Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
167 Lipscomb 26.1%   15   12 - 7 7 - 1 -0.6      -1.2 198 +0.6 147 73.3 65 +1.7 137 +2.7 3
175 Austin Peay 23.9%   11 - 6 7 - 1 -1.2      -2.8 252 +1.6 116 70.7 130 +1.2 142 +4.6 1
186 Queens 20.2%   11 - 9 7 - 1 -1.9      +2.9 98 -4.8 311 70.7 131 -0.7 175 +3.2 2
231 Florida Gulf Coast 7.7%   6 - 13 2 - 6 -4.1      +0.5 147 -4.6 306 69.1 171 -7.4 284 -10.4 10
233 Central Arkansas 10.5%   8 - 10 5 - 2 -4.2      -2.6 239 -1.6 227 68.2 197 -5.3 240 -3.3 4
258 Eastern Kentucky 5.5%   5 - 14 3 - 5 -5.3      +0.3 150 -5.6 333 68.5 192 -8.7 308 -9.6 9
283 Jacksonville 2.9%   6 - 13 3 - 5 -7.2      -4.7 299 -2.5 252 62.1 344 -7.4 285 -8.6 7
302 Bellarmine 1.8%   5 - 13 2 - 6 -8.2      +1.7 122 -9.9 363 65.3 277 -9.0 313 -11.8 11
328 North Alabama 0.4%   4 - 12 1 - 6 -10.4      -4.2 284 -6.3 343 66.6 243 -10.3 326 -18.7 12
329 West Georgia 0.0%   8 - 10 4 - 4 -10.4      -4.8 302 -5.6 335 70.2 143 -6.2 263 -6.7 5
330 Stetson 0.7%   5 - 14 3 - 5 -10.5      -4.9 303 -5.5 331 69.0 173 -8.7 307 -6.8 6
348 North Florida 0.3%   3 - 16 3 - 5 -12.3      -0.3 172 -11.9 365 77.1 22 -13.2 347 -8.6 7


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 258 Eastern Kentucky 76 283 Jacksonville 81   
Sat, Jan 24 186 Queens 66 329 West Georgia 74   
Sat, Jan 24 302 Bellarmine 114 348 North Florida 117   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 233 Central Arkansas 75 186 Queens 81 70%   
Wed, Jan 28 175 Austin Peay 76 258 Eastern Kentucky 75 54%   
Wed, Jan 28 302 Bellarmine 81 329 West Georgia 76 69%   
Thu, Jan 29 283 Jacksonville 69 167 Lipscomb 72 64%   
Thu, Jan 29 348 North Florida 85 330 Stetson 84 55%   
Thu, Jan 29 231 Florida Gulf Coast 81 328 North Alabama 72 81%   
Sat, Jan 31 233 Central Arkansas 78 258 Eastern Kentucky 74 65%   
Sat, Jan 31 231 Florida Gulf Coast 73 283 Jacksonville 72 50%   
Sat, Jan 31 328 North Alabama 73 330 Stetson 76 61%   
Sat, Jan 31 302 Bellarmine 81 186 Queens 84 63%   
Sat, Jan 31 175 Austin Peay 77 329 West Georgia 71 73%   
Sat, Jan 31 167 Lipscomb 90 348 North Florida 82 79%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 2.0 39.2 30.4 22.4 6.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 2.0 42.2 29.0 21.3 6.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Queens 2.0 41.6 30.1 20.3 6.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 6.1 0.0 0.2 2.4 16.0 27.5 18.8 13.0 9.0 6.4 3.9 2.1 0.9
Central Arkansas 3.8 5.3 11.0 20.2 40.7 12.8 5.5 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 6.5 0.1 0.6 2.6 11.5 20.1 20.3 15.6 12.3 8.1 5.4 2.4 0.9
Jacksonville 6.9 0.1 0.3 1.6 8.2 18.5 18.5 15.8 13.2 10.7 7.4 4.6 1.3
Bellarmine 8.7 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.7 9.0 11.3 14.8 16.4 18.1 13.6 8.7
North Alabama 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.2 6.4 8.9 14.1 20.8 41.7
West Georgia 7.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 6.0 13.1 17.5 17.9 16.2 12.9 8.5 4.5 2.1
Stetson 8.0 0.1 0.5 4.3 10.0 13.1 14.6 15.2 15.3 12.1 9.8 5.2
North Florida 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.1 8.5 11.5 15.0 19.0 23.4 11.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 14 - 4 19 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.7 13.6 21.8 23.9 19.0 9.6 2.2
Austin Peay 14 - 4 18 - 9 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.6 13.1 20.9 23.2 20.4 10.2 2.8
Queens 14 - 4 18 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.1 13.2 21.6 24.2 19.5 10.1 2.6
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 9 13 - 16 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 7.4 14.3 21.3 24.0 18.5 9.1 2.0
Central Arkansas 11 - 7 14 - 15 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.2 11.4 19.0 22.4 19.4 12.8 5.7 1.6 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 8 - 10 10 - 19 0.1 1.1 4.2 11.0 18.2 22.6 20.4 14.0 6.3 1.8 0.2
Jacksonville 8 - 10 11 - 18 0.3 1.7 6.2 13.4 20.3 22.8 18.6 10.8 4.6 1.2 0.1
Bellarmine 6 - 12 9 - 19 0.5 3.4 10.1 17.9 22.9 21.3 14.0 6.9 2.6 0.5 0.0
North Alabama 5 - 13 8 - 19 2.0 7.8 16.5 22.2 21.3 16.4 8.7 3.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 8 - 10 12 - 16 1.7 7.5 17.2 23.3 23.1 15.4 8.0 2.9 0.7 0.1
Stetson 7 - 11 9 - 20 1.0 5.3 12.9 20.8 23.0 18.5 11.5 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.0
North Florida 6 - 12 6 - 23 4.6 15.4 24.4 23.8 17.3 9.3 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 39.2% 23.0 12.7 3.3 0.2 0.0
Austin Peay 42.2% 25.5 13.2 3.3 0.2 0.0
Queens 41.6% 25.1 13.2 3.1 0.2 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0
Central Arkansas 5.3% 2.0 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine
North Alabama
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson
North Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 15   0.5 3.8 11.1 9.6 1.1 73.9 0.0%
Austin Peay 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.6 9.0 10.2 1.7 76.1 0.0%
Queens 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.7 10.8 3.6 79.8 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 5.7 92.3 0.0%
Central Arkansas 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.5 6.4 89.5 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.1 94.6 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.7 97.1 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.8 98.2 0.0%
North Alabama 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
North Florida 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.6% 0.9 7.4 92.6
2nd Round 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 26.1% 0.1% 26.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 23.9% 0.2% 23.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 20.2% 0.5% 20.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 7.7% 3.6% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 10.5% 2.8% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.5% 4.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.9% 2.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%