Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.6 #133
Expected Predictive Rating +4.3 #100
Pace 63.0 #328
Improvement -2.7 #301

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #154 B- C C C- C
Defense #121 C+ B- C+ B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.15 #179 -2.2 #261
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #198 0.95 #12 +1.6 #94
Three Pointers 46% #89 1.11 #58 +4.5 #48
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #72 +3.8 #72
Freethrows 0.30 #184 67% #331 0.20 #236
Second Chance 30.2% #197 1.03 #208 0.31 #192
Turnovers 16.3% #170
Total Offense +0.2 #154

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #237 1.17 #194 +0.9 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #15 0.83 #297 -4.0 #361
Three Pointers 35% #336 0.93 #74 +4.6 #25
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #135 +1.4 #135
Freethrows 0.28 #113 66% #4 0.18 #58
Second Chance 28.1% #92 1.00 #117 0.28 #92
Turnovers 17.1% #140
Total Defense +1.4 #121

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #205 -2.2% #29
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.7% #65 -0.5% #175
Possession Length 18.1 #259 18.4 #327
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #299 0.16 #157
Improvement -1.7 #276 -1.0 #247

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.8 12.2
.500 or above 83.4% 96.0% 79.8%
.500 or above in Conference 62.3% 84.9% 55.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 22.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 53 - 8
Quad 36 - 59 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 138 Washington St. W 85 - 69 63% +16  1 - 0 +14 +9 A+ C- F +5 A+ D A
 Tue, Nov 11 172 @Charlotte W 62 - 55 48% +10  2 - 0 +9 +1 B+ F+ F +10 A+ A C-
 Sat, Nov 15 147 Bowling Green W 91 - 87 64% +9  3 - 0 +2 +7 A+ D- F+ -6 B D- F+
 Fri, Nov 21 130 Boston College W 59 - 49 49% +3  4 - 0 +12 +3 B D- A- +10 B B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 40 Utah St. L 60 - 94 15% -17  4 - 1 -21 -8 C- C- F -13 F A- A
 Fri, Nov 28 292 N.C. A&T W 90 - 74 87% +9  5 - 1 +6 +17 A A+ B+ -10 F A- D+
 Thu, Dec 4 351 The Citadel W 79 - 63 94% +9  6 - 1 +0 +5 D C+ A- -3 D- B B
 Sun, Dec 7 42 St. Mary's L 61 - 70 24% -1  6 - 2 -0 -2 C+ F+ C +1 C+ B B-
 Sat, Dec 13 306 Mercyhurst W 80 - 47 89% +17  7 - 2 +22 +19 A+ C+ B +9 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 143 Temple L 63 - 68 63% -6  7 - 3 -7 -3 F B+ B -4 B A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 17 @Kansas L 61 - 90 5% -20  7 - 4 -8 -4 B- C+ F -3 F+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 116 Duquesne L 83 - 89 2OT 56% +3  7 - 5 0 - 1 -6 +2 D D A+ -7 B C- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 137 @Saint Joseph's W 62 - 56 40% -5  8 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +3 D A+ F +8 A- C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 281 @Loyola Chicago W 79 - 64 70% +10  9 - 5 2 - 1 +11 +8 A- C D- +4 A D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 111 Rhode Island L 45 - 70 54% -14  9 - 6 2 - 2 -24 -19 F F C- -10 F A+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 65 @George Washington W 84 - 79 18% +9  10 - 6 3 - 2 +17 +19 A+ A B- -2 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 198 Fordham W 68 - 63 75% -1  11 - 6 4 - 2 -0 -1 C+ D+ D +1 F+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 75 29% -0  11 - 7 4 - 3 +1 +7 B+ C A+ -7 C- F A
 Wed, Jan 28 87 @George Mason L 64 - 72 22%
 Sat, Jan 31 121 @Richmond L 69 - 73 35%
 Tue, Feb 3 26 Saint Louis L 68 - 79 16%
 Fri, Feb 6 281 Loyola Chicago W 76 - 64 86%
 Sun, Feb 15 86 @Dayton L 64 - 72 23%
 Wed, Feb 18 121 Richmond W 72 - 70 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 198 @Fordham W 66 - 65 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 116 @Duquesne L 71 - 76 33%
 Sun, Mar 1 200 La Salle W 71 - 64 75%
 Wed, Mar 4 137 Saint Joseph's W 70 - 67 62%
 Sat, Mar 7 150 @St. Bonaventure L 70 - 72 43%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2 +0 B- C C +1 C+ B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.5 2.0 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 7.7 4.2 0.3 13.7 5th
6th 0.4 6.7 6.9 0.7 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.0 3.1 9.2 2.2 0.0 14.6 7th
8th 0.9 8.4 4.9 0.2 14.4 8th
9th 0.2 4.3 6.0 0.6 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 5.2 1.3 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.4 2.4 1.4 0.1 4.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.2 1.3 5.0 11.9 19.3 23.1 19.4 12.1 5.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 33.3% 0.0    0.0
14-4 9.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.4% 4.0% 4.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.8% 4.0% 4.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.7
12-6 5.6% 3.0% 3.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
11-7 12.1% 1.5% 1.5% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.9
10-8 19.4% 0.8% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.3
9-9 23.1% 0.5% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 22.9
8-10 19.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.3
7-11 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 11.9
6-12 5.0% 5.0
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 12.0 99.2 0.0%