Queens
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #186
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 #175
Pace 70.7 #131
Improvement +0.5 #159

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #98 B- C+ C C B-
Defense #311 D C D C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #186 1.23 #100 +1.2 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #316 0.84 #61 -1.9 #275
Three Pointers 48% #45 1.01 #194 +3.4 #69
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #101 +2.7 #104
Freethrows 0.30 #198 76% #74 0.23 #155
Second Chance 30.6% #185 1.12 #87 0.34 #127
Turnovers 16.2% #163
Total Offense +2.9 #98

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #41 1.18 #204 -3.7 #301
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #284 0.77 #200 +1.2 #103
Three Pointers 39% #248 1.15 #336 -1.3 #245
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #303 -3.9 #302
Freethrows 0.33 #272 72% #145 0.23 #261
Second Chance 34.1% #313 0.97 #79 0.33 #214
Turnovers 14.1% #315
Total Defense -4.8 #311

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #71 1.7% #323
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #116 5.8% #289
Possession Length 16.2 #72 18.1 #298
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #189 0.18 #228
Improvement -2.1 #294 +2.6 #47

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.2% 21.6% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 94.7% 97.7% 88.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 41.6% 49.3% 24.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round20.0% 21.5% 16.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 418 - 419 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 124 Winthrop L 74 - 81 35% -2  0 - 1 -5 -1 D B F -4 A- F C-
 Sat, Nov 8 34 @Villanova L 74 - 94 5% -12  0 - 2 -3 +11 A+ F F+ -14 C+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 11 116 @Duquesne L 81 - 87 OT 22% -9  0 - 3 +0 -4 C F D +5 C+ A- C
 Sat, Nov 15 277 Sacred Heart W 81 - 64 77% +13  1 - 3 +7 +2 B+ C- F +6 B- A+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 305 UNC Greensboro W 101 - 94 82% +8  2 - 3 -4 +22 A+ B- A- -27 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 159 @Furman L 79 - 90 31% -11  2 - 4 -8 +17 C+ A- A+ -26 F B- F
 Fri, Nov 28 22 @Virginia L 69 - 94 3% -12  2 - 5 -5 +10 C- A+ D- -17 F A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 107 - 74 95% +14  3 - 5 +12 +19 A+ A- C -9 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 12 359 South Carolina St. W 102 - 78 92% +19  4 - 5 +6 +19 B C A+ -13 D- F D+
 Sun, Dec 14 68 @Wake Forest L 73 - 111 11% -19  4 - 6 -27 +4 B D+ B -30 F D C-
 Tue, Dec 16 19 @Arkansas L 80 - 108 3% -20  4 - 7 -8 +4 C+ C+ F -9 D- F A
 Mon, Dec 29 25 @Auburn L 65 - 106 4% -30  4 - 8 -23 -5 F C+ C- -16 F C+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 258 Eastern Kentucky W 91 - 89 73% +1  5 - 8 1 - 0 -6 +11 C A A+ -18 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 302 Bellarmine W 98 - 76 81% +10  6 - 8 2 - 0 +11 +12 B- B- C- -1 F+ A- B
 Thu, Jan 8 283 @Jacksonville W 77 - 51 59% +15  7 - 8 3 - 0 +22 +9 A+ F D+ +15 A C- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 348 @North Florida W 89 - 82 76% +2  8 - 8 4 - 0 -2 +3 D+ B C -5 D+ C F
 Thu, Jan 15 231 @Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 74 47% +6  9 - 8 5 - 0 +10 +8 D+ C A+ +2 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 330 @Stetson W 87 - 81 71% +8  10 - 8 6 - 0 -1 +11 C+ D A+ -12 F+ D+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 328 North Alabama W 87 - 62 86% +10  11 - 8 7 - 0 +12 +9 B B D- +3 C+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 329 @West Georgia L 66 - 74 70% -4  11 - 9 7 - 1 -15 -8 F B- F+ -8 F A- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 233 Central Arkansas W 81 - 76 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 302 @Bellarmine W 84 - 81 63%
 Thu, Feb 5 283 Jacksonville W 78 - 70 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 348 North Florida W 96 - 83 90%
 Wed, Feb 11 175 Austin Peay W 79 - 77 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 167 Lipscomb W 82 - 80 56%
 Wed, Feb 18 328 @North Alabama W 82 - 76 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 329 West Georgia W 86 - 74 86%
 Wed, Feb 25 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 81 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 233 @Central Arkansas L 78 - 79 48%
Totals 18 - 12 14 - 4 -2 +3 B- C+ C -5 D C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.7 10.4 15.7 9.9 2.6 41.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.0 11.1 11.9 3.7 0.1 30.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 7.9 7.6 1.9 0.1 20.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.1 13.2 21.6 24.2 19.5 10.1 2.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6
16-2 98.7% 9.9    8.6 1.3 0.0
15-3 80.5% 15.7    9.6 5.5 0.6
14-4 42.9% 10.4    3.8 5.1 1.5 0.1
13-5 12.5% 2.7    0.5 1.2 0.9 0.1
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 41.6% 41.6 25.1 13.2 3.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.6% 34.3% 34.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.7
16-2 10.1% 30.1% 30.1% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.0 7.0
15-3 19.5% 25.0% 25.0% 14.7 0.1 1.7 2.9 0.2 14.6
14-4 24.2% 20.9% 20.9% 15.0 0.0 0.9 3.3 0.9 19.2
13-5 21.6% 17.2% 17.2% 15.2 0.0 0.3 2.4 1.0 17.9
12-6 13.2% 13.6% 13.6% 15.4 0.0 0.9 0.8 11.4
11-7 6.1% 9.8% 9.8% 15.6 0.2 0.4 5.5
10-8 2.1% 9.4% 9.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.9
9-9 0.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 14.8 79.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 13.3 0.6 12.8 50.6 33.3 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%