North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#344
Expected Predictive Rating-16.7#355
Pace78.2#19
Improvement-0.1#196

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#262
First Shot-2.6#253
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#248
Layup/Dunks-4.7#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#20
Freethrows-5.3#363
Improvement-0.8#246

Defense
Total Defense-7.9#359
First Shot-2.1#244
After Offensive Rebounds-5.8#363
Layups/Dunks-5.1#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#152
Freethrows+1.6#85
Improvement+0.7#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.5% 14.5% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 36.2% 29.0% 37.9%
First Four0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 19.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 45 - 116 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 13 @Florida L 64-104 1%     0 - 1 -19.1 -5.5 -8.7
  Wed, Nov 12 18 @Tennessee L 66-99 1%     0 - 2 -13.8 -2.2 -9.0
  Wed, Nov 19 244 @Wofford L 78-86 18%     0 - 3 -9.7 +1.1 -10.5
  Sat, Nov 22 202 Southern Miss L 83-92 20%     0 - 4 -11.8 +6.5 -18.1
  Sun, Nov 23 327 Prairie View L 82-85 43%     0 - 5 -12.8 +1.8 -14.5
  Tue, Dec 2 233 SIU Edwardsville L 63-72 33%     0 - 6 -16.0 -6.4 -10.3
  Sun, Dec 7 5 @Gonzaga L 58-109 0.3%    0 - 7 -26.2 -8.9 -12.5
  Sat, Dec 13 72 @Dayton L 61-84 3%     0 - 8 -12.1 -4.5 -8.0
  Thu, Dec 18 266 @Charleston Southern L 76-85 20%    
  Sun, Dec 21 33 @Miami (FL) L 68-96 0.5%   
  Sun, Dec 28 138 Columbia L 76-86 17%    
  Thu, Jan 1 193 @Austin Peay L 71-84 12%    
  Sat, Jan 3 142 @Lipscomb L 73-89 7%    
  Thu, Jan 8 315 West Georgia W 81-80 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 191 Queens L 83-90 27%    
  Thu, Jan 15 196 @North Alabama L 72-84 13%    
  Sat, Jan 17 283 @Central Arkansas L 76-84 23%    
  Thu, Jan 22 257 Eastern Kentucky L 81-84 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 295 Bellarmine L 81-82 46%    
  Thu, Jan 29 346 Stetson W 81-78 61%    
  Sat, Jan 31 142 Lipscomb L 76-86 19%    
  Thu, Feb 5 315 @West Georgia L 78-84 31%    
  Sat, Feb 7 191 @Queens L 80-93 13%    
  Wed, Feb 11 181 @Florida Gulf Coast L 77-90 12%    
  Sat, Feb 14 291 @Jacksonville L 73-80 25%    
  Thu, Feb 19 193 Austin Peay L 74-81 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 346 @Stetson L 78-81 40%    
  Thu, Feb 26 181 Florida Gulf Coast L 80-87 26%    
  Sat, Feb 28 291 Jacksonville L 76-77 45%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.2 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.7 3.7 0.5 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 7.1 5.0 0.9 0.0 16.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 5.1 8.2 5.4 1.2 0.1 21.2 11th
12th 1.0 3.8 7.2 7.6 4.2 1.0 0.0 24.7 12th
Total 1.0 3.8 8.4 13.2 15.8 16.1 14.2 10.6 7.5 4.6 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 57.1% 0.0    0.0
14-4 53.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 33.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.6% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.3% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.1 1.2
10-8 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.6
9-9 4.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.5
8-10 7.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.5
7-11 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-12 14.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.1
5-13 16.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-14 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.7
3-15 13.2% 13.2
2-16 8.4% 8.4
1-17 3.8% 3.8
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%