Richmond
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.8 #121
Expected Predictive Rating +1.3 #141
Pace 68.4 #194
Improvement -2.9 #309

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #112 B- D+ B- B D-
Defense #153 C+ C- C C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #346 1.25 #88 -3.3 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #35 0.77 #153 +3.4 #36
Three Pointers 40% #190 1.19 #12 +3.1 #80
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #84 +3.3 #84
Freethrows 0.33 #94 76% #73 0.25 #61
Second Chance 27.3% #273 0.96 #297 0.26 #294
Turnovers 15.0% #93
Total Offense +2.3 #112

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #353 1.22 #263 +4.5 #48
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #54 0.78 #214 -2.0 #325
Three Pointers 46% #59 0.92 #67 -0.2 #184
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #107 +2.3 #107
Freethrows 0.28 #120 71% #91 0.20 #107
Second Chance 28.7% #108 1.18 #328 0.34 #238
Turnovers 16.3% #195
Total Defense +0.4 #153

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #343 -2.5% #23
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.0% #42 -2.2% #142
Possession Length 17.2 #150 17.5 #206
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #53 0.15 #102
Improvement -1.7 #275 -1.2 #258

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.3
.500 or above 84.9% 91.7% 72.2%
.500 or above in Conference 27.8% 36.3% 11.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Home) - 65.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 36 - 69 - 13
Quad 48 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 253 East Carolina W 87 - 72 85% +10  1 - 0 +7 +8 B+ F B -2 C C+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 132 William & Mary W 90 - 86 65% +1  2 - 0 +3 +8 F+ A+ C+ -6 B+ D+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 353 VMI W 87 - 54 95% +21  3 - 0 +17 +10 A F+ B +9 C D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 363 Gardner-Webb W 102 - 67 98% +28  4 - 0 +14 +12 B C B- -1 F+ B- B-
 Thu, Nov 27 159 Furman L 72 - 73 60% -6  4 - 1 -1 +1 B- D F -2 C F A-
 Fri, Nov 28 172 Charlotte W 71 - 66 64% +8  5 - 1 +4 +0 C+ D D +4 B+ A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 75 @Belmont W 84 - 76 23% -0  6 - 1 +19 +11 A+ F B- +7 A+ D B
 Sat, Dec 6 232 Old Dominion W 86 - 77 82% +4  7 - 1 +2 +4 C- C+ A+ -3 B+ C+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 145 Southern Illinois W 93 - 84 OT 68% +2  8 - 1 +7 +4 A F B +2 A- D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 192 @Elon L 70 - 73 57% +2  8 - 2 -2 -2 B C F -0 D+ A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 351 The Citadel W 80 - 56 95% +11  9 - 2 +8 +5 B+ F B- +5 C B- A+
 Sun, Dec 28 230 Charleston Southern L 72 - 77 82% -4  9 - 3 -12 -6 C- F C- -6 B D C
 Wed, Dec 31 65 George Washington L 85 - 99 39% -10  9 - 4 0 - 1 -8 +18 A+ D+ A+ -28 F F D+
 Sun, Jan 4 198 @Fordham W 83 - 75 58% +2  10 - 4 1 - 1 +9 +20 A+ C+ A+ -11 D+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 150 @St. Bonaventure W 89 - 80 47% +7  11 - 4 2 - 1 +13 +16 B- B- B -4 A- F F
 Sun, Jan 11 137 Saint Joseph's L 65 - 67 67% -8  11 - 5 2 - 2 -4 -6 F+ F A+ +2 C+ B- C-
 Wed, Jan 14 200 La Salle W 74 - 53 79% +8  12 - 5 3 - 2 +15 +3 B- F A+ +13 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 26 @Saint Louis L 63 - 88 8% -19  12 - 6 3 - 3 -7 +0 D- B B- -7 B- B- D-
 Wed, Jan 21 111 Rhode Island L 68 - 69 58% +2  12 - 7 3 - 4 -0 -2 B F+ B +1 A C- B
 Sat, Jan 24 65 @George Washington L 69 - 85 20% -16  12 - 8 3 - 5 -4 +3 C- D- B- -8 C+ F C
 Tue, Jan 27 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 77 16% -8  12 - 9 3 - 6 +5 +11 C- A+ B -7 C+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 133 Davidson W 73 - 69 65%
 Sat, Feb 7 111 @Rhode Island L 70 - 74 36%
 Tue, Feb 10 87 George Mason L 72 - 73 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 76 - 81 33%
 Wed, Feb 18 133 @Davidson L 70 - 72 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 150 St. Bonaventure W 78 - 73 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 281 @Loyola Chicago W 78 - 71 73%
 Tue, Mar 3 86 Dayton L 72 - 73 47%
 Sat, Mar 7 116 @Duquesne L 77 - 80 38%
Totals 17 - 13 8 - 10 +3 +2 B- D+ B- +0 C+ C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.4 4.6 2.8 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 6.6 0.9 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 8.9 3.5 0.1 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 7.8 7.9 0.6 16.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 6.0 10.9 2.1 0.0 19.6 10th
11th 0.3 3.2 7.4 2.8 0.1 13.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.1 0.2 7.1 12th
13th 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.3 2.5 7.9 16.3 22.9 22.4 16.5 8.4 2.5 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 4.3% 4.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 2.5% 3.4% 3.4% 11.4 0.1 0.0 2.4
10-8 8.4% 1.9% 1.9% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.3
9-9 16.5% 1.4% 1.4% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 16.3
8-10 22.4% 0.7% 0.7% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 22.3
7-11 22.9% 0.4% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.8
6-12 16.3% 0.2% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 16.3
5-13 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 7.9
4-14 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 2.4
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 12.2 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%