St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.6 #150
Expected Predictive Rating +1.1 #145
Pace 66.1 #257
Improvement -5.8 #360

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #114 C+ B- C+ D+ C-
Defense #228 C- C- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.15 #185 +0.9 #145
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #80 0.82 #100 +2.7 #57
Three Pointers 34% #322 1.11 #66 -2.2 #256
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #134 +1.4 #134
Freethrows 0.25 #326 77% #45 0.19 #291
Second Chance 35.1% #57 1.03 #203 0.36 #91
Turnovers 15.7% #137
Total Offense +2.3 #114

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #168 1.19 #214 -1.0 #214
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #133 0.77 #197 -0.6 #228
Three Pointers 39% #241 1.10 #293 -0.6 #207
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #257 -2.2 #257
Freethrows 0.28 #122 80% #364 0.23 #211
Second Chance 29.4% #132 1.15 #305 0.34 #235
Turnovers 16.7% #166
Total Defense -1.6 #228

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #259 -0.2% #146
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.9% #112 4.5% #265
Possession Length 17.5 #189 17.9 #265
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #70 0.19 #236
Improvement -0.6 #208 -5.2 #360

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 57.6% 77.0% 49.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.6% 8.2% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.5% 4.2% 14.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 35 - 68 - 14
Quad 49 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 126 Bradley W 69 - 63 45% +4  1 - 0 +8 +1 D C C +8 D A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 341 Canisius W 89 - 70 92% +7  2 - 0 +4 +20 C A+ B- -14 F B C-
 Wed, Nov 12 173 Siena W 75 - 66 67% -1  3 - 0 +5 +7 C A+ D- -1 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 222 Youngstown St. W 84 - 80 76% -5  4 - 0 -3 +8 A- C F -11 C- F C
 Thu, Nov 20 208 Robert Morris W 75 - 61 73% +4  5 - 0 +8 -1 C C- F +9 A+ B B+
 Tue, Nov 25 29 North Carolina L 70 - 85 10% -11  5 - 1 -0 +1 C+ C B -1 C C- A
 Thu, Nov 27 253 East Carolina W 67 - 58 71% +2  6 - 1 +4 -6 D D+ D- +10 A A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 102 @Florida Atlantic W 70 - 65 24% +2  7 - 1 +13 +7 A+ F+ C- +7 A+ C- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 184 @Buffalo W 77 - 69 48% +7  8 - 1 +9 +5 C+ B+ F +4 D+ D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 209 Colgate W 85 - 77 74% -3  9 - 1 +2 +9 C+ B- D -6 B+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 214 Ohio L 83 - 88 OT 65% -3  9 - 2 -8 +1 D+ A- D -9 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 274 Le Moyne W 92 - 81 83% +1  10 - 2 +2 +16 A- B B -14 C F D
 Wed, Dec 31 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 82 - 89 12% -0  10 - 3 0 - 1 +6 +17 B+ B+ B -10 D+ C- F+
 Wed, Jan 7 121 Richmond L 80 - 89 53% -7  10 - 4 0 - 2 -9 +6 D+ A+ A+ -16 C- F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 198 Fordham L 77 - 81 72% -2  10 - 5 0 - 3 -9 +7 B+ A+ D- -17 F A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 14 137 @Saint Joseph's L 64 - 68 36% -4  10 - 6 0 - 4 +0 -1 F C- C +1 C A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 200 @La Salle L 74 - 78 51% -2  10 - 7 0 - 5 -4 +9 A+ F C- -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 20 281 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 70 84% -3  11 - 7 1 - 5 +4 +7 D+ D+ A+ -3 F A+ A-
 Fri, Jan 23 26 Saint Louis L 62 - 97 14% -25  11 - 8 1 - 6 -23 -5 C- D- C -18 F C- D+
 Wed, Jan 28 116 @Duquesne L 75 - 81 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 87 George Mason L 71 - 74 39%
 Tue, Feb 3 86 @Dayton L 68 - 77 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 198 @Fordham L 69 - 70 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 116 Duquesne W 78 - 77 52%
 Wed, Feb 18 137 Saint Joseph's W 73 - 71 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 121 @Richmond L 73 - 78 31%
 Wed, Feb 25 111 Rhode Island L 71 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 87 @George Mason L 68 - 77 20%
 Wed, Mar 4 65 @George Washington L 74 - 85 16%
 Sat, Mar 7 133 Davidson W 72 - 70 57%
Totals 15 - 15 5 - 13 +1 +2 C+ B- C+ -2 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 0.4 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 4.1 2.2 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 4.3 6.0 0.5 11.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 5.0 8.9 2.3 0.0 16.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 7.9 12.6 5.0 0.3 0.0 27.1 12th
13th 0.2 2.7 8.5 9.9 4.0 0.4 25.6 13th
14th 0.6 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.2 14th
Total 0.8 4.6 11.2 18.6 22.1 19.1 13.4 6.7 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 7.1% 7.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 2.6
8-10 6.7% 0.7% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 6.6
7-11 13.4% 0.4% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.4
6-12 19.1% 0.3% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0
5-13 22.1% 0.2% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.0
4-14 18.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 18.6
3-15 11.2% 11.2
2-16 4.6% 4.6
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.8 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%