Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.3 #26
Expected Predictive Rating +18.7 #17
Pace 76.3 #28
Improvement -0.9 #231

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #47 A+ C+ C+ C A+
Defense #19 A A- C- D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #16 1.29 #52 +7.7 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 6% #365 0.78 #142 -5.5 #363
Three Pointers 48% #51 1.23 #5 +8.4 #7
1st FG Attempt 1.23 #1 +10.6 #1
Freethrows 0.29 #227 73% #167 0.21 #208
Second Chance 34.0% #86 1.00 #236 0.34 #131
Turnovers 15.8% #141
Total Offense +7.3 #47

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #295 0.99 #19 +5.3 #35
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #67 0.70 #84 -0.7 #236
Three Pointers 41% #187 0.84 #12 +3.6 #46
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #5 +8.2 #5
Freethrows 0.33 #285 73% #215 0.24 #288
Second Chance 25.1% #25 0.90 #28 0.23 #12
Turnovers 15.3% #244
Total Defense +8.0 #19

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.8% #3 -1.5% #62
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.3% #12 -14.7% #5
Possession Length 14.8 #10 18.1 #293
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #7 0.16 #158
Improvement -1.7 #269 +0.7 #150

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.6% 7.5% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 21.7% 24.2% 5.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.6% 89.4% 82.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.7% 77.3% 67.0%
Average Seed 8.0 7.8 9.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 96.1% 97.1% 90.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.7% 6.0% 10.9%
First Round85.8% 86.9% 78.5%
Second Round51.7% 53.4% 40.6%
Sweet Sixteen17.0% 17.9% 11.1%
Elite Eight6.3% 6.7% 4.1%
Final Four2.2% 2.4% 0.9%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Home) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 02 - 1
Quad 26 - 28 - 3
Quad 310 - 019 - 3
Quad 411 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 92 - 67 97% +10  1 - 0 +17 +9 B C- D+ +6 A- A+ F+
 Thu, Nov 6 358 Chicago St. W 108 - 86 99% +13  2 - 0 +4 +7 A+ F C+ -7 C D C+
 Mon, Nov 10 247 Lindenwood W 109 - 66 97% +22  3 - 0 +35 +19 A+ A+ F +10 C C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 71 Grand Canyon W 78 - 64 84% +11  4 - 0 +19 +6 A+ C F +12 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 218 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91 - 60 97% +19  5 - 0 +25 +14 A+ C- D- +10 A+ C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 27 50 Santa Clara W 71 - 70 68% -3  6 - 0 +12 +2 B- D- A+ +10 A+ A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 84 Stanford L 77 - 78 79% +6  6 - 1 +6 +6 F+ A- A +0 B+ A- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 155 @Loyola Marymount W 91 - 70 87% +12  7 - 1 +24 +14 A+ A+ F +8 B+ B C+
 Sun, Dec 7 304 Central Michigan W 107 - 65 98% +23  8 - 1 +31 +30 A+ A+ A+ +1 C B B-
 Sat, Dec 13 98 San Francisco W 85 - 75 88% +1  9 - 1 +12 +13 A C- C+ -1 B- A D
 Wed, Dec 17 248 Bethune-Cookman W 112 - 53 97% +31  10 - 1 +51 +25 A+ A+ D +21 A+ B+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 319 New Hampshire W 93 - 79 99% +3  11 - 1 +1 +11 B C- A- -10 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 137 Saint Joseph's W 102 - 79 93% +12  12 - 1 1 - 0 +21 +38 A+ D+ A -15 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 51 @Virginia Commonwealth W 71 - 62 57% +6  13 - 1 2 - 0 +22 -4 D+ F B- +25 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 200 @La Salle W 84 - 72 91% +12  14 - 1 3 - 0 +12 +15 A+ D+ F+ -2 B B+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 198 Fordham W 78 - 56 96% +12  15 - 1 4 - 0 +17 +16 A+ B+ A +4 A- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 121 Richmond W 88 - 63 92% +19  16 - 1 5 - 0 +25 +15 A D+ A- +10 A+ D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 20 116 @Duquesne W 81 - 77 81% +5  17 - 1 6 - 0 +10 +4 B- B+ F+ +6 A+ D C
 Fri, Jan 23 150 @St. Bonaventure W 97 - 62 86% +25  18 - 1 7 - 0 +39 +24 A+ C+ B +15 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 65 George Washington W 79 - 76 82% -5  19 - 1 8 - 0 +9 +1 B- C C- +8 A- A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 30 86 Dayton W 81 - 69 86%
 Tue, Feb 3 133 @Davidson W 79 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 200 La Salle W 85 - 64 97%
 Fri, Feb 13 281 @Loyola Chicago W 86 - 67 96%
 Tue, Feb 17 111 @Rhode Island W 79 - 70 79%
 Fri, Feb 20 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 77 76%
 Tue, Feb 24 86 @Dayton W 78 - 72 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 116 Duquesne W 89 - 74 92%
 Wed, Mar 4 281 Loyola Chicago W 89 - 64 99%
 Sat, Mar 7 87 @George Mason W 78 - 72 70%
Totals 28 - 2 17 - 1 +15 +7 A+ C+ C+ +8 A A- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.6 11.7 26.2 33.7 21.6 96.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.1 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 13.0 26.3 33.7 21.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 21.6    21.6
17-1 100.0% 33.7    33.6 0.1
16-2 99.8% 26.2    24.5 1.8 0.0
15-3 90.3% 11.7    8.4 3.2 0.2
14-4 62.8% 2.6    1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 25.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 96.1% 96.1 89.1 6.4 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 21.6% 97.7% 60.3% 37.3% 5.6 0.2 0.4 1.6 3.9 4.3 4.4 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.5 94.1%
17-1 33.7% 92.6% 54.2% 38.4% 7.9 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.9 6.9 7.2 6.6 3.8 0.8 2.5 83.9%
16-2 26.3% 86.0% 50.6% 35.4% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.5 6.7 2.8 3.7 71.7%
15-3 13.0% 79.0% 47.5% 31.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.8 3.0 2.7 60.0%
14-4 4.1% 65.2% 39.5% 25.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.0 1.4 42.4%
13-5 1.1% 54.4% 33.6% 20.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 31.3%
12-6 0.2% 40.0% 26.7% 13.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18.2%
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.6% 52.8% 35.7% 8.0 11.5 75.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.0% 100.0% 4.7 1.3 3.3 11.9 28.6 26.9 20.4 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6% 95.4% 6.9 0.4 3.1 11.8 20.2 28.4 18.7 9.4 2.8 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9% 93.0% 7.0 0.2 2.4 8.1 22.2 27.3 21.0 9.3 2.6