Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#42
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#45
Pace76.9#32
Improvement-1.4#281

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#57
First Shot+6.9#26
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#239
Layup/Dunks+7.8#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#105
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement+0.4#138

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#39
First Shot+2.0#107
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#10
Layups/Dunks+7.1#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#228
Freethrows-2.0#301
Improvement-1.9#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.5% 3.7% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.6% 46.2% 30.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.4% 23.0% 11.0%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 98.7% 97.1%
Conference Champion 44.3% 44.8% 32.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.0% 8.1% 5.2%
First Round42.0% 42.6% 27.7%
Second Round19.0% 19.4% 8.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 5.4% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.7% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 26 - 37 - 4
Quad 38 - 115 - 6
Quad 412 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 217 Southeast Missouri St. W 92-67 94%     1 - 0 +18.6 +8.6 +7.7
  Thu, Nov 6 350 Chicago St. W 108-86 99%     2 - 0 +6.4 +7.2 -4.8
  Mon, Nov 10 237 Lindenwood W 109-66 95%     3 - 0 +35.8 +19.3 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 15 91 Grand Canyon W 78-64 80%     4 - 0 +16.7 +3.4 +12.4
  Fri, Nov 21 220 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-60 94%     5 - 0 +24.6 +13.0 +11.4
  Thu, Nov 27 73 Santa Clara W 71-70 65%     6 - 0 +8.7 +0.0 +8.7
  Fri, Nov 28 93 Stanford L 77-78 72%     6 - 1 +4.6 +4.2 +0.5
  Tue, Dec 2 134 @Loyola Marymount W 91-70 75%     7 - 1 +25.7 +15.0 +8.8
  Sun, Dec 7 322 Central Michigan W 107-65 98%     8 - 1 +29.4 +28.6 +1.3
  Sat, Dec 13 96 San Francisco W 85-75 81%     9 - 1 +12.4 +12.7 -0.3
  Wed, Dec 17 223 Bethune-Cookman W 86-68 96%    
  Sun, Dec 21 335 New Hampshire W 88-63 99%    
  Wed, Dec 31 171 Saint Joseph's W 84-68 93%    
  Wed, Jan 7 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 77-79 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 238 @La Salle W 80-67 89%    
  Wed, Jan 14 198 Fordham W 81-64 94%    
  Sat, Jan 17 102 Richmond W 85-75 82%    
  Tue, Jan 20 137 @Duquesne W 86-79 74%    
  Fri, Jan 23 113 @St. Bonaventure W 78-73 68%    
  Tue, Jan 27 81 George Washington W 87-80 75%    
  Fri, Jan 30 72 Dayton W 81-74 73%    
  Tue, Feb 3 128 @Davidson W 78-72 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 238 La Salle W 83-64 95%    
  Fri, Feb 13 263 @Loyola Chicago W 83-69 90%    
  Tue, Feb 17 116 @Rhode Island W 79-74 69%    
  Fri, Feb 20 48 Virginia Commonwealth W 80-76 63%    
  Tue, Feb 24 72 @Dayton W 78-77 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 137 Duquesne W 89-76 88%    
  Wed, Mar 4 263 Loyola Chicago W 86-66 96%    
  Sat, Mar 7 75 @George Mason W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.3 8.0 13.6 12.0 6.5 1.8 44.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.8 7.2 8.9 3.9 0.6 0.0 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.0 5.5 1.6 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.8 1.0 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.5 1.1 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 7.5 12.0 16.0 18.5 17.6 12.5 6.5 1.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 99.7% 6.5    6.4 0.1
16-2 95.4% 12.0    10.3 1.6 0.0
15-3 77.4% 13.6    8.8 4.3 0.5 0.0
14-4 43.3% 8.0    2.9 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.1% 2.3    0.3 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.3% 44.3 30.5 10.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 97.3% 57.5% 39.8% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.7%
17-1 6.5% 89.3% 48.8% 40.5% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.7 79.1%
16-2 12.5% 76.3% 42.1% 34.2% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.1 3.0 1.8 0.0 3.0 59.0%
15-3 17.6% 59.5% 35.8% 23.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.5 4.8 0.1 7.1 36.9%
14-4 18.5% 45.5% 31.5% 14.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.5 0.3 10.1 20.4%
13-5 16.0% 32.0% 26.0% 6.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.0 0.5 10.9 8.2%
12-6 12.0% 23.0% 20.5% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 2.1 0.5 9.2 3.1%
11-7 7.5% 13.9% 13.1% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 6.5 0.9%
10-8 4.1% 11.1% 10.8% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.7 0.4%
9-9 2.1% 7.5% 7.5% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
8-10 0.9% 4.9% 4.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.3% 5.9% 5.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 2.6% 2.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.6% 29.8% 15.7% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.1 5.2 10.0 19.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 54.4 22.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 3.7 3.7 14.2 22.6 35.1 15.9 7.4 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 98.8% 6.2 2.4 17.9 11.9 22.6 25.0 8.3 9.5 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 93.7% 6.7 1.3 3.8 11.4 25.3 29.1 12.7 5.1 3.8 1.3