	5th
6th									0.0	1.1	2.7	0.4								4.3	6th
7th									0.1	1.8	0.7	0.0								2.6	7th
8th								0.0	0.5	0.7	0.0									1.3	8th
9th								0.1	0.5	0.1										0.6	9th
10th							0.0	0.1	0.1											0.2	10th
11th							0.0	0.0												0.0	11th
12th							0.0	0.0												0.0	12th
13th																					13th
14th																					14th

Total							0.0	0.3	1.1	4.0	9.8	16.9	22.0	20.8	15.3	7.2	2.2	0.3			Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.3	0.2	0.1
16-2	63.4%	1.4	0.6	0.8	0.0
15-3	24.7%	1.8	0.5	1.1	0.2
14-4	5.3%	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.0
13-5	0.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.4%	4.4	1.4	2.4	0.6	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.3%	35.2%	9.3%	25.9%	9.5						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1						0.2	28.6%
16-2	2.2%	30.4%	15.6%	14.7%	10.5							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4						1.6	17.5%
15-3	7.2%	18.0%	10.6%	7.4%	10.8									0.0	0.2	1.0	0.1					5.9	8.3%
14-4	15.3%	13.0%	9.8%	3.2%	11.0									0.0	0.1	1.7	0.2					13.3	3.5%
13-5	20.8%	9.7%	8.9%	0.8%	11.2										0.0	1.6	0.3	0.0				18.8	0.9%
12-6	22.0%	7.6%	7.3%	0.3%	11.3										0.0	1.2	0.5					20.3	0.4%
11-7	16.9%	4.5%	4.4%	0.1%	11.5											0.4	0.4					16.2	0.1%
10-8	9.8%	2.0%	2.0%		11.6											0.1	0.1	0.0				9.6
9-9	4.0%	0.9%	0.9%		11.6											0.0	0.0					4.0
8-10	1.1%	1.3%	1.3%		12.7												0.0	0.0				1.1
7-11	0.3%	3.8%	3.8%		12.0												0.0					0.3
6-12	0.0%																					0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	8.8%	7.1%	1.7%	11.1																	91.2	1.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	19.0%	10.0								4.8		4.8	9.5