Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#72
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#58
Pace69.8#176
Improvement+2.7#34

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#100
First Shot+4.9#58
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#290
Layup/Dunks+4.7#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#202
Freethrows+2.2#67
Improvement+0.2#168

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#53
First Shot+5.5#36
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#244
Layups/Dunks+4.9#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#179
Freethrows+1.1#111
Improvement+2.5#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.1% 17.7% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.2% 6.2% 2.4%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 10.9
.500 or above 98.0% 99.0% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 89.1% 83.5%
Conference Champion 12.8% 14.1% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four2.9% 3.4% 1.6%
First Round14.6% 16.0% 10.4%
Second Round4.5% 5.1% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Home) - 74.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 35 - 8
Quad 38 - 213 - 11
Quad 49 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 339 Canisius W 88-48 97%     1 - 0 +25.9 +19.7 +10.4
  Sat, Nov 8 285 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-71 94%     2 - 0 -3.8 +2.9 -6.4
  Tue, Nov 11 78 @Cincinnati L 62-74 40%     2 - 1 -1.5 -8.7 +8.9
  Sat, Nov 15 223 Bethune-Cookman W 91-82 91%     3 - 1 +2.4 +16.4 -13.9
  Wed, Nov 19 88 @Marquette W 77-71 OT 46%     4 - 1 +14.9 -0.5 +14.6
  Sat, Nov 22 349 NC Central W 74-55 97%     5 - 1 +3.6 +0.0 +4.7
  Thu, Nov 27 101 Georgetown W 84-79 OT 62%     6 - 1 +9.9 +6.8 +2.7
  Fri, Nov 28 9 BYU L 79-83 14%     6 - 2 +15.3 +9.6 +6.0
  Tue, Dec 2 123 East Tennessee St. W 88-71 78%     7 - 2 +16.9 +10.4 +5.6
  Sat, Dec 6 25 Virginia L 73-86 25%     7 - 3 +1.9 +1.5 +1.1
  Sat, Dec 13 344 North Florida W 84-61 97%     8 - 3 +8.4 +3.2 +5.5
  Tue, Dec 16 105 Florida St. W 83-76 74%    
  Sat, Dec 20 108 Liberty W 75-68 75%    
  Wed, Dec 31 198 Fordham W 75-62 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 263 @Loyola Chicago W 77-67 83%    
  Tue, Jan 6 81 George Washington W 80-76 64%    
  Tue, Jan 13 137 @Duquesne W 79-76 62%    
  Fri, Jan 16 263 Loyola Chicago W 80-64 93%    
  Wed, Jan 21 238 @La Salle W 74-65 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 171 @Saint Joseph's W 75-69 71%    
  Tue, Jan 27 116 Rhode Island W 76-68 76%    
  Fri, Jan 30 42 @Saint Louis L 74-81 27%    
  Tue, Feb 3 113 St. Bonaventure W 75-68 75%    
  Fri, Feb 6 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 71-77 29%    
  Sun, Feb 15 128 Davidson W 75-66 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 75 @George Mason L 68-71 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 137 Duquesne W 82-73 80%    
  Tue, Feb 24 42 Saint Louis L 77-78 47%    
  Fri, Feb 27 81 @George Washington L 77-79 41%    
  Tue, Mar 3 102 @Richmond W 75-74 50%    
  Fri, Mar 6 48 Virginia Commonwealth L 73-74 50%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.6 5.1 1.5 0.1 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.4 5.7 1.1 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 5.7 5.9 1.3 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.8 1.6 0.1 12.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 5.2 2.0 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.9 2.5 0.2 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.3 0.3 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.5 6.3 9.9 13.2 15.6 16.0 13.8 9.8 5.9 2.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 95.6% 2.5    2.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 73.8% 4.3    2.5 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 36.9% 3.6    1.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.0% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 6.8 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 51.4% 48.6% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 83.9% 36.4% 47.5% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 74.7%
16-2 2.6% 65.4% 30.6% 34.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.9 50.1%
15-3 5.9% 45.0% 24.3% 20.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.0 3.2 27.3%
14-4 9.8% 32.3% 22.4% 9.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 0.2 6.6 12.7%
13-5 13.8% 22.4% 16.9% 5.5% 11.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 0.2 10.7 6.6%
12-6 16.0% 12.8% 11.5% 1.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 14.0 1.5%
11-7 15.6% 8.4% 7.8% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 14.3 0.6%
10-8 13.2% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 11.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 12.5 0.0%
9-9 9.9% 4.2% 4.2% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.4
8-10 6.3% 2.6% 2.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
7-11 3.5% 1.5% 1.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.1% 11.5% 4.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.6 9.2 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 83.9 5.2%