North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.3 #348
Expected Predictive Rating -13.2 #347
Pace 77.1 #22
Improvement +2.1 #85

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #172 C+ C- C- D C+
Defense #365 D- F F+ B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.17 #162 -3.1 #289
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #322 0.90 #33 -1.9 #277
Three Pointers 54% #5 1.04 #143 +7.3 #14
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #115 +2.3 #115
Freethrows 0.22 #358 80% #5 0.17 #323
Second Chance 24.0% #335 1.20 #31 0.29 #245
Turnovers 17.7% #261
Total Offense -0.3 #172

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #115 1.28 #324 -4.0 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #304 0.98 #364 -0.2 #201
Three Pointers 43% #123 1.03 #205 -1.2 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #331 -5.4 #331
Freethrows 0.28 #93 71% #96 0.19 #89
Second Chance 38.3% #359 1.23 #352 0.47 #364
Turnovers 12.6% #350
Total Defense -11.9 #365

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #107 1.5% #305
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #122 9.0% #327
Possession Length 17.0 #138 15.7 #13
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #269 0.25 #359
Improvement +2.9 #46 -0.8 #233

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.2% 8.2% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.2% 15.2% 39.5%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 46 - 126 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 10 @Florida L 64 - 104 0% -21  0 - 1 -17 -6 F A- F+ -7 A+ F B
 Wed, Nov 12 20 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 1% -15  0 - 2 -13 -1 C B F+ -9 C+ F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 211 @Wofford L 78 - 86 13% -1  0 - 3 -8 -0 B- F C -8 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 262 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 25% +0  0 - 4 -14 +7 A+ F F -22 F F F+
 Sun, Nov 23 345 Prairie View L 82 - 85 49% +5  0 - 5 -15 +1 A+ C+ F -16 D C- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 264 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 36% -1  0 - 6 -18 -6 C- D+ D- -12 D F+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 11 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0% -26  0 - 7 -28 -9 C- D+ D -14 D F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 86 @Dayton L 61 - 84 3% -21  0 - 8 -13 -4 F B- C+ -10 F C F+
 Thu, Dec 18 230 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 15% -12  0 - 9 -24 +6 B- D+ C -27 F C+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 39 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1% -18  0 - 10 -22 -2 D- B F -17 D- F+ D
 Sun, Dec 28 168 Columbia L 82 - 90 21% -1  0 - 11 -12 +5 B+ F+ B- -16 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 1 175 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 10% -8  0 - 12 0 - 1 -17 +5 C+ F+ C+ -20 C F F
 Sat, Jan 3 167 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 9% -2  0 - 13 0 - 2 -6 +3 C+ D- C- -8 B+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 329 West Georgia L 73 - 85 55% -6  0 - 14 0 - 3 -25 -8 F+ A F -17 F F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 186 Queens L 82 - 89 24% -2  0 - 15 0 - 4 -12 +0 C D+ B- -12 C F F+
 Thu, Jan 15 328 @North Alabama W 105 - 91 32% +10  1 - 15 1 - 4 +7 +27 A+ B B+ -21 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 233 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 98 15% -23  1 - 16 1 - 5 -30 -4 C F D+ -25 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 258 Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 85 35% +2  2 - 16 2 - 5 -6 +6 B B- D -12 D+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 302 Bellarmine W 117 - 114 OT 46% +6  3 - 16 3 - 5 -8 +19 A+ A- A- -28 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 330 Stetson W 85 - 84 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 167 Lipscomb L 82 - 91 20%
 Thu, Feb 5 329 @West Georgia L 83 - 88 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 186 @Queens L 83 - 96 10%
 Wed, Feb 11 231 @Florida Gulf Coast L 82 - 93 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 283 @Jacksonville L 75 - 83 23%
 Thu, Feb 19 175 Austin Peay L 79 - 87 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 330 @Stetson L 82 - 87 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 231 Florida Gulf Coast L 85 - 90 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 283 Jacksonville L 78 - 80 42%
Totals 6 - 23 6 - 12 -12 +0 C+ C- C- -12 D- F F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.7 1.4 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.3 4.6 3.4 0.2 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 3.2 7.3 0.9 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 9.5 3.9 0.1 15.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 8.9 8.2 0.6 19.0 10th
11th 1.4 8.1 11.4 2.4 0.0 23.4 11th
12th 3.1 6.1 2.5 0.1 11.8 12th
Total 4.6 15.4 24.4 23.8 17.3 9.3 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
9-9 3.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.7
8-10 9.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.2
7-11 17.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.3
6-12 23.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 23.7
5-13 24.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.4
4-14 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
3-15 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.1%