Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 #86
Expected Predictive Rating +5.9 #87
Pace 68.8 #181
Improvement -2.6 #299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #137 C C C A+ B
Defense #45 C+ B- A+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #58 1.29 #55 +5.7 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #300 0.54 #362 -3.8 #344
Three Pointers 42% #162 0.96 #259 -0.9 #214
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #146 +1.1 #145
Freethrows 0.41 #2 75% #87 0.31 #2
Second Chance 27.0% #277 1.16 #55 0.31 #188
Turnovers 16.1% #159
Total Offense +0.9 #137

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #275 1.05 #55 +3.9 #57
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #64 0.72 #117 -1.1 #269
Three Pointers 40% #208 1.11 #300 -1.5 #254
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #137 +1.3 #136
Freethrows 0.29 #158 70% #70 0.20 #125
Second Chance 30.4% #172 0.95 #55 0.29 #98
Turnovers 22.4% #4
Total Defense +5.8 #45

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #48 -1.5% #64
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #176 -1.1% #166
Possession Length 16.7 #114 17.8 #251
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #76 0.13 #48
Improvement -3.0 #337 +0.3 #168

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 9.9% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.9% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.3
.500 or above 98.8% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 92.9% 75.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 1.4% 0.4%
First Round5.2% 9.0% 4.6%
Second Round1.0% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 13.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 24 - 35 - 9
Quad 36 - 411 - 13
Quad 49 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 341 Canisius W 88 - 48 97% +21  1 - 0 +25 +20 B- A+ A+ +10 B- D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 263 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 71 91% +4  2 - 0 -2 +3 C+ B- C- -5 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 55 @Cincinnati L 62 - 74 28% -9  2 - 1 +1 -8 F D- A- +11 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 248 Bethune-Cookman W 91 - 82 91% +6  3 - 1 +1 +16 A+ B- F -15 C F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 94 @Marquette W 77 - 71 OT 42% +5  4 - 1 +15 -1 A- C F +15 B+ B A+
 Sat, Nov 22 342 NC Central W 74 - 55 97% +19  5 - 1 +4 -2 D- C- A+ +7 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 90 Georgetown W 84 - 79 OT 52% +7  6 - 1 +11 +7 C+ C C +3 D- A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 14 BYU L 79 - 83 13% +0  6 - 2 +15 +9 A+ D+ C- +6 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 129 East Tennessee St. W 88 - 71 77% +10  7 - 2 +16 +10 A+ C+ C- +5 C- C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 22 Virginia L 73 - 86 17% -2  7 - 3 +4 +3 B- F+ B+ +1 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 348 North Florida W 84 - 61 97% +21  8 - 3 +8 -1 B F C +9 A+ D+ A-
 Tue, Dec 16 106 Florida St. W 97 - 69 70% +13  9 - 3 +29 +14 B- C- A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 95 Liberty L 61 - 64 66% +2  9 - 4 -0 -2 D- D+ C+ +1 C+ A- D
 Wed, Dec 31 198 Fordham W 63 - 56 87% +5  10 - 4 1 - 0 +2 -3 F A+ B- +6 B- B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 281 @Loyola Chicago W 70 - 68 84% -6  11 - 4 2 - 0 -2 -3 F C- B+ +1 D C A-
 Tue, Jan 6 65 George Washington W 79 - 72 55% -1  12 - 4 3 - 0 +13 +7 F+ A+ B +5 C- C A+
 Tue, Jan 13 116 @Duquesne W 71 - 65 52% +5  13 - 4 4 - 0 +12 +8 B F+ C+ +5 B A+ C
 Fri, Jan 16 281 Loyola Chicago W 78 - 51 93% +6  14 - 4 5 - 0 +17 +1 B- F F+ +17 A+ B A+
 Wed, Jan 21 200 @La Salle L 64 - 67 73% -9  14 - 5 5 - 1 -3 -3 D- B- F+ -0 C C+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 137 @Saint Joseph's L 74 - 81 59% -3  14 - 6 5 - 2 -3 +1 C- B- F -3 C C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 111 Rhode Island L 76 - 81 OT 72% +3  14 - 7 5 - 3 -4 +0 A+ D- F -4 C+ A- C
 Fri, Jan 30 26 @Saint Louis L 69 - 81 14%
 Tue, Feb 3 150 St. Bonaventure W 77 - 68 80%
 Fri, Feb 6 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 72 - 79 27%
 Sun, Feb 15 133 Davidson W 72 - 64 77%
 Wed, Feb 18 87 @George Mason L 68 - 71 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 116 Duquesne W 78 - 71 73%
 Tue, Feb 24 26 Saint Louis L 72 - 78 30%
 Fri, Feb 27 65 @George Washington L 74 - 79 33%
 Tue, Mar 3 121 @Richmond W 73 - 72 53%
 Fri, Mar 6 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 75 - 76 47%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 8 +7 +1 C C C +6 C+ B- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.2 5.0 0.9 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.1 3.1 8.4 2.5 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 10.1 5.6 0.2 17.7 5th
6th 0.4 7.3 8.3 0.8 16.8 6th
7th 0.0 3.0 8.9 2.3 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.7 6.2 3.9 0.1 10.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 4.1 0.5 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.2 1.5 6.2 14.3 22.4 24.1 18.2 9.3 3.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 85.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 22.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.7% 33.8% 21.5% 12.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 15.7%
13-5 3.0% 21.1% 15.0% 6.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.4 7.2%
12-6 9.3% 12.1% 10.3% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 1.0 0.1 8.2 2.0%
11-7 18.2% 7.4% 7.1% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 1.1 0.3 16.8 0.4%
10-8 24.1% 4.2% 4.2% 0.1% 11.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 23.1 0.1%
9-9 22.4% 3.0% 3.0% 11.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 21.8
8-10 14.3% 2.0% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 14.1
7-11 6.2% 1.1% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
6-12 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.5% 4.9% 0.5% 11.2 94.5 0.6%